Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

After last year's 56-30 thriller between Notre Dame (3-0) and Purdue (1-2), what will these teams give us on NBC and Peacock? Entering this meeting, there is a different narrative around #3 Notre Dame. The Irish were 0-2 when they hosted Purdue and took out their frustrations on them, but failed to cover the final spread of -26.5 and -27.5. This year, they are being talked about as National Title contenders and have arguably the best defense in the country. Purdue has improved in a lot of ways, but oddsmakers see another blowout as the Irish are pegged as -27.5 point favorites, the same as last year.

Notre Dame has opened the year with wins over Wisconsin (41-13), Rice (52-0), and Michigan State 927-10). Those teams are a combined 5-4 to start the season with two of those wins coming versus FCS programs. However, the Irish have been dominant. In the last two games, Notre Dame has permitted 295 total yards and 10 points! The running game was taken over by Nolan James Jr. against Michigan State as he had 121 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown. Michigan State had 167 yards themselves, so James Jr. wasn't far off from outgaining the Spartans. CJ Carr is coming off his first game without a passing touchdown in his two-year career, but was an efficient 18-of-24 (75%) for 234 yards.

Purdue was a punching bag last year with 10-straight losses and eight of them giving up 27-plus points. This year, Purdue is still giving up points with 90 combined points allowed in the last two games (both losses) to Wake Forest (38-36 2OT) and UCLA (52-38), while the offense plays keep up. Ryan Browne is in his second full year as a starter and has 1,024 passing yards (5th) and a 7:1 TD to INT ratio compared to a 9:10 ratio last season, plus the running game looks lightyears better with Fame Ijeboi. Purdue scored 30 points last year versus Notre Dame, but gave up 56. The game total for this matchup is 58.5, which is a touchdown higher than last year's 51.5. Despite that, models project Purdue to fall in the ballpark of 14-17 points.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Notre Dame vs Purdue

• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM Eastern
• Site: Ross-Ade Stadium
• City: West Lafayette, IN
• TV/Streaming: NBC | Peacock

Game Odds for Notre Dame vs Purdue

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4500), Purdue Boilermakers (+1700)
• Spread: Notre Dame -27.5 (-118)
• Total: 58.5 points

#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2026 Record: 3-0
Offensive Points Per Game: 46.5 (T-21st)
Defensive Points Per Game: 6.5 (T-5th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 65th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 24th

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense:

Last week Notre Dame almost had more rushing yards (161) than Michigan State had total yards (167). Nolan James Jr. commanded the backfield with 21 carries and 121 yards, plus a score. Aneyas Williams added nine attempts for 25 yards and a score. All of Notre Dame's touchdowns came on the ground in the 27-10 win as CJ Carr scored from three yards out. The Irish have totaled at least 350 yards of offense in all three games and don't have a single turnover (8-0 TO margin).

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

CJ Carr didn't have a passing touchdown in his last game, marking the first time in his career that's happened. Carr finished with 234 yards on 18-of-24 versus Michigan State after tying his career-high of four passing touchdowns against Rice the week prior. Carr added nine rushing yards and a rushing score against Michigan State, so he did score once, but surely left more to be desired.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense:

The Irish's defense has started the year with 23 points allowed over three games. Notre Dame ranks 11th with 206.0 yards per game allowed, 22nd-rated red zone defense (66.7%), and the 33rd-ranked third-down defense (28%). Last week, Notre Dame held Michigan State to 167 total yards, 44 rushing yards (1.6 ypc), and forced two turnovers. The Irish held Rice to 128 yards two weeks ago, so that's 295 yards allowed in two games!

