College Football Playoff Predictions: Gunner Stockton and Georgia Make a Sensational Statement in Week 4
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With Week 4 in the books, the 2026 college football season is a third of the way through, and a clear(ish) picture of the best teams in the country is (and isn’t) starting to emerge. How did the results from last weekend shape the race to the 12-team tournament? Our College Football Playoff predictions provide a pathway to the postseason and the ultimate glory.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Texas
- No. 9 Florida vs. No. 8 Alabama
- No. 11 LSU vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 7 Ohio State
After crushing the Western Michigan Broncos in the big Group of Six Week 4 matchup, the Boise State Broncos cemented themselves as the frontrunner for the College Football Playoff race. Spencer Danielson’s team has a 33.7% chance of making the postseason, with a 53.1% probability of doing so as the Pac-12 champion, per PFN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
Our College Football Playoff predictions pit the Broncos against the Texas Longhorns, who survived a close-fought encounter with the Tennessee Volunteers to remain on pace for the playoff. While questions continue to surround Arch Manning’s ceiling, Steve Sarkisian’s team has a 91.9% chance of making the 12-team tournament, although likely not as a conference champion.
We’re only at Week 4, but the Florida Gators may have already secured the award for the most surprising team of the year. Jon Sumrall’s impact has been immediate and significant, and after beating the Ole Miss Rebels in The Swamp on Saturday, the sleeping giant of the SEC currently has a 58.4% chance of making it to the playoff. Jadan Baugh deserves to play for a title.
Awaiting the Gators in our College Football Playoff predictions are the Alabama Crimson Tide. Keelon Russell was the highest-graded FBS quarterback of the week by PFN’s College QB Impact metric, and looks like a uniquely special talent who can carry Kalen DeBoer’s team a long way into the postseason. Alabama has a 78.1% chance to reach the playoff, per PFN FPM.
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The LSU Tigers bounced back from their loss to Ole Miss with a thoroughly convincing performance against the Texas A&M Aggies in Week 4. Our College Football Playoff predictions see them slide into the 11th-seed, with a 54.3% probability of being among the final 12 teams. There are high expectations in Baton Rouge, and making the playoffs is the minimum marker for Lane Kiffin.
Our latest College Football Playoff predictions see the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looking to tame the Tigers in the first round. Marcus Freeman’s team obliterated the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 4 and has the second-highest playoff probability of any team in the country (87.7%). The Irish still have their toughest matchups to come on the calendar (Miami and BYU).
The Oregon Ducks are one of the most complicated teams in the country. Their roster is stacked, but their struggles against Boise State and the abject failure against the Oklahoma State Cowboys stand as a substantial stain on their resume. The win over USC on Saturday night was important, but could the potential loss of Dante Moore for a sustained period of time derail their season?
Week 4 was the Jeremiah Smith show. PFN’s highest-graded wide receiver proved unstoppable for the Ohio State Buckeyes, and you have to treat any team that has a player of his talent playing at that level with respect. Ryan Day’s team has a 62.6% chance of reaching the playoff, but their path to the postseason has to go via Bloomington, which could impact the road they take.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 BYU
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama
- Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami (FL)
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Ohio State
The BYU Cougars were on a bye in Week 4, but events strengthened their claim to the Big 12 title. The only team that stood in their way a year ago was the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and with Will Hammond struggling to lead that offense, the Cougars are favored to win the conference and have a 16.2% chance of being a top-four seed at the end of the 2026 season.
Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes continue to set the pace in the ACC. No team has a greater chance to win its conference than the ‘Canes, with a 74.7% probability. Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are arguably the most dangerous QB/WR duo in the country, while the defense continues to be a mismatch for any team they face. The Notre Dame game looms as their only test.
It speaks to Curt Cignetti’s impact in Bloomington that a narrow Friday night win over the Northwestern Wildcats produced a doom-level reaction from the college football world. The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be just fine, and they currently have a 68.7% chance of a return to the postseason tournament. Our College Football Playoff predictions provide a regular-season rematch against the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Finally, the Georgia Bulldogs. Gunner Stockton made one of the best defenses in the country look like a mid-major outfit, while Kirby Smart’s defense produced a display that should prompt John Mateer to seriously consider hanging up the cleats. This team is stacked on both sides of the ball and has quietly positioned itself as the unchallenged best team in the sport.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Indiana
- Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas
Notre Dame vs. Indiana was a first-round clash in 2024, but both teams should have their sights set much deeper into the postseason. The Fighting Irish won by 10 two years ago, but this would be a much tighter matchup. A potential difference maker for Freeman’s team? Josh Hoover vs. a secondary led by Leonard Moore could be the ultimate game-breaker in this matchup.
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Georgia and Texas avoid each other in the regular season, but there’s every chance they clash at least once in the postseason. Our College Football Playoff predictions suggest that a potential semifinal game is in the offing for both teams. Manning vs. Stockton is the ultimate clash of hype vs. results, with the Bulldogs’ passer one of the most unheralded quarterbacks in the country.
College Football Playoff National Championship Game
- No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia
If you’re a regular reader of our College Football Playoff predictions, you’ll notice some familiarity in our projected national title game. Georgia has a 23.6% probability of reaching the national title game, while Notre Dame is given a 17.8% chance. The paths to Las Vegas change weekly, but everything we’ve seen so far suggests this is a very likely championship game.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
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