The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 5
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The week-to-week gauntlet that is the Big Ten schedule is tough. On any given Saturday, a bottom-half team can hand a top-half team a quality loss. Last weekend, that was the story for the Big Ten. The top conference showed just how deep it is, but maybe the Big Ten doesn’t get the same benefit of the doubt that some other conferences do. Of course, the Big Ten doesn’t have a Missouri (which hasn’t beaten a team that finished ranked over the last three seasons, but has been ranked almost every week) to help the top of the conference stack up “ranked” wins. After all, the Tigers lead the nation in #QualityLosses year in and year out.
Snark aside, the Big Ten’s College Football Playoff contenders had quite the hiccup this week, but that’s conference play. This week, we have a handful of interesting matchups that could continue to shake things up.
The 2026 Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 5
Locked In
N/A
No teams are bowl-eligible yet. No teams are locked in. A handful of teams have a clear path to the CFP, but there is still so much football to be played.
Contenders
#5 Ohio State
The Buckeyes moved up two spots in the AP Poll after dispatching Illinois in fairly convincing fashion, 42-19. Although if you asked the Fringe, the sky is currently falling. Jeremiah Smith is now the Heisman Trophy favorite based on your favorite gambling sites, thanks to a historic four-touchdown day.
The defense, however, needs to get back to where it expects to be. Allowing 462 yards to the Illini isn’t ideal.
#6 Indiana
The Hoosiers nearly suffered the annual letdown most defending champs get to experience. Indiana got into a four-quarter battle with Northwestern on Friday, but prevailed thanks to 203 rushing yards and a touchdown from Lee Beebe Jr.
This week should be an easier win, but then Indiana begins a stretch of top-half Big Ten teams. We will soon find out if the Hoosiers are built to go back-to-back.
A Clear Path
#14 Iowa
The Hawkeyes started off the year 3-0, which is not much of a surprise. Then, it got into a real dogfight at Michigan. The offense only managed two touchdowns while the kick return team added another, but it was when that second offensive touchdown was scored that was the difference.
The Hawkeyes scored as time expired with no magic clock needed…but this week, they get Ohio State at Kinnick. Here’s a drinking game for you: drink every time anyone mentions the 2017 matchup (the last time Ohio State played at Iowa).
#15 Oregon
There were, and still are, concerns with Oregon. The defense hasn’t been as great as expected, but it did its job against USC. Honestly, the Ducks would be in Contender status if we had a clearer picture of Dante Moore‘s concussion. The potential QB1 of the 2027 NFL Draft suffered a scary concussion off of an objectively dirty hit, but Dylan Raiola came in, played Superman, and led the Ducks to a critical win.
#18 USC
Speaking of the Trojans, they have similar issues as Oregon. Both teams have great offenses and have things to work on on defense.
Both teams have schedules that could allow them to play their way into the CFP.
#23 UCLA
Yes, the UCLA Bruins are 4-0 with two Big Ten wins. They haven’t been massively tested yet, but destroying both Cal and Maryland on the road is impressive. Bob Chesney’s club is looking good. Nico Iamaleava has been good, but the star of the show has been JMU transfer running back, Wayne Knight. He currently leads the Big Ten with 445 yards and nine rushing touchdowns.
Nebraska
One of a small handful of 4-0 teams still unranked, Nebraska has taken care of business thus far. The Huskers had a great win over Michigan State last week despite an injury to freshman phenom Jamal Rule. We will keep an eye on them moving forward.
Good Not Great Right Now
Minnesota
On Saturday, the Golden Gophers became the third team to beat Washington at Washington since 2021. Drake Lindsey went 21/29 for 204 yards and three touchdowns. The defense picked off Demond Williams Jr. twice. PJ Fleck wiped a player’s blood on his face. The game had everything.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions came into the year with an easy schedule on paper. However, one of those “easy” games came to Happy Valley and got a win. If Wisconsin is tough for Matt Campbell’s team, we wonder how the rest of the year is going to shape up.
Penn State was spotted 17 points with under five minutes until half and was outscored 24-3 the rest of the way. It looked like they were going to escape, but Wisconsin hit a 72-yard touchdown pass, just as everyone expected from a Wisconsin offense.
Washington
Thus far, the Huskies have been a tad suspect. Beating Utah State by two may have been the first warning, but losing at home to Minnesota was not on our list of things to expect this year. The offense goes as Williams does; the star quarterback leads the team in rushing attempts and yards in addition to the normal quarterbacking duties.
Northwestern
Is Northwestern…good?
Smacking around Colorado was cool, but making Indiana sweat may have been the most impressive thing to this point. Aidan Chiles has taken a step under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and he has two reliable receivers in Griffin Wilde and Luke Dehnicke (as a tight end).
The Wildcats open up the new Ryan Field this week against Penn State on Friday night. That could be a good one.
Wisconsin
Don’t look now, but Wisconsin is 3-1 after rattling off three straight wins. Going to Penn State and getting a win over a ranked Penn State team might be one of the more impressive wins in Luke Fickell’s tenure.
Maybe his seat cooled off a little bit. He has a long way to go before really contending, but the high-water mark for Fickell at Wisconsin is seven wins. The Badgers just might meet that.
Thin Ice
Michigan
In the minds of most, Michigan dropped to 2-2 after a last-second loss to Iowa. The defense is still very solid, but the offense may have a very expensive albatross in the form of Bryce Underwood.
One more loss and the Wolverines may be joining Purdue and Rutgers.
Illinois
Is it a good thing to fire a defensive coordinator only four games into his tenure? Giving up four touchdowns to the best player in college football isn’t a fireable offense, but it seems Bret Bielema just wants a clean split as October gets here.
Maryland
Is it a good thing to have a student section chanting to fire a head coach? Not in an “Ohio State fans are mad about a 30-point win” kind of way, but in a “we are tired of losing by 30” kind of way. The Terps have talent; they used plenty of NIL to sign a massive recruiting class and have a dynamic quarterback. But losing 54-3 at home a week after losing 35-26 at home is not a good look.
The Terps are a loss away from elimination.
Michigan State
A week after putting up a decent fight against Notre Dame, the Spartans fell at home to Nebraska, 31-13. Pat Fitzgerald may be able to motivate us to run through walls, but making the CFP this year may be out of reach.
MSU doesn’t have the schedule to survive another loss.
Eliminated
- Purdue
- Rutgers
Week 5 Big Ten Schedule
- #15 Oregon (3-1, 1-0): Idle
- #23 UCLA (4-0, 2-0): Idle
- Penn State (3-1, 0-1) at Northwestern (2-1, 0-1) (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Michigan (3-1, 0-1) at Minnesota (3-1, 1-0) ( 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Michigan State (2-2, 0-1) at Wisconsin (3-1, 1-0) (12:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
- #5 Ohio State (3-1, 1-0) at #14 Iowa (4-0, 1-0) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Maryland (2-2, 0-1) at Nebraska (4-0, 1-0) (4:00 p.m. ET, FS1)
- Purdue (1-3, 0-1) at Illinois (2-2, 0-1) (4:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
- Washington (3-1, 0-1) at #18 USC (4-1, 1-1) (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
- #6 Indiana (4-0, 1-0) at Rutgers (1-3, 0-1) (8:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
More Big Ten News
- Matt Campbell’s History After Season’s First Loss
- College Football Sunday Summary Plays the Expectations Game
- Penn State’s Offense Struggles in Wisconsin Loss
- Washington Woes Continue in 27-24 Loss to Minnesota
- Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman Case Strengthens In Ohio State’s Win Over Illinois
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