By The Numbers: Iowa vs. Ohio State

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This time last week I was trying to find any reason I could to pick Iowa to beat Michigan at the Big House and I just didn’t think they could do it. Michigan’s defense is elite, their offense is better than average, and I just didn’t think that Hank “Ice in his veins” Brown could go into Ann Arbor and come away with a victory in his first ever road start. I couldn’t be happier that I, and the majority of the BHGP staff, was completely wrong.

Like every other Iowa fan I’ve spent a good chunk of this week enjoying the schadenfreude of watching Michigan fans try to explain away their loss to “a good team”, from complaints about officiating, to claims of pure dumb luck, they don’t seem to be handling this very well. They can talk about total yards until they go blue in the face, because the only thing that really matters is the score when the clock hits 0:00, and on Saturday the score was 20-19 with Iowa in the lead. I’m not sure that the fandom has settled on a name for the glorious back shoulder fade that Hank Brown threw to Reece Vander Zee with no time left on the clock, and I’m certainly open to suggestions, but I like “9 to 2 with :02” – it’s got solid alliteration, easy to remember, and sidles up nicely next to “7 got 6”. Thank the football gods that RVZ switched numbers this year, 15 is a tough one to work into a rhyming scheme.

Saturday, September 25th, 2026 is a day that will live forever in Hawkeye lore, and I think we’ve all enjoyed this win for a good deal longer than we enjoyed the wins over NIU, ISU, and UNI that preceded it, but it’s a game week, so time to get back to work.

This Saturday our beloved Hawkeyes welcome the other B18 “eyes” to Kinnick, and I’m pretty sure we all remember what went down the last time OSU rolled into town. I don’t know about you, but I watch that game at least once a year (probably more like 2-3 times) for a variety of reasons. Sometimes I just want to see the look of utter disbelief/devastation on Urban Meyer’s face when Nick Bosa was ejected for targeting, sometimes it’s to hear Mike Tirico’s enthusiastic call of Amani Hooker’s pick six on the first play from scrimmage. Every once in a while, it’s just so I can watch Tyler Kluver almost score on a fake field goal (I swear that one of these times he’s going to manage to stay on his feet and make it to the endzone), and then on the very next play watch Nate Stanley make, perhaps, the best play I’ve ever seen an Iowa QB make. But more often than not, it’s just because it feels so damn good to watch Iowa kick the absolute shit out of Ohio State, something that has only happened a handful of times (they’ve only beaten OSU 5 times in my life, and only 2 of those – 2004, 2017 – can really be classified as ass-whoopings).

The Buckeyes come to town with the nation’s highest rated QB and a legit Alien at WR. Julian Sayin is completing 72.2% of his passes and Jeremiah Smith is, for my money, the single best player in college football right now. Thankfully, their defense isn’t anywhere near as good as their defense, so Iowa just might have a shot to pull the upset Saturday if they can limit Smith’s touches and keep him from getting behind the secondary. It’s a tall order, but it’s certainly not outside the realm of the possible.

Let’s see what the numbers have to say.

The Teams

• Iowa: 4-0 overall, 1-0 conference (No. 14 AP / No. 14 Coaches)
• Ohio State: 3-1 overall, 1-0 conference (No. 5 AP / No. 6 Coaches)

Series History

• All-time record: Ohio State leads 49-15-3 since 1922
• Most recent meeting: Ohio State won 35-7 on Oct. 5, 2024, in Columbus.
• Current streak: Ohio State has won 2 straight (2022, 2024) and 15 of the last 17 meetings.
• Half-assed internet research:
  • This is Ohio State’s first trip to Kinnick since 2017, and only its third to Iowa City since 2010;
  • The Buckeyes are 17-7-2 all-time in Iowa City.
  • It’s the first meeting with both teams ranked in the AP top 15 since 2006 — and ESPN’s College GameDay is in Iowa City for the first time since that same 2006 matchup (No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 13 Iowa 38-17).
  • Iowa has beaten Michigan and Ohio State in the same season only once in program history: 1962, by an identical 28-14 score in both games.

Coaching Staff

• Iowa: Kirk Ferentz (28th season; 213-128 at Iowa; 2-9 vs. Ohio State, with both wins in Iowa City in 2004 and 2017) / Tim Lester, OC (3rd season) / Phil Parker, DC (15th season) / Chris Polizzi, ST Coordinator (1st season)
• Ohio State: Ryan Day, HC (8th season; 85-13 at Ohio State; 2-0 vs. Iowa) / Arthur Smith, OC (1st season; former Atlanta Falcons head coach and Pittsburgh Steelers OC), with Keenan Bailey as co-OC (2nd season) / Matt Patricia, DC (2nd season; his 2025 unit was the nation’s top defense) / Robby Discher, ST Coordinator (1st season, from Illinois).

