Week 5 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for the 4 biggest games
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With a half-dozen high-interest games in Week 4, we mixed in a pair of totals in our betting looks. Incredibly, it worked out, and was the difference on a 4-2 Saturday that made the big games that much sweeter. Especially with a pair of late touchdowns making a world of difference in two point spreads — and one dramatic outright result.
Initially, Week 5 might have been the Saturday you could put pumpkin-picking on the family calendar, but a pair of teams have forced their way into the national picture, and are hosting perennial powerhouses in the afternoon, smelling an upset with nodes of nutmeg.
Here is my initial take on the five biggest games of the week, along with the usual stock up or down for a few teams.
Movers
Oregon didn’t fall nearly as far in week-to-week betting market power ratings as it did in the polls after losing to Oklahoma State, but Dan Lanning improving to 4-0 over Lincoln Riley and USC has given a top-five team in the market reason for hope in getting back into the College Football Playoff mix.
Florida had already seen its power rating in the betting market rise to the point where the Gators were up at the echelon of Alabama and LSU in the SEC, and a trouncing of Ole Miss isn’t going to slow that rise. If you were looking for “the next Indiana and Curt Cignetti,” maybe we’ve found it with Jon Sumrall reviving the Gators’ program as a CFP contender.
Mississippi State’s rise up the ratings has paced just behind Florida because the Bulldogs started lower. It looked like Mississippi State might come back to earth when, before the game even started, the betting line plummeted from -6.5 to -3.5 and then the Cowbells found themselves down seven at home to Missouri.
Not on Kamario Taylor’s watch.
The Mississippi State quarterback has shot up to +500 to win the Heisman with a comeback win over the Tigers, but the tests only get tougher this week — and many more after. The rotating cast of flavor-of-the-week QBs only reinforces that there’s almost too many to choose from for college football’s biggest award. That, and a casual 12-catch, 217-yard, four-touchdown performance in Ohio State’s Big Ten opener has put Jeremiah Smith as the latest favorite at +250.
A status that has no reason to change, given how much less wins and losses are associated with wide receivers compared to quarterbacks.
Shakers
The ACC was at it again.
Louisville held the cat-bird seat in the conference standings for about six days, but a program that often falls victim to a head-shaking upset to derail its big-picture hopes, got beat as a 12.5-point home favorite by Wake Forest.
A pair of big upsets came in the Big Ten, starting in State College, as Wisconsin came from 10 points down late in the fourth quarter, as 10-point underdogs, to beat Penn State. Then, after dark in Seattle, Minnesota turned the lights out on Washington, despite the betting market moving the direction of the Huskies from -10 to -12.5. However, the biggest shake-up in the conference came in The Big House.
Who knows if hawks come home to roost, but something did in Ann Arbor, as this time the Wolverines took the “L” when the clock struck 0:00. This time by Iowa — a 5.5-point underdog. That was enough to shake up the landscape in the Big Ten as Iowa City hosts Ohio State this week, getting all the fanfare that comes with that.
Betting the big games for Week 5
This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 5.
Liberty (-7, 49.5) at Delaware
Now ranked in the AP Poll, Boise State might have taken the biggest lead possible in the race to be the Group-of-Six nominee in the College Football Playoff, needing only to take down the new Pac-12 to lock it up, but, the other “G6” conferences still have high-leverage matchups.
This week, the two favorites in Conference USA do battle on Friday night, as Liberty (+300) visits Delaware (+375).
The Flames played on Thursday night, coming back from down 17-10 at halftime to win at Coastal Carolina, while Delaware had to go to Charlottesville to play ACC-contender Virginia. The Cavaliers were in an angry mood, coming off a loss to West Virginia, and pummeled the overmatched Blue Hens.
Prior to the season, Liberty would have been a 3.5-point road favorite, but while the Flames were the C-USA favorites in the summer, Delaware was priced at double its current odds. Last week, we seemed headed for a line at pick’em in this one. So, why are the Blue Hens now home underdogs of a touchdown?
Star quarterback Nick Minicucci left Saturday’s game with a knee injury, and his status is in question for Friday night, and the Blue Hens’ backup quarterback situation is dicey, at best.
The worst-rated team in Conference USA before the season would have been a 9-point home underdog here, and even without Minicucci, and the probability of a drop in offensive efficiency, the Blue Hens aren’t that bad. Plus, it’s possible Minicucci was held out as a precaution, and we end up getting a ton of value on the home ‘dog.
Bet: Delaware +7
No. 7 Alabama (-6, 60.5) at No. 16 Mississippi State
Don’t look now, but Alabama seems to be getting better by the week.
Early in September, it looked like the Crimson Tide might be carried by their defense, a unit that turned their previous road game at Kentucky from upset to point-spread cover. Then, since they spotted Florida State a 15-point lead in the first half of Week 3, Keelon Russell (no relation) and the Bama offense has outscored the Seminoles and South Carolina 93-33.
If either Missouri unit had been so capable last week, the Tigers would have come out of Starkville with an upset win, in a game that they would have been five-point favorites in before the season.
Bet Alabama to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now
Meanwhile, Alabama was projected to have been a double-digit favorite in this matchup, even before Russell proved to be explosive with both his arm and legs on an offense that’s outpacing Mississippi State in both EPA/Successful Play and Points/Opportunity. Not to mention defensive metrics like Line Yards and Success Rate.
Mississippi State has already compiled a trio of good wins, but beating Bama would be on another level, so anything under a touchdown has to be a bet on the Tide.
Bet: Alabama -6
No. 5 Ohio State (-13.5, 45.5) at No. 14 Iowa
Iowa’s win at Michigan got them the call for College Gameday, but it was thoroughly improbable, as ESPN assigned the Hawkeyes the lowest postgame win expectancy of all Week 4 winners.
The Hawkeyes have played two games against remotely comparable teams this season, and even that’s a stretch. They managed just 284 yards at home against Iowa State, a team that just allowed 411 at home to Utah. Then, Iowa had less than 200 yards before getting a 91-yard game-winning drive that needed a miracle deflected pass and an unnecessary roughness penalty to give it just enough time and space for a mini-Hail Mary as time expired.
Ohio State’s already been on the road for a top-five battle with Texas, and while they let that slip in the fourth quarter, if the Buckeyes play that well for three quarters, they’ll have stretched the lead to insurmountable levels for an offense that can’t keep up.
Bet: Ohio State -13.5
No. 8 Florida (-5.5, 56.5) at No. 25 Missouri
It’s not a curse, it’s just the nature of the SEC that if you win a big game at home, you’re probably headed for a big road test the following week. From a betting market perspective, a convincing win is going to come with an upgrade in power rating.
Essentially, if you show how well you can play at home, the betting line will be set in a way where expectations are that you’ll play that way all the time, even on the road.
Before the season, Missouri wasn’t expected to be better than new-look Florida, but it was close enough that the Tigers were projected to be a small home favorite. Who knows, maybe if they’d held onto their fourth quarter lead in Starkville, having already crushed arch-rival Kansas, this line would still be around pick’em?
Bet Missouri to cover the spread at sportsbooks
The Gators jumped on an Ole Miss team coming off the most vengeful win a team can possibly have, and running through the Rebels’ suspect run defense has sent this line past a field goal, but the Ole Miss defensive metrics are bad, and Missouri’s are good.
To make things even more interesting for the home ‘dog, the Gators rank last in the SEC in both defensive stuff rate and defensive line yards. Without a defense capable of traveling, laying this many points seems like a bad idea compared to the road favorites above.
Bet: Missouri +5.5
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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