Howard vs Rutgers Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Friday, September 25

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The Howard Bison take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Friday, Sept. 25. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.

Rutgers enters as a huge favorite of -44.5 on the spread, while Howard comes in as a massive underdog of +44.5. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.

Here’s my Howard vs. Rutgers prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 25.

My Rutgers vs. Howard best bet is on the Scarlet Knights to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Howard vs Rutgers Odds

• Howard vs Rutgers point spread: Rutgers -44.5, Howard +44.5
• Howard vs Rutgers over/under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)

Howard has already stepped up to the Big Ten level once this season, and it was every bit the mismatch you’d expect. Yes, Indiana is worlds better than Rutgers, but it’s still notable.

The Bison were blanked by Indiana, 55-0, while generating only 57 yards and four first downs. The advanced box score somehow looks even worse, as Howard finished with -0.59 EPA/Play, a 17% Success Rate and just 1.4 YPP.

Indiana also generated Havoc on 30% of Howard’s offensive snaps.

That’s the number that immediately caught my attention.

Quarterback Ja’Shawn Scroggins has been productive against comparable competition, throwing for 467 yards and four touchdowns while adding another 79 yards on the ground.

But the offensive line simply couldn’t give him enough time against Indiana’s front. Scroggins averaged just 2.16 yards per dropback in that matchup while Howard produced an explosive play rate of only 2%.

Now, the Bison have to deal with another massive disadvantage in the trenches against Rutgers.

Howard does have some talent on the perimeter, particularly wide receiver Se’Quan Osborne, but those weapons don’t mean much if Scroggins spends the afternoon operating behind the sticks.

I just don’t think this stays competitive, and considering oddsmakers already had Rutgers at -29 in the opener where they were completely dismantled by UMass, it seems like they’re begging people to bet the Bison.

This is undoubtedly a disgusting number to lay with an 0-3 football team. But I’m willing to get dirty.

Rutgers’ offense finally showed what it’s capable of last week against USC, piling up 460 yards in a 42-35 loss while consistently trading punches with one of the most explosive offenses in the country.

Quarterback Dylan Lonergan returned from injury and threw for 252 yards and three touchdowns, while running back Antwan Raymond added 122 yards and a score on the ground.

WR KJ Duff is the matchup nightmare here.

Duff already has 419 receiving yards and six touchdowns, ranking third nationally in receiving yards and tied for second in receiving touchdowns.

Rutgers also ranks 19th nationally in EPA/Play offensively and 23rd in opponent-adjusted offense.

The Scarlet Knights haven’t consistently finished drives this season, but that concern matters considerably less against a Howard defense that allowed Indiana to post a 54% Success Rate and +0.51 EPA/Play.

Laying 43 points with Rutgers requires a strong stomach, but this is one of those spots where the matchup matters more to me than the sticker price.

Howard’s one previous game against Big Ten personnel resulted in a 0th-percentile EPA/Play performance, a 17% Success Rate, and a 30% Havoc Rate allowed.

That’s complete offensive destruction. I understand Indiana is in its own class compared to this dumpster fire Rutgers team, but last week showed me enough that the Knights can lay the hammer down offensively.

Rutgers doesn’t need its defense to suddenly become elite; it needs to create enough negative plays to continually give Lonergan, Raymond, and Duff strong field position so they can rack up explosives early and often.

Offensively, the matchup couldn’t be softer, and I expect a ton of points from Greg Schiano’s team.

Indiana generated a 54% Success Rate and averaged 8.33 YPP against Howard, and Rutgers enters off 460 yards against USC.

There’s a situational angle here, too.

Rutgers is 0-3, Schiano is sitting on 99 career wins with the program, and the Scarlet Knights desperately need a performance that changes the temperature around this team before returning to Big Ten play. I don’t expect Schiano to call off the dogs early.

If Howard struggles to reach double digits, Rutgers reaching the 50s should be enough.

Hold your nose, and lay the number.

Pick: Rutgers -44.5 (-108)

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