Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals

Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals

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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals

The Florida State Seminoles are traveling to Kentucky to meet the Louisville Cardinals for another ACC Friday Night Lights game at the L&N Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN.

Florida State (3-2, 1-1 ACC) leads the all-time series 18-6, including a 7-3 record at Louisville (2-3, 1-2 ACC). FSU has won the last two games against the Cardinals, including a 16-6 victory in the 2023 ACC Championship Game and a 35-31 win in their most recent regular-season matchup in Louisville in 2022. The Cardinals are 4-6 against the Seminoles since joining the ACC in 2014.

The Cardinals took a second straight defeat last Saturday, dropping a 31-28 contest at NC State. All three of Louisville’s losses this season have come by three points. Seven of its last eight losses dating back to 2024 have come by three points or less.

The Cardinals have eight touchdowns of 50 yards or more this season, the most of any team in FBS. Five different Louisville players have scored a touchdown of 50 yards or more this season. Louisville is averaging 486 yards per game, second-best in the ACC, and has 37 plays of 20 yards or more through five games, tied with Indiana for the most in the country.

Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has rushed for 158 yards on the ground this season and is tied for fifth nationally among quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. In the first five games, Kienholz has completed 96 of 139 of his passes for a 69.1 completion percentage, 9 touchdowns with 1 interception, and is averaging 278 yards per game.

The Cardinals rushed for 231 yards in the loss at NC State, with Miami native Isaac Brown rushing for 125 yards on nine carries, his 12th 100-yard game. Keyjuan Brown leads the Cardinals in rushing with 367 yards, averaging 9.7 yards per carry.

Wide receiver Tre Richardson leads the Cards with 28 receptions for 445 receiving yards and has scored three touchdowns (2 receiving, 1 rushing). The three touchdowns Richardson has scored this season have been 30, 62, and 38 yards. Of his 33 offensive touches this season, 19 have gone for at least 10 yards and nine have covered 20 yards or more. The only player in the ACC with more plays of 20 yards or more is Miami’s Malachi Toney.

Tight end Jaleel Skinner has hauled in 14 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns through five games. Skinner is one of just 20 players in the FBS to have multiple 60-yard plays from scrimmage and the only tight end to do it, scoring touchdowns from 61 and 69 yards.

Overall, the Cardinals rank 17th in the nation in total offense (486 yards/game), 22nd in scoring offense (38.6 points/game), T-24th in passing offense (287.4 yards/game), and 38th in rushing offense (198.6 yards/game).

Similar to the Seminoles, Louisville’s defense is struggling. Linebacker J.T. Capers leads the defense with 38 tackles, followed by defensive back Kaleb Beasley with 35 tackles and 3 interceptions. The Cardinal defense ranks 125th in total defense, giving up 423 yards per game, 130th in passing yards allowed (267 yards/game), and 113th in scoring defense (29.2 points/game).

Florida State is coming off its most impressive win of the season, notching a 38-7 win over Virginia last Saturday. Quarterback Ashton Daniels’ five touchdowns in the victory set an FSU record, now placing him third nationally with nine rushing touchdowns and ranked 3rd with 15.87 yards per completion, while also leading the ACC in rushing scores and in yards per completion. His 183 passing yards, career-high 136 rushing yards, and five touchdowns against Virginia make him the only FBS player since 1995 to reach those marks in a game.

FSU’s improving defense now ranks 103rd in the nation, giving up 385 yards/game, 127th in passing defense (266 yards/game), and ranked T-98th in third-down percentage, allowing opponents to convert almost 41% of the time on third-down attempts.

However, the Noles’ defense has been decent at stopping opponents behind the line of scrimmage, averaging 3.4 sacks per game for 8th best in the nation, and 20th in tackles for loss with 7.2 TFLs per game.

TRIVIA:

  • Louisville junior wide receiver Lawayne McCoy played two seasons at Florida State before transferring this year to Louisville. In two years with the Seminoles, McCoy played in 20 games with 33 receptions for 448 yards and three touchdowns.
  • Florida State Director of Football Strategy/Offensive Assistant Gabe Fertitta was a quality control assistant at Louisville during the 2021 season.

