Five reasons why Auburn will upset Tennessee in Week 5

Five reasons why Auburn will upset Tennessee in Week 5

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Five reasons why Auburn will upset Tennessee in Week 5

The Auburn Tigers have their bags packed and are ready to trek to Knoxville to face the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers for their first true road game of the season.

Earlier this week, we examined several factors that could lead to Auburn returning to the Plains with a loss. Today, we will take a more positive approach by showing five reasons why Auburn can pull off the upset in Neyland Stadium.

Early reports show Auburn as a seven-point underdog, and ESPN gives the home-standing Volunteers a 71% chance to win the game. However, history is on Auburn's side, with the Tigers winning six of their last seven games over Tennessee dating back to 2003, and three straight games in Knoxville.

It is possible for Auburn to pull off a key upset on Saturday, but several things need to bounce their way. Here are five ways that, if done well, will lead Auburn to victory over Tennessee on Saturday.

If Auburn thwarts Tennessee's run game

Sep 26, 2026; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers lineman Cody Sigler (94) signals first down after the Tigers converted a fourth & short during the fourth quarter against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images

One area of Tennessee's offense that Auburn could exploit is the run game. Tennessee has graded above 60.0 in run blocking only once this season, according to Pro Football Focus, while Auburn has graded higher than 75.5 in run defense three times.

Auburn has limited its opposition to 103, 50, and 112 rushing yards in wins this season, and if it holds the Volunteers' run game to a low output, it could mean great things for the Tigers.

If Auburn gives Faizon Brandon fits

Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon (11) throws a pass during a college football game between Tennessee and Georgia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on Sept. 12, 2026.

Auburn will face a true freshman quarterback for the second straight week on Saturday when it opposes Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon. Brandon has held his own this season by completing 62% of his passes for 697 yards and seven scores with zero interceptions. He is also dangerous on his feet, adding 139 yards to his total with three additional touchdowns.

However, he is still a freshman and is capable of making mistakes. If Auburn can penetrate the Vols' offensive line and force Brandon to make critical mistakes in crucial moments, it could give the Tigers the breaks they need to get a win.

If Byrum Brown takes control of the game

Auburn Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown (17) celebrates his touchdown run as Auburn Tigers take on Vanderbilt Commodores at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala. on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Auburn Tigers defeated Vanderbilt Commodores 21-15.

Tennessee is one of the SEC's best at defending the pass. The good news for Auburn is that Byrum Brown has two reliable targets in Keshaun Singleton and Chas Nimrod who can challenge the Volunteers' defensive backfield and move the ball down the field. Another positive sign for Auburn is that the Tigers' offensive line made great progress against Vanderbilt last week in pass blocking, grading out at 87.0 and allowing just six pressures and one sack, according to Pro Football Focus.

If the starts align for Brown to have great blocking, reliable targets, and wide running lanes, it could translate to a great day for Auburn on the road.

If Alex Golesh returns to Knoxville in a familiar groove

Tennessee football offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Alex Golesh answers questions during media day in Knoxville, Tenn. on Sunday, July 31, 2022.Kns Alice Bar

Tennessee's current run of success began in 2021 when Josh Heupel brought Alex Golesh with him from UCF to lead the Volunteers offense. That decision led Tennessee to produce the No. 3 offense (475.3 yards per game) in 2021 and the top offense in the conference in 2022 (525.5 yards per game).

Sure, times have changed since Golesh left Rocky Top in 2023 to take over as the head coach of USF's program, including its schemes. However, if Golesh "feels at home" in Knoxville on Saturday, it could lead to a great offensive performance.

If the Smoky Mountain rain works in Auburn's favor

Tennessee fans wear rain jackets before the Tennessee football game against ETSU at Neyland Stadium on September 6, 2025.

The National Weather Service calls for a 70% chance of showers on Saturday afternoon in Knoxville, which will give way to thunderstorms later in the day. We know it is silly to list weather as a factor for Auburn, especially when they will be on the road, but a few breaks could bounce their way because of it.

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This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Five reasons why Auburn will upset Tennessee in Week 5

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