Ole Miss vs Florida: Preview and Prediction

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Ole Miss vs Florida — | Source: Lastwordonsports.com – Tony Siracusa, CFB Managing Editor

Week four of the college football season is far and away the best we’ve seen of the 2026 season to this point. It features six matchups between ranked teams. One of those is Ole Miss vs Florida, taking place in Gainesville. For the Gators, they come in after a big win on the road at Auburn. As for the Rebels, they come into this one in a classic letdown spot, after defeating LSU and Lane Kiffin in his return to Oxford, and beginning to look like a legitimate contender in the process.

With the LSU win, Ole Miss jumped into the top five of the AP Poll. Now they take those expectations on the road to a hostile environment to take on a much-improved Florida team in head coach Jon Sumrall’s first year with the Gators.

Can the Rebels handle the expectations and the environment and pick up the win, or does Florida manage to pull off a big upset at home?

Previewing Ole Miss vs Florida

Keys for Florida to Pull Off the Upset

For the Gators, it’s going to start with the rushing attack. Running back Jadan Baugh is currently second in the country in rushing yards, with 458 yards on the ground. He also has eight rushing touchdowns through the first three games. Against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled a bit against the run, this is where Florida is going to have to lean to have success on offense.

If they can find success with Baugh, it has the chance to open the passing game with quarterback Aaron Philo. While the yardage won’t blow you away, Philo has been efficient so far in 2026, completing 73% of his passes, adding six touchdowns to the mix. And while he’s not necessarily a guy that will beat you himself, he can certainly have success if the Gators’ rushing attack opens up windows in the Rebels’ secondary.

As for the Florida defense, it’s going to be a question of whether the secondary can hold up against a good Ole Miss passing attack. So far this year, the Gators rushing defense has been exceptional, only allowing 284 yards rushing so far this season. The secondary, though, has been a bit of a different story. Against Florida Atlantic in the season opener, they gave up 276 yards passing. Last week against Auburn, they gave up another 271 yards passing to a Tigers offense that isn’t exactly known for being pass-heavy. Needless to say, if the secondary doesn’t play better, the Ole Miss offense is likely going to be able to find plenty of success.

How Does Ole Miss Get the Road Win?

As previously mentioned, it’s going to start with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss attacking the Gator secondary. The Ole Miss offense has had a ton of success through the air this season, throwing for 992 yards in three games. If Chambliss can get the ball to his playmakers on the perimeter, like Deuce Alexander and Traylon Ray, they should have success.

The hope would then be that success through the air opens up some rushing lanes for Kewan Lacy, who’s questionable for this one, or JT Lindsey. So far, the Ole Miss running game has been nearly nonexistent this season, as they’ve only rushed for 342 yards as a team. (Yes, Baugh has over 100 yards rushing more than the entire Rebel team.) If Ole Miss can find even a hint of a rushing game in this one, it’ll go a long way in helping them leave Gainesville with a win.

On the other side of the ball, the Rebels are going to have to have success at the line of scrimmage. If Will Echoles, Suntarine Perkins, and the rest of the front seven can get pressure on Philo and fill gaps in the running game, the defense should find success at slowing down the Gator offense. But if they struggle to finish tackles and give Philo time to find open windows in the secondary (there have been plenty this season), this is a game that’s going to come down to the wire.

Ole Miss vs Florida: Predictions

While the Gators have improved drastically in Sumrall’s first season, Ole Miss still has the edge in this one from a talent standpoint. This matchup is largely going to come down to how well the Rebels handle the atmosphere and put the huge emotional roller coaster from last week behind them. In 2024, a trip to The Swamp ultimately proved to be what kept Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff. Now, two years later, they try to avoid potentially watching history repeat itself.

In the end, expect both defenses to do a decent job at slowing down their opponent’s rushing attack. That turns this one into a battle of quarterbacks. And with a Heisman hopeful playing the position for them, Ole Miss has the clear edge in that regard.

It’s going to be close, but it seems safe to think that Chambliss makes more plays down the stretch in a tight game. Because of that, take Ole Miss to escape The Swamp, sneaking away with a close victory.

Ole Miss 41, Florida 31

Main Image: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images