Florida State is trending as a 3.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 59.5 points according to FanDuel.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
  • Curt Weiler (season record: 4-1, 2-3 ATS)

Welp. Last week’s game is certainly making me at least consider the possibility that I was being a bit harsh about this team.

Somehow, FSU enters this game with a better record than Louisville. The Seminoles haven’t won a road game since 2023, but this Louisville team is coming off back-to-back losses to Wake Forest and NC State and has a knack for making a lot of mistakes.

I’m still not convinced that FSU has turned over a new leaf, but as a show of faith, I’ll give them some benefit of the doubt.

Florida State 31, Louisville 27

  • Jacob Smith (season record: 3-1)

FSU took down a genuinely good team in Virginia, and looking back on the Alabama game, we were probably the best punch against them up to this point that ended up losing. I’m going to go out on a pretty rickety limb here and say that FSU finally ends its 1,000+ day road losing streak and defeats Louisville.

Louisville’s run defense is allowing 156.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 92nd nationally. If Wisner and company can establish the run, or if Daniels can go for five touchdowns again, it’ll be a fun time for the Seminoles. Give me FSU to pull off the “upset.”

FSU 41, Louisville 31

  • NoleThruandThru (season record: 5-0)
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Louisville 41, FSU 38

  • Jessi Wynn(season record: 3-0)

Florida State enters the matchup with momentum from a two-game winning streak, including a dominant 38-7 win over Virginia. The Seminoles looked strong on both sides of the ball, with the offense finding success in both the running and passing games.

FSU has struggled on the road, but I think the confidence from this winning streak will carry over.

Noles 39, Louisville 32

  • Jordan Silversmith (season record: 4-1)

Like everyone else, I have to reconsider how I think the next three games will go for Florida State after last week’s win against Virginia. The Seminoles ripped through the UVA offensive line for 10 sacks, ran the quarterback effectively, and played their cleanest game in what seems like forever. They also get a break, even though they travel on a short week, by facing a reeling Louisville team that has lost two in a row. Plus, for whatever reason, FSU has played well against the Cards the last few times they have met.

However, one win isn’t enough for me to trust this team, especially on the road. The defense will have its hands full against Jeff Brohm’s offense, and one week does not mean all the problems are solved. FSU keeps this game close, but a bad turnover and a back-breaking touchdown drive result in a loss. Take UL to cover and the over.

UL 34, FSU 28

  • LastNoleOfKrypton (season record: 4-0)

I need to see it to believe it when it comes to FSU on the road; Louisville’s pass rush is fierce, so a successful formula is a lot of QB power and play-action shot. Louisville is bloodied and a mess on defense, but FSU hasn’t won a road game since 2023, so….

Louisville 35, FSU 31

  • Jon Marchant (season record: 4-1)

Louisville looked like a good, solid squad, but they keep losing close games.

FSU, meanwhile, looked like a completely different team from what we’ve seen since 2023. Will the real FSU please stand up? Can FSU win this game? Yes. But Friday night on the road is tough.

Louisville 28, FSU 24

  • Tim Scribble (season record: 4-1)

Friday’s game might be a battle of which team has the ball last. There should be a decent amount of points scored on both sides, though FSU could always “struggle.” In the end, I think UL has more firepower, and old friend Lawayne McCoy makes some key plays to secure the Louisville win.

Louisville 45, FSU 38

  • Matt Minnick (season record: 4-1, 4-1 ATS)

My, how the tables turn. All of a sudden, Louisville is the team in disarray, while Florida State is coming off its best game since beating Alabama to open the 2025 season. FSU’s offense has looked very good for large stretches the last few weeks, and most of those stretches occur when Norvell simplifies the number of reads Ashton Daniels has to process. If that continues, the ‘Noles should have no problem scoring 24+ points, as they have in every game this season.

Will 24 be enough? Not likely. Even in back-to-back losses, UL has put up 27 and 28 points, respectively. I need to see more than one week of good defense to believe FSU will hold UL to a season low on a short week in Louisville. So now the question becomes: can Florida State outscore the Cardinals? Call me crazy, but I say yes!