Offense

Iowa’s offense was not very good for 2.9 quarters last Saturday, but they found the extra gear they needed and got the job done. Michigan won the line of scrimmage all day, and even when the offense managed to find some life, it was not on the ground. Thankfully, when they needed it most, Hank Brown started finding receivers and gouging the Wolverine’s for decent yardage. Sure, it wasn’t perfect, but going 91 yards in under 2 minutes on a single timeout is impressive, even if they did get assists from Zeke Barry and John Henry Daley.

That being said, a performance like that will not win them a game against Ohio State. OSU’s defense isn’t anywhere near as good as Michigan’s, but their offense is better by a couple orders of magnitude (pop pop). They may not need to put up 500+ to beat the Buckeyes, but their almost certainly going to need to surpass 276, and they’re going to need to score touchdowns, probably 4 at a minimum, which is what Jeremiah Smith put up by himself last week in their win over Illinois. Brown will need to be on his game from the first snap, and our we’re going to need a lot more out of the Oline and the RB room to keep pace with OSU.

The Buckeyes are averaging 522 yards per game and are led by one of the best QBs in the country, or at least the QB that gets to throw to the best WR (if not the best player) in the country. Julian Sayin has been nothing short of phenomenal for Ryan Day through 4 weeks (well, except for the 4th quarter against Texas when he went 2-5 for 29 yds and 1 INT as OSU pissed a win down their leg). On the season he’s thrown for more than 1200 yards and 10 TDs to just that 1 INT. By comparison, Hank Brown has thrown for 700 yards, 5 TDs and no INTs. That’s a pretty solid number for an Iowa QB, and I’d guess those numbers would be higher if he had Jeremiah Smith to throw to. Iowa may have a Boogeyman, but OSU has a freak of nature who, only 4 games into his junior year, is already accrued more yardage than any other receiver in Buckeye history. 4 games in he’s already accumulated nearly half of the yardage he put up last season, more than half of the TDs and will likely end this season as the single greatest receiver in OSU history, across the board. Oh, and they also have a pretty solid RB in Bo Jackson (50 carries, 283 yards 2 TDs) to go along with their annual crop of 4-5* talent at every other position.

ADVANTAGE: Ohio State — OSU has the nation’s No. 2 passing attack (Iowa ranks 86th through the air). Iowa’s edge is on the ground (27th nationally vs. 76th), but Lester is going to need to call the game of his life to keep the Hawks in this one.

Defense

Iowa’s defense may have given up a bunch of yards against Michigan, but they got the stops when they had to and, more importantly, they kept Michigan off the board when they absolutely had to. Whether it was Cam Buffington stuffing Bryce Underwood on an, ill-advised, leap on 4th down or Deshaun Lee picking off his high-school teammate to steal a possession, the defense got the job done when they needed to. You can talk about total yardage all you want, but until they start awarding points for yards gained, it won’t matter one damn bit. Iowa may not be the #1 defense in the country when it comes to total defense, but they are still the #1 defense in the only statistic that matters, points allowed. They’ve given up just 32 points in 4 games and that 8 PPG average is still the top of the pile.

Ohio State isn’t exactly bad at defense (27th overall, 13th in ypp – Iowa is tied for 10th), but they are far from infallible, especially in the 4th quarter on the road. Kinnick is not a fun place to play if you’re not wearing black and gold, and while the 12th man typically hurts the offense more than the defense, the noise doesn’t make it any easier to communicate defensive adjustments than offensive ones. Iowa certainly won’t be putting up 55 against this defense, but I’m guessing they’ll be able to put up more than 58 yards on the ground.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa — No. 1 nationally in scoring defense and 10th in total defense, with no rushing touchdowns and just three touchdowns allowed in 16 quarters. Ohio State’s defense is also top-30 in every category above, but has been softer late (30 of its 49 points allowed came in fourth quarters) and gave up 113 rushing yards on 11 carries to Illinois’ Aidan Laughery last week.

Special Teams

Iowa’s special teams are, again, proving that being above average in all three phases will keep you in any game you play. Whether it’s Boston Everitt’s punting or Braeden Jackson/Evan Brown returning kickoffs/punts for TDs, this S/T unit is providing points and a whole lot of “hidden yardage” that is saving the offense and putting the defense in the best possible position to succeed. Caden Buhr hasn’t been perfect, and he’s definitely got the leg to be the next great Iowa kicker, but he needs to true up his sights, because we’re going to need him to hit something from north of 50 yards at some point this season.

