Adjusting BYU football preseason projections after first quarter of the 2026 season

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The 2026 college football season is one-fourth of the way over. Trying to establish projections before the games are played can be challenging. Those are mitigated when we’ve had game results and additional data.

How do the BYU Cougars look three games into the season compared to preseason projections? Here's a breakdown. The projections were reasonable, with almost no one predicting more than two losses.

The Cougars have steadily done their part in the early portion of the season. Not one of their first three games has been competitively ‘close’. They beat Utah Tech by almost 60, Arizona by 11 and Colorado State by 18, outscoring their opponents by almost three-to-one.

BYU vs expectation

Preseason projections are like player ratings in a video game. Everyone thinks they should be higher than they are. Some of that is from a built-in bias, while some of it comes from the eternal optimism players and fans typically have. The intriguing part comes after some games have been played.

Virtually everyone expected the Cougars to be in postseason conversations towards the end of the season. Despite the quarterback conundrum, Texas Tech is expected to factor in. Utah, the other major Big 12 title hopeful, have now legitimately thrown their name into consideration.

A sample of BYU preseason projections:

Stewart Mandell of The Athletic: 11-1

CBS Sports: 11-1

Trevor Matich of ESPN: 10-2

The good news for the Cougar faithful, is no one claimed BYU would have a regression season and fall into the middle of the road record. Virtually every projection had BYU as a conference contender and possible playoff team. Three games in, is BYU closer to expectations, below, or can Cougars fans start getting excited about potentially something more?

How has the landscape changed

The first three games met expectations. Utah Tech, with all respect to their program, is not a team BYU should ever struggle with. Colorado State is in year one under Jim Mora Jr. The Arizona Wildcats played less than expected for both teams. Arizona held a 17-14 lead going in at halftime, but BYU would hold them to zero points in the second half.

To keep this clean, we’ll break down the remainder of the season into competitive tiers instead of chronological order.

Kansas, TCU and Iowa State

The Jayhawks, Horned Frogs and Cyclones are all currently sitting at .500 or below. They also occupy the bottom three rankings in the Big 12. Beyond presumed confidence, the Cougars should handle business against these three.

The lone Kansas win came against NEC program Long Island in a game that was not close (51-6). They would go onto lose to No. 23 Missouri by 17 and Arizona State by seven. TCU began the season losing a close game to North Carolina by less than a touchdown. The frogs then took care of business against Grambling and Arkansas State.

Iowa State is the team in this tier that is a little less easy to pin down. Four games and an even record. Wins against SE Missouri and Bowling Green as well as less than blowout losses to No. 21 Iowa and No. 15 Utah. Those games were lost by three and 14 points respectively. Iowa State is not expected to be superb after the departure of head coach Matt Campbell, who departed for Penn State and took several players with him.

Arizona State, UCF and Baylor

The Sun Devils are not a team to overlook if Kenny Dillingham is the coach, and they are trying to compete in the NIL world. Putting up 70 points on Morgan State is impressive, but it won’t move the needle. Beating Kansas by only one score is less than expected. Texas A&M is expected to be a contender, but a 48-20 loss that included a 24-0 fourth quarter was surprising.

Central Florida has been a slight surprise. Beating HBCU Bethune Cookman and Sun Belt team Georgia State is not shocking. Only managing seven points in a loss to Pitt while both teams scored a total of 19 points was significantly surprising. Baylor is one point away from being undefeated. They lost that game to SEC blue blood Auburn by only a single point. The ten-point win over Colorado falls short of being impressive, as Colorado looks dramatically different in their last two than they did in their first two.

Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Utah

The Bearcats are undefeated, but by season's end, that could be more about who they played than what they are. The W. Carolina game was a route. Boston College, Miami of Ohio and Kansas state felt closer to expectations. The Red Hawks are a local Ohio Mac school and that conference is typically competitive in the state.

Notre Dame is the game circled on the calendar. No game on the BYU schedule is unwinnable. BYU is expected to be competitive vs Notre Dame no matter the context. However, the Irish are the No. 3 team in the country. They also have three of their four wins against legitimate power 4 competition. The battle of the biggest faith-based fanbases could be a game of the year candidate.

The “new” Holy War should be the last ranked team BYU will face. “New” because both Kalani Sitake and Morgan Scalley agreed to bring some civility and respect to one of the most heated rivalries in the sport. Utah is 4-0 and looks significantly impressive, especially on defense, allowing 17 points or fewer in every game while scoring 31 or more in each game.

The update on the projection is slightly better than expected, but still within range. Most outlets predicted a one-loss season. Based on the data, that one loss would look to be Notre Dame by the numbers. However, if BYU can win the game vs Notre Dame, their season and playoff outlook will get a jolt. If they are still undefeated at that point, a top 3 or 4 national ranking would not be unrealistic.

If the Cougars go into the Holy War undefeated with a Notre Dame win on the resume, all they have to do is win the remaining winnable games. A Notre Dame win could give them what's needed to ensure a favorable playoff seed. That’s assuming they get in based on national ranking. To say nothing of potentially winning the Big 12, which should come down to BYU, Utah and Texas Tech.