FSU 34, Louisville 30

  • Frank DaNole (season record: 3-2)

These two teams are similar in that both have decent offenses while fielding defenses that leave a lot to be desired.

This will be the second game when everything comes together for the Noles. The Noles are only 3.5-point underdogs as the road team for a reason. Vegas knows it, and the Seminoles know it.

The game will follow a similar storyline to what we witnessed last week. The Seminoles may not dominate at all three positional units for the entire game, but in the end FSU will win the offensive, defensive, and special teams battles because the FSU players will give 110% more effort, they will want it more, and they will play with more heart than their equally talented Cardinal opponents.

FSU Seminoles 38, Louie’s Flock 31

  • Perry Kostidakis (season record: 3-2, 3-2 ATS)

If there was ever a time for FSU to continue its success with its front seven, it’s this game. The Cardinals’ offensive line has struggled this season, giving up two sacks (81st in the country) and 6.4 tackles for loss (121st) per game. Defensively, Louisville has struggled as much as Florida State has — its 266.8 passing yards per game allowed ranks 130th in the country (FSU is 127 with 265.6) — so even if the defensive turnaround on the Seminoles’ end was fugazi, I do have confidence in their ability to put up points after another successful offensive showing.

What are the things that give me pause? Remembering the “turnaround” games from last season (Wake Forest, Virginia Tech) that weren’t really proof of anything, knowing that Papa John L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium is an intimidating place to try and snap a 10-game road losing streak, the soft factor of Louisville being motivated to snap out of its funk and the real factor of Lincoln Kienholz not just being a capable quarterback but a good dual-threat one who has just one interception on the season with a 69.1% completion rate.

I see a back-and-forth that sees Florida State separate early in the fourth, with a late touchdown sealing the deal. After getting checked in the form of a Florida State win last week, let’s hope “prove Perry wrong” doesn’t extend to two weeks in a row.

FSU 34, Louisville 28

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals: How to watch, stream, odds

Date

  • Friday, October 9th

Time

  • 7:00 p.m. ET

Watch/Stream

Listen

Spread

  • +3.5, Florida State

Over/Under

  • 59.5 points

Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker

This week’s guest picker isa long-time TN member GeoNole94, who will be celebrating his 16th anniversary later this month after joining on October 29, 2010 at 06:57:31 p.m. 

I vividly remember watching #4 FSU play at Louisville in 2002 during a tropical downpour on a Thursday night. Having arrived in Tallahassee for graduate school in the fall of 1985, I got to enjoy nine years of Bobby’s Dynasty firsthand in Doak Campbell Stadium—simply glorious! That heartbreaking overtime loss to Louisville came a few years before the start of the Lost Decade, but it was one of the first inklings that FSU’s remarkable run was coming to an end.

Fast forward 24 years, FSU travels to Louisville on a Friday night (minus a tropical storm) buoyed by the beatdown of Virginia, a potent offense (did Daniels really just score five running TDs?), and a defense that finally put together a solid game (did nine of TW’s boys really share in 10 sacks?). As a geologist, I have to wonder if we saw Seminole garnet and real gold or fool’s gold (aka, pyrite) on Saturday.

I am honored to gift Tomahawk Nation with my pearls of wisdom, although some of you know that I was literally 100% wrong when I forecast the Virginia game.

I expect Louisville’s offense will come out strong, supported by a vocal home-field crowd.   Likewise, I think that Mike has figured out how to use Daniel’s strengths (run!) while limiting his weaknesses (two passing reads, max). Louisville’s defense has been, well, not good. But I expect them to play their best at home on Friday in a must-win game.

The X factor for me remains—which FSU defense will show up? Assuming that the D delivers even half of the UVA game on Friday night, then I think that Vegas has this one exactly backward. Yes, Mike gets his first road win since beating the Gators in November of 2023.

THE Florida State Seminoles 34, Louisville Sluggers 27

*The TN member with the closest final score prediction in the comment section below will be given the opportunity to be a guest picker later this season if they are interested in participating.

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