Ohio State’s special teams haven’t really had much to do this season, aside from kicking extra points. Connor Hawkins hasn’t missed one yet, and he’s 4/5 on field goals. Joe McGuire has only punted 9 times (Everitt has punted 19 times) this season, and for a team that has fielded 11 punts, they haven’t been able to do much with them. It’s hard to gauge OSU’s ability to return kickoffs, seeing as they’ve only had 3 total returns across 4 games, but they haven’t done anything of note.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa — Braeden Jackson’s 99-yard kickoff-return TD at Michigan and Evan James (18.6 per punt return, 7th in FBS) give Iowa a return game ranked 2nd (kickoffs) and 30th (punts) nationally

Numbers to Watch

• 9 – Hank Brown, Iowa QB – 66-of-97 (68.0%) for 700 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT. Went 21-of-35 for 227 yards and 2 TD at Michigan — 13-of-19 for 142 yards and both TDs in the fourth quarter alone, capped by a 91-yard, 1:46 game-winning drive. Named to the Davey O’Brien Great 8 list for Week 4.
• 2 – Reece Vander Zee, Iowa WR – 11 receptions for 143 yards and 2 TD, both at Michigan (5 catches, 66 yards), including the walk-off 16-yarder as time expired — Iowa’s first walk-off TD since 2009. Note: switched from No. 15 to No. 2 this season.
• 33 – Cam Buffington, Iowa LB – Team-high 38 tackles (9.5 per game, 15th nationally, 3rd in the Big Ten) with 3 TFL; 11 stops at Michigan after a career-high 15 vs. Iowa State.
• 10 – Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB – 83-of-115 (72.2%) for 1,206 yards, 10 TD and 1 INT. Coming off 27-of-36 for 367 yards and 4 TD, plus a rushing TD, vs. Illinois; his 75.1% career completion rate is the best in Ohio State history.
• 4 – Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR – 33 receptions for 617 yards (154.3 per game) and 7 TD. Set career highs with 12 catches, 217 yards and 4 TD vs. Illinois; became Ohio State’s all-time career receiving yards leader in Week 3 and its first player with 3,000 career receiving yards in Week 4.

Injury Report

Wednesday (Sept. 30) Big Ten availability report

• Tyler Brown, Iowa SS — OUT. Starting strong safety appeared to aggravate a hamstring at Michigan and played through it; has dealt with soft-tissue/hamstring issues all fall. Anthony Hawkins started in his place in Weeks 1-2.
• Kyler Gerardy, Iowa DB — OUT. Undisclosed.
• Darion Jones, Iowa DB — Questionable. Undisclosed.
• Derek Weisskopf, Iowa LB — Questionable. Undisclosed.
• Jay Timmons, Ohio State CB — Questionable. Starting nickel left the Illinois game in the third quarter with an apparent leg/hamstring injury; Day said the staff would “see how the week goes.”
• Phillip Daniels, Ohio State RT — Questionable. Starting right tackle has been out since a fourth-quarter injury at Texas.
• Brenten “Inky” Jones (S), Anthony “Turbo” Rogers (RB), Braxton Rembert (LB), Bennett Christian (TE), Ohio State — Questionable. Undisclosed.
• Amari Valerio-Hudson (WR), Jaxon Powell (OL), Vasean Washington (OL), Ohio State — OUT. Undisclosed.
• Zion Grady, Ohio State DE — Not listed; cleared to return after missing the last two games with an injury suffered at Texas.

Lines

As of: Sept. 30, 2026

• Point spread: Ohio State -14.5
• Over/Under: 45.5
• Moneyline: Ohio State -720 / Iowa +500

Look, I know we all want another Woodshed type game, but I just don’t see that happening on Saturday (though I’d love to be proven wrong and seeing as absolutely nobody saw the Woodshed game coming either, it could certainly happen). Ryan Day’s team is talented, driven, and – outside of one quarter this season – disciplined. They are still the odds-on favorite to win the CFP this season and with good reason.

That being said, they’re the only team playing in Kinnick on Saturday that has any pressure on them. Losing to Iowa may not end their shot at making the playoffs, but they’d pretty much have to win out against a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way (Indiana, USC, Oregon, Nebraska, and Michigan are not going to be easy outs). Iowa, on the other hand, is playing with house money atm. Even a close loss to Ohio State would probably be seen as a “quality loss” by the committee and the schedule gets significantly easier after OSU. An 11-1 or 10-2 Iowa team is almost assuredly going to be on the cusp of a playoff berth, especially if Michigan can salvage their season and get back into the rankings.

The Buckeyes were definitely looking past Iowa a couple weeks ago, but after last Saturday, I don’t think Iowa has that luxury anymore. We’re going to get their best shot, because they know that sleepwalking to a loss, or even a win that was a little too close for comfort, is going to hurt them a lot more than it will the Hawkeyes.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!

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