MC&J: Ohio State hopes to make a statement in its Big Ten opener

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Last week ATS: 16-9 (7-2 National, 9-7 B1G)

Season ATS: 41-33 (15-8 National, 26-25 B1G)

Last week saw MC&J rebound nicely after struggling in the second full weekend of the college football regular season.

Now that a lot of the Big Ten non-conference games with ridiculous spreads are out of the way, hopefully we can improve our conference record since our mark in national games looks pretty good so far.

National Games

No. 1 Texas (-5.5) v. No. 14 Tennessee – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC

After beating Ohio State in Austin two weeks ago, many are likely expecting Texas to leave Knoxville with a win on Saturday. Would those expecting the Longhorns to win be thinking the same if the Buckeyes hadn’t blown a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter?

Despite engineering the fourth quarter comeback against Ohio State, I’m still not sold on Arch Manning. Will he look sharp as he has to deal with a raucous crowd at Neyland? Manning didn’t look go in road losses at Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia last year. There also will undoubtedly be even more pressure on him as he will be taking snaps in the stadium where his uncle Peyton had a legendary college career.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel has done a great job easing freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon in as starter, using a potent rushing attack that is headlined by DeSean Bishop. The Buckeyes were able to find success on the ground against Texas, so I’m expecting the Volunteers to do the same.

The difference will be Tennessee won’t blow a fourth quarter lead.

Tennessee 31, Texas 27

No. 4 Ole Miss v. No. 21 Florida (-3.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC

This is one of those point spreads that makes you scratch your head. Some of the reason Ole Miss might be an underdog in this game is because running back Kewan Lacy has already been ruled out of Saturday’s game.

Even without Lacy, Heisman Trophy contender Trinidad Chambliss is still running the offense. Also, maybe Vegas is banking on the Rebels having a hangover after the emotional win over LSU.

Florida’s offense has looked great so far this season, scoring at least 44 points in each of their first three games. If the performance by the defense of the Gators last week is any indication, they’ll need to score at least 44 points to win on Saturday. It’s not like Auburn is an offensive juggernaut, so what will Chambliss and company be able to do?

I’m probably a sucker for taking Ole Miss here. Quarterback Aaron Philo and Jaden Baugh have put up big numbers for Florida this year, but the Rebels are definitely more tested, already having two wins over ranked teams.

Ole Miss 38, Florida 30

No. 23 Texas A&M v. No. 10 LSU (-8.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Both teams are coming off losses in their SEC openers last week. LSU at least showed a little bit of life, erasing a 24-7 deficit to tie Ole Miss in Oxford before the Rebels scored a touchdown with just over six minutes left in the game. The Tigers will be without star tight end Trey’Dez Green, who was injured in last Saturday’s loss.

Texas A&M looked listless at home last week against Kentucky, letting the Wildcats score 28 unanswered points after the Aggies took an early 7-0 lead. About the only bright spot for Texas A&M in the loss was wide receiver Mario Craver, who caught 11 passes for 119 yards.

Even during their run to the CFP last year I wasn’t impressed with Texas A&M. I could see the Aggies losing three or four more games this year with the remaining schedule they have. One of those losses comes on Saturday night in Baton Rouge to Lane Kiffin and LSU.

LSU 35, Texas A&M 23

B1G Games

Illinois v. No. 7 Ohio State (-27.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX

If we’re being honest, even though Ohio State beat Kent State 59-3 last week, the Buckeyes didn’t look all that great. Short yardage is still an issue for the offense, Jeremiah Smith is the only wide receiver with a pulse right now, and the defensive line isn’t generating much pressure.

Despite all the negativity when it comes to their on-field performance, Ohio State still has the look of a national championship contender.

Illinois enters this week’s game with a 2-1 record after easily handling Southern Illinois last week to bounce back from their defeat to Duke. Former Michigan State quarterback Katin Houser has returned to the Big Ten with the Fighting Illini after spending some time at East Carolina.

