South Carolina vs Alabama Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Sept. 26

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The South Carolina Gamecocks take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Alabama is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -520. South Carolina, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +385 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.

Here’s my South Carolina vs. Alabama prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26.

My Alabama vs. South Carolina best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download our Action Network app to get the latest picks and our College Football experts’ analysis.

South Carolina vs Alabama Odds

• South Carolina vs Alabama point spread: Alabama -12.5 (-110), South Carolina +12.5 (-110)
• South Carolina vs Alabama over/under: 53.5 (-110o / -110u)
• South Carolina vs Alabama moneyline: South Carolina +385, Alabama -520

Just when it looked like South Carolina was going to kick off the year 3-0, Mississippi State mounted a comeback, defeating the Gamecocks, 41-34.

Turnovers killed South Carolina, with LaNorris Sellers throwing two back-breaking interceptions to give the Bulldogs the opportunity to pull away late and secure the win.

Even after a disappointing performance against Mississippi State, the Gamecocks still grade out very well on offense, entering Week 4 ranked in the top 50 in Success Rate and in Finishing Drives.

While generating explosive plays has been an issue, South Carolina has masked it by methodically moving the ball down the field at a high rate, turning scoring opportunities into points on the board.

Sellers has struggled to get into a groove, completing just 62.8% of his passes in three games.

His sporadic play through the air has held the Gamecocks offense back from being a very versatile unit, leading the offense to below-league-average marks in Passing Success Rate and in Passing PPA.

It’s worth noting Sellers has made up for it on the ground, averaging over 7.5 yards per carry.

On the other side of the field, South Carolina’s defense has struggled to give the offense the production it needs to be a well-rounded contender, ranking outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed, Points Per Opportunity allowed and Havoc.

Until the Gamecocks can round back into competitive form, they’ll continue to play in high-variance contests, making it difficult to pull away on the scoreboard.

After falling behind Florida State in the first quarter, Alabama got back up off the mat in the second quarter and reclaimed the lead en route to a 50-36 victory.

Quarterback Keelon Russell was efficient in the Crimson Tide’s win in Week 3, throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns while punching in another score with his legs.

Daniel Hill and Trae’shawn Brown also found success on the ground, with both running backs averaging more than five yards per carry.

When Russell can find his footing, his versatility turns Alabama’s offense into a dynamic unit, ranking near the top of the board in Success Rate.

His production under center also forces opposing linebackers to stretch out in coverage, creating more space in the middle for the Crimson Tide’s running backs to create an explosive play on the ground.

Like the Gamecocks, Alabama has also severely underwhelmed on defense, fielding a group that ranks 132nd in explosiveness allowed and 126th in Points Per Opportunity allowed.

When the Crimson Tide can’t create disruptions, the secondary is vulnerable to getting beat over the top, flipping the field position in a flash.

With the defense struggling to create hard stops, Russell is forced to be more aggressive in his efforts to match the opponent’s pace of scoring, leading to track meets.

With South Carolina possessing a similar identity, expect Saturday’s SEC tilt to turn into a high-scoring thriller, shading value toward the over.

Heading into the year, question marks loomed large over Alabama’s ground game after failing to retool the offensive line with the transfer portal.

Three games into the year, the Crimson Tide have yet to take a step back, entering Week 4 ranked 22nd in Rushing Success Rate, 22nd in Rushing PPA, and 39th in rushing explosiveness.

When Hill and Brown can consistently cut the distance to gain in half on early downs, Alabama’s probability of converting increases, making it easier to reach scoring position. Once inside the 20, the Crimson Tide have capitalized on scoring opportunities, ranking in the top-20 in Points Per Opportunity.

Every bit of the Crimson Tide’s production on offense will be needed to keep pace with South Carolina, masking a defense that’s incapable of slowing Sellers down.

Even if Alabama’s defensive line can flush the Gamecocks quarterback out of the pocket, it’ll be vulnerable to getting beat on the ground while the back end is scrambling in coverage, creating multiple paths for Sellers to keep the offense ahead of the sticks.

Even though the total has steamed since the open, there’s still some meat left on the bone, making the over worth a wager at no higher than 55.

If South Carolina climbs up to +14 before kickoff, diversify your risk by placing a separate wager on the Gamecocks to cover the spread as well.

Pick: Over 53.5 (Play to 55)

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