Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

One of the most heroic efforts of Week 4 came from the #14 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) who completed a 91-yard comeback drive at #18 Michigan to win 20-19. Iowa now puts themself in position to make a run at the Big Ten Championship Game, but first, they host #5 Ohio State (4-0).

Ohio State is fresh off a smothering 42-19 win over Illinois. The headline of that outing was Jeremiah Smith who is now the favorite to win the Heisman! Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns. Smith not only set career-highs, but program records too. The Buckeyes outgained Illinois 518-462 in yards and converted a combined 10 out of 14 third and fourth down conversions. Since losing to Texas, Ohio State has scored 59 and 42 with 1,045 total yards. The last time Ohio State played Iowa, the Buckeyes won 35-7. The last time Ohio State went to Iowa was in 2017 – and the Hawkeyes won 55-24! Can they repeat that magic again?

Iowa is coming off their own magical performance against Michigan, but doesn't have time to celebrate with Ohio State up next. The Hawkeyes and Hank Brown threw a season-high 227 yards with 78 of that coming on the game-winning drive at Michigan, plus the Hawkeyes got star running back Kamari Moulton back from injury (44 yards). Iowa's defense will have to continue the standard they've set this season. Iowa leads the country with 8.0 points per game allowed with two shutouts, 19 to Michigan and 13 to Iowa State. Ohio State's team total for this game is set at 30.5. Iowa hasn't allowed a team to score 30 in Kinnick Stadium on them since Northwestern did so on 10/1/2016! It's been a little over 10 years later, can Ohio State do it?

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Ohio State vs Iowa

• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Kinnick Stadium
• City: Iowa City, IA
• TV/Streaming: CBS

Game Odds for Ohio State vs Iowa

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-625), Iowa Hawkeyes (+455)
• Spread: Ohio State -14 (-112)
• Total: 45.5 points

#5 Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2026 Record: 3-1 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 45.0 (6th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 12.2 (T-11th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 24th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 7th

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense:

Outside of the second-half versus Texas, Ohio State's offense has been a tank. The Buckeyes rolled the Illini last week winning 42-19 and putting up 519 total yards of offense. Julian Sayin threw a season-high four touchdowns and 367 yards with all four scorers and 217 of this yards going to Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes boast the best receiver room in the country and Iowa has the 19th-ranked coverage grades per PFF.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: WR Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith is fresh off the best game of his career and possibly the greatest regular season game from an Ohio State receiver in program history. Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns! Smith is now the leader for the Heisman Trophy as he leads the country in receiving yards (617) and receiving touchdowns (7). He's played Iowa once in his career (2024) and caught four passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. He's recorded at least 85 yards in every game this season, so let's see his encore in Kinnick Stadium.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense:

Ohio State's defense allowed some rushing lanes to Texas (141 yards), then Illinois (199 yards) last week. The Buckeyes rush defense ranks 13th per PFF, but a lot of that has to be because they destroyed Kent State and Ball State holding them to 45 and 71 rushing yards. The Buckeyes rank 27th in total yards allowed per game (274.2), which is behind teams like Duke, TCU, and Syracuse, which is surprising.

Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: DL Kenyatta Jackson Jr.

Now against both P4 opponents, Texas and Illinois, Kenyatta Jackson Jr has a sack in each. The star defensive lineman has had a few quiet games, but will be a primary focus of the Hawkeyes this week. Iowa has the eighth-ranked run blocking grades and 28th in pass blocking. This will be the senior's toughest test of the season so far.

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#14 Iowa Hawkeyes

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz
2026 Record: 4-0 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 32.8 (58th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 8.0 (1st)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 67th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 34th

The Iowa Hawkeyes Offense:

Iowa's offense had a season-high 227 passing yards against Michigan thanks to a magnificent final drive. 78 out of the 91 yards gained on that final drive were through the air, including 45 yards on the final two plays. Rolling that momentum into hosting Ohio State will be improbable, but not impossible. Iowa has the 93rd-ranked passing attack and it will be put through the wringer against an Ohio State defense that has the 3rd-best coverage grade in the country.

Iowa Player to Watch on Offense: RB Kamari Moulton

Kamari Moulton missed Week 3's 55-0 blowout win over Northern Iowa, but returned for Iowa's top 25 matchup at Michigan. Moulton ran for 44 yards on 13 carries and posted two receptions or two yards. It was his lowest yardage total dating back 14 games to the 2025 season-opener versus Albany. Moulton never played Ohio State in a competitive state as he received two garbage time carries versus the Buckeyes in a 35-7 loss. The Buckeyes allowed 199 rushing yards last game, so there's an avenue of finding success for the senior.

The Iowa Hawkeyes Defense:

Like every year, the bread and butter of Iowa's success is the defense. Yet again, Iowa is dominant. The Hawkeyes lead the country with 8.0 points per game allowed and the 10th-fewest yards permitted (239.8). Iowa will be challenged through the air and they've been ripe this year with the 10th-best defensive passing efficiency. However, Iowa has faced two subpar drop back passers in Bryce Underwood and Jaylen Raynor.Julian Sayin and this OSU receiving corps will be the best unit Iowa faces all year.

Iowa Player to Watch on Defense: LB Cam Buffington

I wrote about Cam Buffington last week and said to expect another possible double-digit tackling week and he delivered with 11 against Michigan. Buffington has a team-high 38 tackles and his best efforts came against Iowa State (15 tackles) and Michigan (11 tackles), which are great signs because you'll need a big day from Buffington against OSU. Expect him to be involved in stopping the Buckeyes rushing attack.

Ohio State and Iowa Stats, Betting Trends

• Iowa is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 to the Under
• Ohio State is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 to the Over
• Iowa is 2-1 ATS at home and 2-1 to the Under
• Ohio State is 6-0 to the Under as the road team since 2025 and 9-1 to the Under since 2024
• As a home underdog, Iowa is 6-4 ATS dating back to 2016
• As a road favorite, Ohio State is 11-10-2 ATS dating back to 2021 and 14-9 to the Under
• As a road favorite, Ohio State is 6-3 ATS since 2024 and 8-1 to the Under
• Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS since 2025 against ranked opponents and 5-1 to the Under
• Ohio State is 10-3 ATS since 2024 against ranked opponents and 8-5 to the Under

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes the Buckeyes to cover the first quarter spread of -2.5:

My question for this game is: can Iowa score more than 14 points? Which is their team total (14.5). Iowa will have to run the ball. Illinois ran for 199 yards, and Texas ran for 141 on Ohio State this season, so it’s possible for Iowa to grind the Buckeyes down late in the game, but early on, I am not sure.

Ohio State 1Q -2.5 is my favorite bet for this game. Iowa didn’t score in the first quarter against Iowa State on three drives. On two first quarter drives against Michigan, Iowa didn't score but they returned a Kickoff 99 yards, so basically Iowa had five first quarter drives in their two P4 games, and the offense scored 0 points — the special teams scored 7.

The Last 2 meetings in 2024 and 2022: OSU led the 1Q 7-0 and 16-7. Ohio State has led every first quarter this season by at least seven and averages the most 1Q PPG in the country at 14.8. I will take OSU in the first quarter -2.5."

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