No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan Preview: Reflections

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It is fitting for the Michigan Wolverines to begin Big Ten play against a team like the Iowa Hawkeyes that embodies the historic DNA of this conference. These squads are more alike than dissimilar, led by strong defenses that carry offenses still trying to reach their potential. The AP Poll has the teams one spot apart, while SP+ has the gap at three; thanks to the location of the game, Vegas favors the Wolverines, but in most regards this is a coin flip.

In terms of season outlook, Michigan cannot allow this coin to flip in the wrong direction. Perhaps the presumed giants looming later this season look more shaky than once expected, but the margin for error remains small when it comes to the College Football Playoff, even with the win over Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Iowa has a much lighter schedule, though begins a brutal stretch with games against Ohio State and Washington up next.

This contest goes beyond just the playoff resume, though. This is a chance to show that the defense is back to being one of the country’s best, while giving the offense a second shot to perform against another stout opponent (SP+ has Oklahoma’s defense No. 2, Iowa’s No. 9). Odds are Kyle Whittingham plays this one conservatively, but that still allows for plenty of room for execution.

No. 17 Iowa (3-0, 0-0) at No. 18 Michigan (3-0, 0-0)

Date & Time: Saturday, September 26, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS

The 2021 and 2023 Big Ten Championship Games are what spring to most Michigan fans’ minds when it comes to Iowa, but the two recent regular season games might be more instructive for this upcoming tilt. Four years ago, the Wolverines led 20-7 in Iowa City before a couple very late touchdowns, while the last meeting in Ann Arbor was a 10-3 Michigan win in 2019. Those scorelines are absolutely in play this weekend.

Offense: Moments of brilliance

Fun fact: Bryce Underwood has more passing yards than Hank Brown this season, though the latter has shared snaps in both buy games. Still, both are near the very bottom nationally in passing yards per game, and it is hard to envision either coach allowing their quarterback to suddenly get access to the entire playbook against these monster defenses.

However, that does not preclude Underwood from having a substantial impact on this game. Last week saw him feed both JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh, and those are the sorts of playmakers that Iowa simply does not offer. A big touchdown from one of these receivers could end up being the difference in a low-scoring affair. Add in Underwood’s legs, and I really like Michigan’s strengths along the margins.

What could make some of this moot is if the run game finally springs to life. That is a tough, tough ask against this defense, but the Hawkeyes are pretty green up front and have not really been tested yet, handling an Iowa State offense that sits 81st in SP+. Both Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall finally looked like we expected them to last Saturday, but UTEP is not Iowa.

It seems funny, then, to look for this to be the breakout game for the running backs, but that is sometimes how football works. If Jason Beck can use both Underwood’s arms and legs to keep the defense honest, I feel oddly optimistic about this strength-on-strength battle. The Wolverines might not win every down, but they do not have to; a deep shot downfield or a homerun breakaway from one of the backs would be gold in this sort of affair.

Defense: Gauntlet thrown

On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes have seen plenty of success running the ball. Three different backs have more rushing yards than Marshall (Michigan’s non-Underwood leading rusher) and expect Iowa to attack on the ground early and often. The offensive line is back to featuring future NFL talent, and regardless of if Kamari Moulton is able to give it a full go, the visitors are not going to shy away on the ground.

None of that should come as too surprising. What is dissimilar about this Iowa team is the willingness to throw the ball as well. While DJ Vonnahme being a great tight end is nothing new for the Hawkeyes, Tony Diaz is looking like a real threat, especially with his 95-yard effort against the Cyclones. The Michigan secondary probably does not feel too worried, but the defense cannot just simply load up the box.

As mentioned earlier, Underwood does have more yardage than Brown, though the Hawkeyes’ signal caller is completing 72.6 percent of his passes and has yet to throw a pick. Most of his completions are of the shorter variety, but that might actually be the right move against this defense. Unlike his counterpart, though, Brown is not going to hurt opponents on the ground.

This feels like a typical Big Ten showdown where Iowa is going to play power football and see if Michigan is up for the challenge. A low-possession game would be just fine for Kirk Ferentz, who is more than willing to trust his defense and special teams. Brown is here to manage the game and not make a mistake, but know that this edition of the Hawkeye offense does offer more ability than those in the previous encounters.

Identity peace

Both teams know who they are, and really lean into it. Toughness, fundamentals, and winning the line of scrimmage come before all else in a game like this. In matchups with such low over/unders, one possession, one play, can sometimes be the difference, and I will admit that does give me a little fear after seeing Michigan’s turnovers and defensive busts over the first few weeks.

With that in mind, I wonder if it makes sense to slightly break the trend and put a little bit more of the game into Underwood’s hands. Obviously, ball security is a must for the young quarterback, but no player on either roster has a chance to be a differentiator like Underwood, whose athleticism and dynamic talent may be needed against a stout defense that could certainly shut down the running backs.

It is a bit risky, but instead of turtling, I would like to see Underwood have the chance to cause some damage on Saturday. He has two great receiving threats, and his mobility is what can unlock this sort of defensive front for the running backs. Michigan’s defense can be trusted to keep Iowa in check, and getting some extra yards — and points — by opening up the offense a bit seems well worth the potential downside.

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