What is the expert consensus for Wisconsin vs. Penn State in Week 4?
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The Wisconsin Badgers are looking to add to the early upsets of the college football season when they face the No. 13 Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 4.
Heading into the game, the Badgers are 9.5-point underdogs on FanDuel after opening as 11.5-point underdogs, which is quite interesting given that Wisconsin is going on the road into one of the most hostile environments in college football.
What are experts saying ahead of Wisconsin’s Week 4 matchup against Penn State?
Action Network: The Action Network is taking Wisconsin to cover the spread against Penn State.
“I think this is a perfect spot to fade Penn State as a double-digit favorite. The Nittany Lions have played three scrimmages to start the season against Buffalo, Temple and Marshall. The opener against Marshall looked very impressive at the time, but the Herd have been atrocious in the two games since and should’ve lost to both Missouri State and Middle Tennessee. So, the shine on that performance has certainly faded.
“Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked much improved against one of the national title favorites in Notre Dame on a neutral field. That was much closer than the final score indicated and really got away from the Badgers due to a pick-six and a ref-gifted touchdown on a kick return fumble. The Badgers defense is much more athletic on the back end, and they have some real size up front to slow down the Penn State rushing attack without committing too many bodies to the box.
“Additionally, these two teams are trending in opposite directions health-wise. Penn State has a CVS receipt length of injuries heading into this week, with many coming on the defensive side of the ball. However, the most important loss will be on offense with star wide receiver Koby Howard (who leads Penn State in receiving by a wide margin) expected to miss an extended period of time. That’s a massive loss for the nation’s leader in yards per catch among qualified receivers.”
Covers: Betting analyst Shawn Krest is also taking the Badgers to cover the 9.5-point spread.
“As long as the spread is over a touchdown and under 50% (on Kalshi), I’d stick with Wisconsin. Penn State has looked dominant against a very weak non-conference schedule, while Wisconsin got a test right out of the gate, opening with a loss to No. 3 Notre Dame. The Badgers have looked better each succeeding week.
“This week, Wisconsin gets a playmaker back, while Penn State will likely be missing one. Running back Abu Sama, who missed last week’s game with injury, is expected to return for the Badgers. The Nittany Lions haven’t faced anyone like Sama, or Wisconsin’s passing attack that complements him. Two of Penn State’s three opponents have ranked below 100 in ELO.
“Meanwhile, Penn State lost receiver Koby Howard, who leads the Big Ten in yards per catch. He’s listed as questionable on the injury report but is expected to miss extended time. That may not be enough to put Wisconsin over the top, but it should keep the Badgers close.”
On3: On their podcast, On3’s J.D. Pickell took Wisconsin to cover, but Penn State to win outright. Additionally, On3’s Ari Wasserman took the Badgers to cover the spread, while Andy Staples took Penn State to cover.
In our weekly Reacts poll, there wasn’t a big vote of confidence in the Badgers to pull off the upset, as only 27 percent of votes took Wisconsin to beat Penn State.
When looking at the money for the game, 97 percent of bettors have picked Penn State to win outright on DraftKings. Additionally, 71 percent have picked Penn State to cover the 10-point spread, while 65 percent of bets have taken the over of 43.5 points.
In my prediction for the week, I took Penn State to win 27-13 in a hard-fought game that the Nittany Lions pulled away in at the end.
Wisconsin’s offense is the true wild card. They’ll need to find ways to run the football, while Colton Joseph has to be more accurate. If that happens, the Badgers have a shot with how well their special teams is playing and how their defense looked last week.
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