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: CB Leonard Moore

Leonard Moore is projected to be a first-round pick in the NFL and he will be lucky if he sees more than a few targets against Purdue. The shutdown corner had five tackles versus Wisconsin with one pass deflection, and another pass breakup against Michigan State. Moore won't rack up crazy tackling numbers, have multiple TFL, or sacks, but he will limit the opposing to receivers well below their yearly average and can shadow anyone in college. I get goosebumps thinking about Leonard Moore vs Malachi Toney on Nov. 7.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Head Coach: Barry Odom
2026 Record: 1-2 (0-1)
Offensive Points Per Game: 40.0 (T-39th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 28.5 (T-112th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 93rd
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 54th

The Purdue Boilermakers Offense:

Purdue has scored 44, 36, and 38 points through three games as junior QB Ryan Browne has started thriving. Browne had 9 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last year and has started with seven touchdowns to one pick this season. Browne is fifth in the country with 1,024 passing yards and the ground game looks improved with Fame Ijeboi (Minnesota). The Boilermakers offense is tied for 26th with a 52% third down percentage, 35th in team passing efficiency, and 29th in total yards (489.0).

Purdue Player to Watch on Offense: RB Fame Ijeboi

Purdue has six rushing touchdowns this season and Fame Ijeboi is responsible for all of them. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher has 55 carries for 248 yards. In a 2 OT win over Wake Forest, Ijeboi ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns on 27 attempts. Last week at UCLA, Ijeboi ran for two scores and 47 yards on 17 carries. You can bet that Ijeboi will command a hefty price tag in the portal next season if he continues at the pace he's on. Purdue ran for 11 touchdowns as a team last year (leader had 4) and Ijeboi has more than half of that already. 2015 was the last time Purdue had a player run for 10 touchdowns (Markell Jones) and 2008 since they've had a 1,000-yard rusher. Ijeboi could be the first since 2008 to accomplish both (Kory Sheets).

The Purdue Boilermakers Defense:

While the offense has been electric at times, the defense has been a doormat. Purdue allowed Wake Forest to score 38 points and put up 411 yards with 25 first downs, then UCLA posted 645 yards, 52 points, 35 first downs, and an incredible 11-of-14 mark on third downs. Notre Dame will slow this game down and if Purdue cannot get explosive plays, then the Irish could wear down the Boilermakers in the second half. Purdue gave up 28 second-half points at UCLA last weekend and had to fly back across the country to host Notre Dame. It's a tough spot.

Purdue Player to Watch on Defense: DB Don Saunders

After playing a small amount with Texas A&M in 2024 and a little with Utah in 2025, Dom Saunders has found a home with Purdue. Saunders is second on the team with 21 tackles and grabbed his first career interception in Week 1 versus Indiana State, which he took back 35 yards for a house call. Sanders tied the team-lead at UCLA with 10 tackles and eight being solo. He will need another quality game with Notre Dame's rushing attack and Hesiman hopeful quarterback.

Purdue and Notre Dame Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Notre Dame is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Under
• Purdue is 1-2 ATS and 3-0 to the Over
• Purdue is 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a home underdog and 5-4 to the Over
• Notre Dame is 10-5 to the Over as a road favorite under Marcus Freeman
• Notre Dame is 9-6 ATS to as a road favorite under Marcus Freeman and 12-3 on the ML
• Marcus Freeman is 34-19-2 ATS following a win
• Purdue went 4-7-1 ATS last season
• Notre Dame went 6-6 ATS last season
• Purdue went 8-4 to the Under last year
• Notre Dame went 7-5 to the Over

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Under between Notre Dame and Purdue:

"The last two games went Under the total for Notre Dame and all three went Under the 58.5 points set here. Last year, Notre Dame pounded Purdue 56-30, but that was also coming off the Irish starting 0-2 with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Notre Dame didn't cover that -26.5 point spread and that ruined my weekend (smh). Notre Dame isn't as motivated to blow Purdue out this year and I doubt both teams reach 30 points. Purdue would be lucky to hit 20 this time around. The Boilermakers team total is 15.5 and Notre Dame's total is 42.5. I lean the Under on both of those and the game total of 58.5."

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