College football Week 5 best bets: 7 spread picks after major line movement
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No. 4 Miami visits Clemson as a 16.5-point favorite in college football Week 5, and four of these seven spread picks lay the points, starting with Penn State at Northwestern on Friday night.
No. 8 Florida is a 5.5-point favorite at No. 25 Missouri, and No. 3 Notre Dame lays 21 points at coach Bill Belichick’s North Carolina. Five of the seven total picks take the over.
Hat tip to Game On Paper for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.
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Penn State (-2.5) vs. Northwestern
- Kickoff: Friday, October 2, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Penn State blew a 17-0 lead in a 24-20 home loss to Wisconsin last Saturday and fell out of the AP Top 25. Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht went 12 of 29 for 129 yards and an interception. Penn State still hasn’t beaten a Power 4 team.
“The great teams in college football have the ability to grow each week,” first-year Penn State coach Matt Campbell said Wednesday.
Northwestern covered as a 21-point underdog in a 29-23 loss at Indiana last week. Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles, a Michigan State transfer, runs an offense that ranks 10th nationally in adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play. Northwestern also opens its new Ryan Field on Friday. However, its defense allows 417.3 yards per game, which ranks 120th nationally, and tight end Luke Dehnicke is doubtful.
Penn State’s defense is the reason to lay the points. It ranks first in the country in EPA per pass allowed and gives up 11.5 points per game. The Nittany Lions have also won five of their last six games in Evanston.
Northwestern’s defense lets opponents face third downs of just 4.96 yards on average, which ranks 137th nationally. That should help a shaky Penn State offense stay on schedule, and it points to the over 45.5.
Picks: Penn State 27-24, Penn State -2.5, O45.5
Michigan vs. Minnesota (+5.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 12 p.m. ET, Fox
Michigan lost 20-19 to Iowa when Hank Brown hit Reece Vander Zee for a touchdown on the final play in Ann Arbor. Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood threw for a career-high 276 yards and two scores. But Michigan also gave up a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown, and first-year coach Kyle Whittingham’s team ranks 109th in the country in penalties per game.
Minnesota is 3-1 after a 27-24 win at Washington as an 11-point underdog. Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey went 21 of 29 for 204 yards and three touchdowns. The defense sacked Demond Williams Jr. seven times, and Washington ran for just 40 yards.
“I thought Drake Lindsey played a really outstanding game and managed the game really well,” Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck said.
The Michigan defense ranks 12th nationally in EPA per rush allowed. Still, the Wolverines rank 96th in EPA per rush on offense, so they’ll have trouble pulling away on the ground.
Fleck is 0-4 in Little Brown Jug games, and Minnesota hasn’t won the trophy since 2014. However, his defense ranks 18th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed. Underwood and Lindsey are both coming off career days, and that points to the over 43.5.
Picks: Michigan 24-20, Minnesota +5.5, O43.5
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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina (+21)
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
No. 3 Notre Dame can start 5-0 for the first time under coach Marcus Freeman. Irish quarterback CJ Carr accounted for four touchdowns in a 49-10 win at Purdue. Notre Dame ranks first in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, and its defense allows 199 yards per game.
North Carolina is 2-1 in Belichick’s second season and comes off a bye. The Tar Heels beat TCU 15-10 in Dublin and lost 28-20 at Clemson on September 19. Belichick also wouldn’t discuss his quarterback plan this week.
“I don’t want to get into a musical-chair game there,” Belichick said.
Freeman pointed to the Tar Heels’ defense. “On defense, they do a really good job of not giving up the big play,” Freeman said.
Two weeks to prepare and a defense that limits big plays should keep the former Patriots coach’s team within 21 points. North Carolina’s offense ranks 109th in EPA per play, and Notre Dame’s defense ranks fourth in EPA per pass allowed. That points to the under 47.5.
Picks: Notre Dame 30-10, North Carolina +21, U47.5
Florida (-5.5) vs. Missouri
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
No. 8 Florida is 4-0 for the first time since 2019 under first-year coach Jon Sumrall. The Gators beat then-No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28 and ran for 302 yards. Running back Jadan Baugh had 29 carries for 142 yards and three touchdowns. He joined Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor as the only Florida backs with five straight 100-yard games.
