Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 5
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There was one ranked-vs-ranked matchup in the Big Ten last weekend, and the other ranked teams that played were able to win their games. We now have a few surprises at the top of the Big Ten standings, including UCLA and Northwestern. And there are a few surprises at the bottom of the standings including Washington and Illinois. Purdue got its first conference win in a couple of years with their win over Illinois-which dropped Illinois into the bottom half of the conference.
Maryland and Michigan State have lost their last 3 games while Illinois, Michigan, Penn State, and Washington have lost their last two. Indiana, Nebraska, and UCLA have yet to lose a game so far this season.
How do the rankings shake out now that most of the Big Ten teams have played at least one conference game (Oregon is the only team to have played just one conference game so far while USC has played 3).
Polls
The Big Ten has 6 teams ranked in both the Coaches Poll and in the AP Poll. Here are Big Ten teams in the polls (AP/Coaches):
- Ohio State (5/6) unchanged in both polls
- Indiana (7/5) down 1 in the AP and unchanged in the Coaches
- Oregon (13/13) Up 2 in both the AP and in the Coaches
- USC (19/17) Down 1 in the AP and up 1 in the Coaches
- Iowa (20/18) Down 6 in the AP and down 4 in the Coaches
- UCLA (21/22) Up 2 in the AP and up 1 in the Coaches
Iowa’s drop makes sense since they lost by double-digits at home. The other changes were minor and were probably more of a reflection of what the other teams did than what the Big Ten teams did.
In addition, there are 4 other teams getting votes in the polls. Nebraska is #31 in the AP poll and #28 in the Coaches. Northwestern is #30 in both polls. Wisconsin is #28 in the AP and #31 in the Coaches poll. And Minnesota is also getting votes int Coaches poll; they are #32 in the AP and #33 in the Coaches.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 74 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
There have been some major changes for most of the teams since the preseason-which certainly shows that preseason rankings are not always very accurate. But now that we are 5 games (for most teams) into the season, these rankings should be a better indicator-although they could still change a lot with more conference games.
Rutgers has the biggest change since the preseason; they are down 53 places. Illinois is down 44, and Washington is down 41.
UCLA is up the most since the preseason; up 43 places. Coach Chesney seems to have that program going in the right direction, but that could change as they get into the meat of Big Ten play. Nebraska (+26), Northwestern (+28), and Wiscosin (+28) are other Big Ten teams up by more than 25 places.
Other Rankings
There are other rankings of all FBS teams. Here is a table comparing the Massey Composite with some of the more popular rankings. (Note that some of these other rankings are included in the Massey Composite, but not all of them.) This should provide an image of how consistent the rankings are.
| School | Massey Composite | SP+ | ESPN FPI | CBS Sports | Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 70 | 52 | 54 | 69 | 58 |
| Indiana | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Iowa | 25 | 34 | 26 | 19 | 23 |
| Maryland | 84 | 61 | 79 | 73 | 78 |
| Michigan | 38 | 26 | 32 | 48 | 41 |
| Michigan State | 61 | 76 | 62 | 77 | 62 |
| Minnesota | 36 | 53 | 59 | 34 | 38 |
| Nebraska | 14 | 12 | 13 | 28 | 18 |
| Northwestern | 22 | 33 | 17 | 30 | 16 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Oregon | 11 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| Penn State | 35 | 30 | 20 | 44 | 31 |
| Purdue | 68 | 81 | 70 | 68 | 60 |
| Rutgers | 114 | 94 | 89 | 100 | 86 |
| UCLA | 16 | 21 | 35 | 16 | 14 |
| USC | 23 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 33 |
| Washington | 59 | 41 | 52 | 43 | 53 |
| Wisconsin | 21 | 44 | 33 | 31 | 19 |
There are some noticeable disagreements in these rankings. Eight of the teams vary by more than 20 places between their best and worst rankings. These include Maryland (61 to 84), Michigan (26 to 48), Minnesota (34 to 59), Penn State (20 to 44), Purdue (60 to 81), Rutgers (86 to 114), UCLA (14 to 35), and Wisconsin (19 to 44). Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon, the top-ranked teams in the Big Ten currently, are the only ones that don’t vary by more than 6 places.
Half of the Big Ten teams are in the top-25 in at least one of the rankings. One team, Penn State, is in the top-25 in the ESPN FPI but not at least getting votes in either of the major polls. On the other hand, Minnesota is getting votes in both major polls but is not in the top-25 in any of these rankings; they aren’t even in the top-50 in a couple of them.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
| Overall Rnk | Off | Def | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 47 | 22 | 84 | 26 |
| Indiana | 5 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Iowa | 23 | 72 | 11 | 1 |
| Maryland | 68 | 79 | 64 | 57 |
| Michigan | 28 | 54 | 14 | 88 |
| Michigan State | 69 | 84 | 68 | 22 |
| Minnesota | 51 | 74 | 29 | 37 |
| Nebraska | 16 | 14 | 26 | 69 |
| Northwestern | 31 | 32 | 32 | 24 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 1 | 2 | 93 |
| Oregon | 9 | 8 | 21 | 16 |
| Penn State | 17 | 38 | 20 | 35 |
| Purdue | 72 | 49 | 101 | 13 |
| Rutgers | 94 | 57 | 125 | 46 |
| UCLA | 27 | 21 | 45 | 44 |
| USC | 15 | 6 | 60 | 55 |
| Washington | 36 | 52 | 19 | 71 |
| Wisconsin | 30 | 68 | 10 | 63 |
Seven Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall, and the top 3 here are the same as the top 3 in the other rankings.
