Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Iowa
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College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
The Buckeyes return to Kinnick Stadium this weekend for the first time since that infamous day in 2017. Ohio State is looking to build up its College Football Playoff resume with a win over the No. 14 team in the country, while Iowa looks to ride momentum coming off an electric 20-19 walk-off victory over Michigan last weekend.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 27.8 (Rank: 3)
- Proj. W-L: 9.7-2.8
- Win Out %: 16.4
- 6 Wins %: 99.7
- Win Conf. %: 40.6
- CFP %: 68.8
- Make NC %: 21.1
- Win NC %: 12.0
Iowa
- FPI: 12.8 (Rank: 25)
- Proj. W-L: 8.7-3.4
- Win Out %: 0.8
- 6 Wins %: 98.5
- Win Conf. %: 3.0
- CFP %: 22.5
- Make NC %: 1.1
- Win NC %: 0.4
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 82.9%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 2 (down 1 from last week)
- Rating: 28.8
- Offense: 41.6 (1st)
- Defense: 12.7 (3rd)
- Special Teams: -0.1 (84th)
Iowa
- Rank: No. 19 (down 1 from last week)
- Rating: 14.8
- Offense: 29.0 (51st)
- Defense: 14.5 (10th)
- Special Teams: 0.3 (16th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 11.5 points
- Win Probability: 76%
- Projected Score (rounded): 30-19
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 93.72 (2nd)
- Iowa: 83.83 (13th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 28.74 (2nd)
- Iowa: 14.40 (16th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Iowa by 11.4 on the road (80% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 8.94 (6th)
- Offense: 69.34 (4th)
- Defense: 44.26 (1st)
- Iowa: 8.72 (9th)
- Offense: 60.60 (37th)
- Defense: 41.57 (5th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 28, Iowa 17 (81% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
| Rank | Metric | Ohio State Offense vs. Iowa Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 0.51 | EPA/Pass | 0.04 | 63rd |
| 43rd | 0.12 | EPA/Rush | -0.29 | 2nd |
| 5th | 65.5% | Available Yards % | 26.6% | 3rd |
| 40th | Own 32 | Starting Field Position | Own 23 | 5th |
| 2nd | 0.35 | Early Downs EPA/Play | -0.03 | 37th |
| 26th | 51.9% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 30.9% | 11th |
| 33rd | 6.33 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.27 | 58th |
| Rank | Metric | Iowa Offense vs. Ohio State Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 0.14 | EPA/Pass | -0.19 | 12th |
| 109th | -0.08 | EPA/Rush | -0.17 | 14th |
| 74th | 46.1% | Available Yards % | 33.4% | 14th |
| 26th | Own 34 | Starting Field Position | Own 33 | 115th |
| 47th | 0.11 | Early Downs EPA/Play | -0.14 | 8th |
| T-96th | 38.3% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 37.7% | 31st |
| 41st | 6.47 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.40 | T-49th |
Advanced Metrics Explainer
EPA (Expected Points Added)
- How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation
- Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
- A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20
- EPA is probability-based, not exact
- An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points
- On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation
- EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring
Available Yards %
- Measured from starting field position to end zone
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%
Prior Meetings
Ohio State owns the all-time record against Iowa, 48-3-15, dating back to 1922.
The Buckeyes have won each of the last two meetings against the Hawkeyes, both of which were played in Columbus, but Iowa demolished Ohio State 55-24 in the last matchup played in Iowa City.
Ohio State has won 15 of the last 17 meetings between the two Big Ten programs, with the Buckeyes’ only other loss also coming at Kinnick Stadium in a 33-7 defeat in 2004.
Ryan Day is 2-0 coaching against Iowa, averaging 44.5 points per game in the two meetings and winning by an average margin of 36 points. These two teams last played in 2024, where Ohio State won 35-7.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
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