WEEK FOUR TOP 25: Grand Opening, Again
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We have arrived: the first Top 25 of the season. Since I started at Rocky Top Talk, I’ve been doing some version of this, but the last few seasons have showcased the best results. I was very early on Indiana last season, having them top-5 by September 21st while the AP Poll had taken another four weeks to catch up. Being able to find balance between results and performance-based metrics has been the entire goal here, and I feel very confident that we’ve done exactly that.
**Disclaimer: All EPA and success rate data is measured against FBS opponents.
That’s all to say…is Mississippi State a top 10 team? Let’s get into our first Top 25 of the season.
THE TOP 10
Alright, I won’t bury the lede here. Mississippi State at eight…how? Two massive things are favoring State right now: two big wins over power conference opponents and Kamario Taylor’s high-powered attack leading the way. As things stand before the whole of the nation gets into conference play, State is #1 in Game Factor right now. Their blowout road win over #64 Minnesota and road upset over #35 South Carolina lead the way for the most impressive résumé in the country through this early season. On top of that, the metrics are friendly to them as well. Kamario Taylor has arguably been the best quarterback in the nation thus far, and he’s led the way to the Bulldogs offense being top-15 in the nation in EPA per play (7th), yards per play (10th), and success rate (11th).
State has also been running the ball well with the combination of Fluff Bothwell and Taylor’s multi-faceted ability to attack defenses leading to one of the nation’s best early downs success rate. This offense’s ability to find explosive plays on the ground and through the air makes me confident that they can play with anyone. That being said, we’re still so early into this season that there just isn’t much separation between many teams. The difference between #1 Georgia and #5 Miami is roughly the same difference that separates #7 Indiana and #16 USC, and that’s what makes this next month so fun. Teams will start to separate themselves, and Mississippi State has a golden opportunity to do that right now, but it will certainly not be easy. They will host #31 Missouri and then #6 Alabama over the next two weeks, but their schedule overall is unrelenting. After that, they visit #14 LSU and #3 Texas in October with a home game against #25 Oklahoma in between.
DAWGS ON TOP
Georgia opens as a narrow #1 over Notre Dame and Texas. Georgia does trail both the Fighting Irish and Longhorns in Game Factor, but their overwhelming dominance thus far has created a marginal gap for Georgia three weeks in. Georgia and Texas have chances to separate themselves a bit from Notre Dame as Notre Dame’s next three games are coming against #86 Purdue, #58 North Carolina, and #106 Stanford (but we talk about Indiana’s scheduling?) while Georgia and Texas have ranked games against #25 Oklahoma and #13 Tennessee.
Georgia was my preseason National Champion pick with a bullet. The experience plus the success of their younger players last season felt like a recipe for winning, and Kirby and co. finally feel like they’ve found their footing in the present NIL and 12-team CFP era. They also have an identity, something that so many teams fight to find all season. So many other of these top-10 teams haven’t quite figured out who they are yet, and it really feels like only Notre Dame, Miami, and Ole Miss are the only other teams amongst this collective that have. Returning a quarterback makes cultivating an identity very easy, though it’s not a 100% guarantee. Ohio State is in a bit of crisis as their underwhelming ground game has placed more pressure on game manager Julian Sayin’s shoulders to be more than that. At Texas, they feel like a sum of their parts more than any individual player, and while they tend to figure it out, it routinely takes them half the season.
Georgia feels not only like they know who they are, but that this is the best version of their offense. Gunner Stockton is emerging as this Stetson Bennett-lite style of quarterback, capable of winning through the air and with his legs. Defensively, the Dawgs feel like it used to, and the only area they really need to shore up is protecting against explosives. I anticipate Georgia burying Oklahoma on Saturday.
GROUP-OF-SIX TOP 10
| Team | Conference | Record | Previous Game | Next Game |
| #37 North Dakota State Bison | MWC | 4-0 | 31-10 W @ #132 Sac State | vs. #124 Wyoming |
| #40 James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | 3-0 | 26-13 W @ #98 San Diego State | @ #104 Old Dominion |
| #52 South Florida Bulls | American | 3-0 | 59-17 W vs. FCS Delaware State | @ #137 Bowling Green |
| #56 Boise State Broncos | PAC-12 | 2-1 | 38-24 W vs. FCS South Dakota | @ #62 Western Michigan |
| #57 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | American | 3-0 | 42-0 W vs. FCS East Texas A&M | @ #84 Arkansas |
| #59 Memphis Tigers | American | 3-1 | 45-21 W vs. FCS UT Martin | @ #136 Charlotte |
| #60 New Mexico Lobos | MWC | 2-1 | 14-6 L @ #25 Oklahoma | @ #121 New Mexico State |
| #62 Western Michigan Broncos | MAC | 3-0 | 28-21 W @ #123 Rice | vs. #56 Boise State |
| #65 Fresno State Broncos | PAC-12 | 2-1 | 26-10 W @ #103 San José State | vs. #123 Rice |
| #67 Appalachian State Mountaineers | Sun Belt | 3-0 | 26-21 W vs. #136 Charlotte | @ #78 NC State |
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