Seven of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten. Illinois and UCLA have top-25 offenses, but aren’t in the top-25 overall. Iowa and Penn State are top-25 overall, but their offenses are not-and in the case of Iowa, they aren’t even in the top 70.
The Big Ten has 3 of the top 10 defenses and 8 of the top 25 defenses. Michigan, UW, and Wisconsin all have top-25 defenses, but aren’t in the top-25 overall. Nebraska and USC are in the top-25 overall, but don’t have a top-25 defense-although Nebraska is very close at #26. UW played the #29 defense and the #60 defense and still must play the #7 (Indiana), the #11 (Iowa), the #20 (Penn State), and the #21 (Oregon), along with the #26 (Nebraska).
We are finally seeing UW’s special teams ranking move up. For 2025 and for most of this season, UW’s ST rank has been above 90; now it is 71. Iowa’s special teams was #1 last season and is currently #1 again. While UW’s improvement is noticeable (both in rankings and on the field), Minnesota’s ranking is even more dramatic. Their special teams finished #102 last season but are currently #37. Michigan State (79 to 22) has also seen an improvement. Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Penn State have all seen their special teams rankings drop by more than 25 places.
Oregon is the only team in the top-25 in all three phases while Maryland, Minnesota, and Rutgers aren’t in the top-25 in any phase.
Win Total Projections
Here are the current win total projections from ESPN’s FPI. These reflect the current FPI rankings for the teams and their remaining opponents.
- Indiana: 10.9
- Ohio State: 10.0
- Oregon: 9.1
- Nebraska: 9.0
- UCLA: 8.7
- Wisconsin: 8.5
- Northwestern: 8.3
- Penn State: 8.2
- Iowa: 8.2
- USC: 7.8
- Michigan: 6.1
- Minnesota: 6.0
- Washington: 5.2
- Illinois: 4.4
- Michigan State 4.4
- Purdue: 4.2
- Maryland: 3.9
- Rutgers: 2.3
UW is not one of the teams with a better than 50% chance to get to 6 wins (and a bowl game).
Week 6 Games
There are 8 games this week in the Big Ten; most are conference games, but Northwestern in playing their last non-conference game. Three Big Ten teams are off this week: Michigan, Rutgers, and Wisconsin. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 6 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 60% | 59% | 45% | Washington | 40% | 41% | 55% |
| Illinois | 54% | 61% | 64% | Michigan State | 46% | 39% | 36% |
| Indiana | 69% | 82% | 69% | Nebraska | 31% | 18% | 31% |
| Maryland | 2% | 1% | 3% | Ohio State | 98% | 99% | 97% |
| Minnesota | 53% | 63% | 66% | Purdue | 47% | 37% | 34% |
| Ball State | 1% | 0% | 1% | Northwestern | 99% | 100% | 99% |
| UCLA | 15% | 16% | 27% | Oregon | 85% | 84% | 73% |
| USC | 38% | 37% | 52% | Penn State | 62% | 63% | 48% |
There is agreement in most of these games. The two exceptions are the Iowa-UW game and the USC-Penn State game.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Washington is favored in just one of their remaining games-next week at Purdue, and even then the win percentage is less than 55%.
Final Notes
UCLA, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are all 2-0 in the Big Ten currently; Oregon is 1-0. However, according to ESPN’s FPI, Indiana (#108), UCLA (#113), and Nebraska (#123) have had the easiest schedules in the Big Ten so far. We’ll find out a lot more about these teams this weekend as four of these teams face off this weekend.
Three Big Ten teams have some of the toughest remaining schedules in college football. This includes USC (#1), Ohio State (#8), and Nebraska (#9). Wisconsin (#60) and Penn State (#67) have a couple of the easiest among P4 teams; according to ESPN’s FPI, only Wake Forest has an easier schedule (#69) than Penn State. (Louisville, UCF, Clemson, Texas Tech, NC State, and Kansas State are between Wisconsin and Penn State in remaining strength of schedule rank.)
UW is clearly one of several Big Ten teams that have underperformed so far this season. I imagine that several Big Ten fan bases would argue that their team has underperformed the most, including Illinois, Michigan, Penn State, and Rutgers (in addition to UW).
UW has 7 more conference games. Unfortunately, only two of those opponents are currently ranked below UW (in the Massey Composite ranking). That means that UW will need at least one upset in order to make a bowl game this season (and assuming they beat the two teams ranked below them: Purdue and Michigan State). A win over Iowa on Friday would go a long way to improving the outlook for their season, but it will certainly not be easy.
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