Tennessee's 2026 record projection, strength of schedule after Week 4
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No. 17 Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) will host Auburn (3-1, 1-1 SEC) on Saturday in Week 5 at Neyland Stadium (3:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN). Rankings reflect the US LBM Coaches Poll.
The Vols' home schedule in 2026 consists of games against Furman (W, 56-9), Kennesaw State (W, 42-9), Texas (L, 20-17), Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky and LSU, while playing at Georgia Tech (W, 45-24), Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
Below is Tennessee's 2026 football schedule, along with updated game-by-game win percentage chances from ESPN's Matchup Predictor after Week 4. The Vols' updated strength of schedule and record projection are also listed below.
2026 Week 5 – Tennessee football updated win percentage chances each game
| Date | Opponent | Result/win % chance |
| Sept. 5 | Furman (Knoxville, Tennessee) | W, 56-9 |
| Sept. 12 | Georgia Tech (Atlanta, Georgia) | W, 45-24 |
| Sept. 19 | Kennesaw State (Knoxville, Tennessee) | W, 42-9 |
| Sept. 26 | Texas (Knoxville, Tennessee) | L, 20-17 |
| Oct. 3 | Auburn (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 71.0% |
| Oct. 10 | Arkansas (Fayetteville, Arkansas) | 84.4% |
| Oct. 17 | Alabama (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 36.9% |
| Oct. 24 | South Carolina (Columbia, South Carolina) | 65.5% |
| Oct. 31 | Open date | |
| Nov. 7 | Kentucky (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 79.0% |
| Nov. 14 | Texas A&M (College Station, Texas) | 51.4% |
| Nov. 21 | LSU (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 45.4% |
| Nov. 28 | Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tennessee) | 79.0% |
Tennessee football's strength of schedule, record projection after Week 4
Following Week 4, Tennessee is down one spot to No. 11 overall in ESPN's FPI rankings. The Vols are projected to finish their regular season with an 8.0-4.0 record after a 7.3-4.7 preseason record projection.
Tennessee also has a 95.3% chance to win at least six games, 1.3% chance to win the SEC, 22.0% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 1.0% chance to win a national title after Week 4.
Tennessee has the 38th-hardest strength of schedule nationally and the 21st-hardest remaining strength of schedule. The Vols are ranked No. 26 nationally for game control and No. 35 for strength of record. Strength of record rankings reflect a chance that an average top 25 team would have a team's record or better, given the schedule.
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This article originally appeared on Vols Wire: Tennessee's 2026 record projection, strength of schedule after Week 4
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