Florida vs. Missouri prediction, odds, pick for SEC clash in Week 5

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Jon Sumrall and his squad make their way to Missouri, as the Florida Gators visit the Tigers on Saturday afternoon. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Florida-Missouri prediction and pick.

Florida enters the game sitting at 4-0. They started the season with a 66-21 win over the Florida Atlantic Owls in Week 1. They secured a 52-3 blowout win over Campbell, squeezed out a 44-39 nailbiter at Auburn, then put together an incredible display in their 52-28 upset win over Ole Miss in Week 4. This allowed them to jump all the way up to No. 8 in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

Meanwhile, Missouri is also 3-1. They opened the season against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It was a dominant victory for the Tigers, cruising to a 54-14 win in the season opener. They went on to take down Kansas 38-21 on the road and beat Troy 27-17 at home in Week 3 before falling to Mississippi State by a 31-24 score.

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Florida and Missouri have met 13 times prior to this game, with the Tigers having seven wins over the Gators’ six victories. The Tigers took the win back in 2023, winning the game 33-31. The two teams have flip-flopped wins in recent years.

Odds provided by BetOnline

Florida vs. Missouri Odds

Florida: -6 (-111)

Missouri: +6 (-109)

Over: 57.5 (-115)

Under: 57.5 (-105)

Florida vs. Missouri Key Injuries

Florida- WR Vernell Brown III (Doubtful), WR Bailey Stockton (Probable), WR Eric Singleton Jr. (Probable), Davian Groce (Out), RB Kelvin Jimenez (Out)

Missouri- DL Langden Kitchen (Out), DL Darris Smith (Out), TE Gavin Hoffman (Out), WR Jabari Brady (Out), OG Cayden Green (Out), RB Ahmad Hardy (Out)

Florida vs. Missouri Betting Trends

Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 road games.
Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games in October.
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Keys to Florida vs. Missouri matchup

The Gators hope to have their leading receiver, Vernell Brown III, who strained a knee against Ole Miss. He has 17 catches for 271 yards and two touchdowns to go with two punt return TDs. The Gators rank fifth nationally in total offense at 532.8 yards per game. Florida running back Jadan Baugh has shot into contention for the Doak Walker Award, given to the nation’s top running back. He’s No. 2 nationally in rushing with 600 yards through his first four games, and he has a nation-leading 11 touchdown runs. Aaron Philo has been strong with his performances at quarterback, throwing for 917 yards and seven touchdowns and two interceptions while adding three rushing scores to his name.

Myles Graham stands out as the star tackle on the Florida defense. He has racked up 28 tackles and one fumble recovery. Jayden Woods stands out as a solid pass rusher, recording up to 19 tackles four sacks and a forced fumble. As for defenders who can force turnovers, DJ Coleman, Dijon Johnson and Cormani McClain lead the unit with interceptions.

The Tigers remain without their All-American running back, Ahmad Hardy, who was shot as an innocent bystander following a concert in Mississippi in the offseason. Hardy has yet to return to practice, leaving Jamal Roberts in the feature role. Robert has been solid with his performances, racking up 89 carries for 395 yards and three touchdowns. Austin Simmons leads the offense with 70 completions for 947 yards and 11 touchdowns, having no interceptions so far. Two receivers have flourished in the attack, seeing Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode combine for 47 catches for 725 yards and nine touchdowns.

Missouri hopes to have starting edge rushers Langden Kitchen and Darris Smith available soon, as both have been dealing with lower-body injuries. However, they will be absent for the game this weekend. Missouri has been prone to giving up big plays this season, allowing five of at least 20 yards and two of more than 40 in last week’s loss to the Bulldogs. Nicholas Rodriguez leads the unit with 39 tackles and a sack, while Santana Banner provides 35 tackles and two pass deflections. Jahlil Florence has made many stops in the secondary, breaking up six passes and making an interception. Meanwhile, Daeden Hopkins has been strong with his pass rushing after racking up six sacks and two forced fumbles.

Florida vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

This matchup between Florida and Missouri stands out as an intriguing matchup. Jon Sumrall and the Gators are on a mission to make their case for a spot in the CFP, while the Tigers try to bounce back from their recent loss. Even with Missouri being the hosts, Florida will cause them a lot of trouble with their explosive offense. Florida gets the win in this one and covers, while the under also hits.

Final Florida vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick: Florida -6 (-111) and under 57.5 (-105)

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