Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

Following the win of the week, #4 Ole Miss (3-0) heads to The Swamp for a SEC battle with the #21 Florida Gators (3-0). Ole Miss is coming off a 32-24 win over former head coach Lane Kiffin, which sets the Rebels up for an emotional letdown spot. Maybe that is why Ole Miss is a +3.5 point underdog at Florida! The Gators beat FAU, Campbell, and won at Auburn last week — which doesn't quite stack up to the opponents that Ole Miss has faced.

The Rebels beat #24 Louisville (41-38), Charlotte (41-9), and #7 LSU (32-24) to start the season raising Ole Miss from its preseason ranking of #9. Trinidad Chambliss has been fantastic and is the Heisman favorite after throwing for 363 yards against LSU and totaling three touchdowns. Chambliss has 988 total yards through three games and nine touchdowns. Kewan Lacy has led Ole Miss in rushing all three games, plus wideouts Deuce Alexander and Traylon Ray have taken turns having monster games. This Rebels offense looks like a well-oiled machine, but can the defense hold back-to-back weeks against explosive offenses?

Florida has splash players all over the offense. The Gators' RB Jaden Baugh has ran for at least 136 yards in three-straight games, including 162 and three touchdowns at Auburn, while WR Vernell Brown III has four total touchdowns (2 rec, 2 PR) on offense and as a punt returner. QB Aaron Philo tossed at least 200 yards in three-consecutive games with eight total scores (6 pass, 2 rush). The offense is well-balanced with Philo and Baugh, similar to Chambliss and Lacy, which could set up for a shootout in The Swamp!

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Ole Miss vs Florida

• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• City: Gainesville, FL
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Ole Miss vs Florida

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Ole Miss Rebels (+130), Florida Gators (-155)
• Spread: Florida -3.5 (-108)
• Total: 58.5 points

#21 Florida Gators

Head Coach: Jon Sumrall
2026 Record: 3-0 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 59.0 (2nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 21.0 (T-63rd)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 61st
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 7th

The Florida Gators Offense:

Who would have thought that this Gators offense would average the second-most points per game through three weeks? Not me. The expectations for this group under Aaron Philo's leadership looks livelier than last year's with DJ Lagway. Philo had his worst performance of the season at Auburn last week (204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), but it didn't matter because Jaden Baugh ran wild for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Florida outgained Auburn, 495-373 in yards, and the Gators went 3-for-3 on fourth downs, but was penalized 16 times for 138 yards! Florida now has 27 penalties through three games.

Florida Player to Watch on Offense: RB Jaden Baugh

If Florida beats Ole Miss, then Jaden Baugh likely enters the Heisman conversation. I would slot him in my top 10 for sure if he posts another 100-yard outing, a touchdown, and a home win over the #4 ranked team in the nation. Florida's offense looks dynamic and while two of their three opponents were cupcakes, the Gators didn't take their foot off the gas. Baugh's 162 rushing yards at Auburn was the second-most in his career. Baugh ran for 266 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries versus Florida State in the 2025 regular season finale. He had five rushing touchdowns against Kentucky as a freshman.

The Florida Gators Defense:

The Florida offense was so good at keeping Auburn off the field, that the Florida defense was facing a fresh Tigers offense nearly every possession. The Gates won the time of possession battle 39:16-20:44 yet Auburn scored 39 points in under 21 minutes. The Tigers recorded 22 first downs, a 6-of-12 mark on third downs, and 373 total yards of offense. Auburn had 11 drives and scored on six of them against Florida's defense (5 TDs, 1 FG).

Florida Player to Watch on Defense: LB Jayden Woods

Jaden Baugh isn't the only stud Jaden/Jayden on the team. Jayden Woods is one of the Gators defensive leaders and is off to a fast start in his sophomore year. After 27 tackles, 3.5 sacks, one interception, and one forced fumble as a freshman, Woods has turned around and posted 3.0 sacks, 15 tackles, and four tackles for a loss through three games. Woods had 2.5 sacks, 3.5 TFL and six tackles at Auburn last week and will be a key component to slowing down Chambliss and Lacy.

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#4 Ole Miss Rebels

Head Coach: Pete Golding
2026 Record: 3-0 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 38th (38.0)
Defensive Points Per Game: 23.6 (78th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 19th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 11th

The Ole Miss Rebels Offense:

The Rebels put up 426 total yards of offense against LSU, 420 versus Charlotte, and 488 against Louisville. This Ole Miss offense is consistent and with 41, 41, and 32 points scored, they are one of the highest scoring teams in the SEC. Ole Miss has so many dynamic playmakers starting with the QB-RB duo, Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. The two have a combined 13 touchdowns through three games. This could be a shootout with those two at the helm. Ole Miss has scored in the red zone every time so far this year, as has Florida.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: QB Trinidad Chambliss

It's interesting that Chambliss is the Heisman frontrunner yet Florida is favored to beat Ole Miss this weekend. Something has to give. Chambliss has two phenomenal fourth quarter drives to his resume this year, the go-ahead rushing score versus LSU followed by a two-point conversion, and the game-winning field goal drive versus Louisville. Chambliss has 968 total yards and nine touchdowns this season. He does have two interceptions, which is on pace to finish far worse than his amazing 22-3 TD-to-INT ratio from last year.

The Ole Miss Rebels Defense:

The Ole Miss defense allowed Louisville and LSU to form comebacks of 14 and 17 this season, but neither resulted in a loss as Chambliss is arguably the best two-minute quarterback in the country. The Rebels held LSU to 330 yards of offense, outgaining them by almost 100 yards. 168 of those yards came from the air and Ole Miss grabbed an interception, plus two sacks and eight tackles for a loss.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: LB Luke Ferrelli

Despite being from California, Luke Ferrelli is feeling at home with Ole Miss. The former Cal linebacker is second on the Rebels with 19 tackles in the early season, including seven in back-to-back games. Ferrelli has one sack and one pass breakup as well to start the season, but will be in the running to lead this team in total tackles and solo. With Cal, Ferrelli recorded 91 tackles as a freshman, ranking second on the team, and added one sack, one interception, and one pass deflection.

Ole Miss and Florida Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Under
• Florida is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Over
• Ole Miss is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2021
• Ole Miss is 4-3 to the Under as a road underdog since 2021
• Florida went 3-0 to the Under as a home favorite in 2025 and 1-2 ATS
• Florida is 9-10 ATS as the home team since 2023
• Ole Miss is 11-10-2 ATS on the road since 2021
• Ole Miss is 14-9 to the Under on the road since 2021

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Over 58.5:

"The whole world will be on Florida -3.5 because oddsmakers are setting up a trap game. A trap for which team? Well, that's for us to find out. Ole Miss is in an obvious letdown spot after the emotional win over LSU, while Florida put together a nice win at Auburn, but the Auburn Tigers can't compare to Louisville or LSU. The Rebels have more talent and should cover the +3.5, but I like the Over 58.5 more. Both offenses have a plethora of talent to feed and getting the ball in space to those guys will be the name of the game on Saturday. I lean Ole Miss +3.5 and the Over 58.5. Both Ole Miss and Florida have also scored on every single red zone possession this season, which is a green flag ahead of this matchup."

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