Houser has already tossed eight touchdowns this year, with seven scores going to Collin Dixon.

Winning by four touchdowns against a Bret Bielema team might seem like a lot, but this isn’t quite as good of an Illinois team as we have seen over the last couple years. The Fighting Illini will make a bowl, they just won’t end the season ranked.

This feels like a game where the Buckeyes reestablish themselves as the cream of the crop in the Big Ten with a blowout to retain Illibuck.

Ohio State 45, Illinois 13

No. 17 Iowa v. No. 18 Michigan (-5.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS

This has the feeling of a game where the first team to score wins. Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood is coming off his first 200-yard passing game of the season, throwing for 222 yards and two scores in a 52-17 win over UTEP.

The first half was a lot closer than the final score would indicate, as the Wolverines only held a 17-14 lead at the break.

For giving Underwood grief about having his first 200-yard passing game last week, Hank Brown still hasn’t reached that mark through three games this season. At least Brown has been accurate, completing at least 60 percent of his passes in each game, including going 12 for 12 in a 55-0 win over Northern Iowa last week.

A second half blowout of UTEP doesn’t fix what ails Michigan. There are serious questions about Underwood’s ability as a quarterback, while Kyle Whittingham looks lost in his first season as head coach in Ann Arbor. Iowa wins on Saturday to take an undefeated record into next week’s showdown with Ohio State in Iowa City.

Iowa 21, Michigan 17

No. 20 Oregon (-2.5) v. No. 12 USC – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC

Oregon was able to rebound from their loss to Oklahoma State by hanging 84 points on mighty Portland State. Now the Ducks will try and beat an actual team when they head down to Los Angeles to take on USC. Now we get to see if the loss to the Cowboys a couple weeks ago was just a fluke or if the Ducks are a flawed team.

I’m still not sure how good the Trojans are since their four wins so far have come against teams with no pulse. One thing about USC that we do know is their defense isn’t very good. The Trojans have allowed at least 26 points in three of their four games this season.

The group is likely in for another tough night at the office, as they’ll be trying to slow down Dante Moore and the high-powered Oregon offense.

This comes down to me trusting Dan Lanning more than Lincoln Riley. Oregon might have been a bit overrated to start the season but I think they are a more complete team than USC.

Plus, I know the Trojans won’t have much of a home-field advantage since it’s obvious USC games aren’t much of a draw.

Oregon 42, USC 31

Rapid Fire Picks

National

Clemson (-1.5) v. California – Friday 9/25 10:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

California 24, Clemson 21

Wake Forest v. N0. 16 Louisville (-12.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Louisville 38, Wake Forest 23

Oklahoma v. No. 2 Georgia (-13.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Georgia 28, Oklahoma 13

No. 15 Utah (-8.5) v. Iowa State – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX

Utah 27, Iowa State 20

South Carolina v. No. 8 Alabama (-12.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Alabama 38, South Carolina 21

No. 19 Missouri v. No. 24 Mississippi State (-5.5) – 7:45 p.m. ET – SEC Network

Missouri 31, Mississippi State 28

B1G

Howard v. Rutgers (-42.5) – Friday 9/25 7:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Rutgers 54, Howard 10

Northwestern v. No. 5 Indiana (-20.5) – Friday 9/25 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX

Indiana 41, Northwestern 17

UCLA (-1.5) v. Maryland – 1:30 p.m. ET – BTN

UCLA 35, Maryland 24

No. 3 Notre Dame (-27.5) v. Purdue – 2:00 p.m. ET – Peacock

Notre Dame 45, Purdue 14

Wisconsin v. No. 13 Penn State (-9.5) – 5:00 p.m. ET – Peacock

Penn State 27, Wisconsin 13

Nebraska (-5.5) v. Michigan State – 5:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Nebraska 31, Michigan State 21

Minnesota v. Washington (-9.5) – 11:00 p.m. ET – FOX

Washington 28, Minnesota 24

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