“That means everything to me, just having my name up there with those guys,” Baugh said.
Florida ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive EPA per play. However, its defense ranks 122nd in EPA per rush allowed.
No. 25 Missouri lost 31-24 at Mississippi State after leading 24-17 in the third quarter. Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns. But Missouri ranks 107th in EPA per rush, so it isn’t built to attack Florida’s weak spot.
The Tigers’ pass defense ranks 21st in EPA allowed, and Missouri ranks second in net field position. That should keep this under 57.5, while Baugh and the Florida ground game cover the 5.5.
Picks: Florida 33-23, Florida -5.5, U57.5
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Louisville (-3.5) vs. NC State
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Louisville fell out of the AP Top 25 after Wake Forest blocked a late field goal in a 30-27 win in Louisville. Cardinals quarterback Lincoln Kienholz completed 27 of 36 passes for 324 yards and ran for two scores. However, the Ohio State transfer got hurt late in the game.
“He has something,” Louisville coach Jeff Brohm said Monday. Kienholz is a game-time decision, and West Georgia transfer Davin Wydner would start if he can’t play.
NC State is 2-2 and hasn’t beaten a Power 4 team. Its wins came against Richmond and Appalachian State. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren pointed out that Louisville’s two losses came by 3 points each.
“It’s probably the most talented roster we’ll see this year in Louisville,” Doeren said.
Louisville ranks 13th nationally in adjusted EPA per play and has a plus-6 turnover margin. NC State’s defense ranks 111th in adjusted EPA per play allowed and 120th against the pass. Louisville averages 41.3 points per game, so the Cardinals should cover 3.5 points and push this over 58.5 even if Wydner starts.
Picks: Louisville 44-17, Louisville -3.5, O58.5
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Kentucky (+3) vs. South Carolina
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network
No. 24 Kentucky is 3-1 under first-year coach Will Stein. The Wildcats won 31-21 at Texas A&M and then beat South Alabama 45-21 behind 386 rushing yards. Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey has eight touchdown passes and one interception in four starts.
South Carolina is 2-2 and 0-2 in the SEC after a 49-18 loss at Alabama. The Gamecocks have lost seven straight conference games. Coach Shane Beamer also suspended edge rusher Dylan Stewart indefinitely for punching an Alabama player, and Stewart won’t play Saturday.
“Coach (Will) Stein has done an awesome job in a short period of time,” Beamer said.
Beamer is 4-1 against Kentucky. Still, the Wildcats rank 17th nationally in rushing success rate, and South Carolina ranks 88th in EPA per rush allowed. The Gamecocks also rank 129th in net field position.
Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers leads an offense that ranks 12th in EPA per rush. Both teams should move the ball on the ground, and that points to the over 53.5.
Picks: Kentucky 31-27, Kentucky +3, O53.5
Miami (-16.5) vs. Clemson
- Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
No. 4 Miami is 4-0 and averages 51.8 points per game after a 52-3 win over Central Michigan. Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah leads the country in passing efficiency and completion rate at 88.7%, and he’s tied for first with 14 touchdown passes. Receiver Malachi Toney averages 141 receiving yards per game, and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is expected back from an upper-body injury.
Clemson is 3-1 and 2-0 in the ACC. The Tigers lost 51-10 at LSU in the opener and then won three straight with freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds. But running back David Eziomume is expected to miss the rest of the season with a lower-leg injury.
“We’ll have to play, by far, our best game to have a chance to beat those guys,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said.
Clemson ranks 113th nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play and 133rd in EPA per pass. Miami’s defense ranks third in rushing success rate allowed and gave up 158 rushing yards total in its first four games.
Miami hasn’t won at Clemson since 2010. Still, its offense converts 65.7% of third and fourth downs, which ranks third nationally. The Hurricanes’ scoring average alone clears 47.5, and their defense keeps Clemson from closing the 16.5-point gap.
Picks: Miami 38-10, Miami -16.5, O47.5
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