What To Watch For: Florida State Seminoles

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FLORIDA STATE WILL UTILIZE ZONE READ RUNS THIS WEEKEND

Ashton Daniels ran for five touchdowns last weekend, and I think Mike Norvell is smart enough to try to build on that success. Daniels has the luxury of having a very good running back who makes zone read runs very good plays to call in just about any situation. Four of the touchdown runs on Saturday were on zone read runs, with a mix of short-yardage situations and explosive runs.

While FSU had great success with these plays, it’s maybe more noteable that NC State had enough success with them against Louisville, that FSU would be silly to not incorporate them into their game plan this weekend. The Cards did a great job of gumming up the middle of the line to stop their running backs before they got going, but by doing so, it opened up the read option game for CJ Bailey to keep it around the edge of the defense. A better quarterback could have a field day on these plays.

WILL FLORIDA STATE BRING PRESSURE OR TRY TO AVOID BIG PLAYS

The Noles dominated a veteran Virginia offensive line last weekend for 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. It was a record for an FSU program that has had a ton of exceptional defensive players and defensive groups over the years. They got a lot of production from their defensive line, but Chris Jones got to the quarterback twice from his linebacker spot, and the linebackers as a group accounted for 3 of the sacks on the day. The pressures Tony White dialed up were very good for his front seven.

The difference this week is that Louisville has explosive talent all over the field, which Virginia does not have. The plan is out there against UVA because they don’t have any big-play threats outside of their quarterback. Can the Noles risk a blitz getting picked up and Tre Richardson running free down the field, or a quick screen to Tre Richardson breaking for a big play?

THE SEASON ISN’T OVER. WILL THAT SHOW IN LOUISVILLE’S PLAY

There is no path for Louisville to meet the expectations that this team had coming into the season, but there is still plenty to play for. Pride is the most obvious thing to point out here, but this is college football where the dumbest things happen every weekend. There is a path to the ACC championship game even though that path is too narrow to see today. If you lose on Friday, this all flips to trying to avoid being the worst team this program has fielded in nearly a decade.

College football has changed, but one thing has not. These players all want to play in the NFL, and nothing kills those chances like bad film. I always point back to Gerod Holliman, who led the nation in interceptions while also putting out some of the worst film possible for a safety due to poor tackling. He fell down the draft boards and never played a snap in the league. NFL decision makers like to see players playing with a full motor when things are going bad, so the veteran players on this team should keep that in mind.

For younger players, the goal should be to ensure you show your literal value as a player. Lawayne McCoy was the third option for FSU last year, but his best games were against their best opponents. In his final game, he put up over 100 yards with a few highlight plays mixed in, and now he is a starter with a much bigger role for the Cards. It may not be about impressing your current coaches like it used to be, but it’s about impressing whoever is willing to give you a better opportunity.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS WILL DECIDE THIS GAME

Louisville is the most polarizing team in the country when it comes to explosive plays. They started the season with a flurry of big throws down the field and big runs after the catch was made. Over the last few games, we’ve seen the ig play running backs start to get free for long runs as well. The issue for the offense is that they have been a bit too “boom or bust,” which has led to them not finishing drives often enough. The Cards are fifth in the nation in yards per play, but they are only ranked 22nd in scoring. If they can fix that disparity, it could factor into the outcome on Friday.

On the other hand, Louisville can’t stop gifting big plays to their opponents. Wake Forest was not an explosive offense until they came to Louisville. NC State was one of the least explosive offenses in the country before Jeff Brohm’s defense showed up. Florida State actually has a balanced offense when it comes to getting big plays without relying too heavily on them. They can also hit you with big plays in the passing and running game. We’re likely in for another frustrating game from the defensive side of the ball.

LOUISVILLE SHOULD EITHER SPEED UP ON OFFENSE OR SLOW DOWN

Louisville’s defense does not appear to be fixable at this point in the season, so it is probably time for Jeff Brohm to decide how his offense can best help the defense. That’s not to say that the defense is the sole reason for the team’s record, but the offense can adjust what they’re doing while also not taking away what they do best.

Brohm could speed things up on offense in an effort to get some cheap yardage due to the defense tiring out or just not being prepared for each play. Speeding things up can also lead to more possessions, which, of course, means more opportunities to score. Brohm has run a fast-paced offense before, so installing it would not be hard to do.

Brohm has repeatedly talked about how few possessions you get in a game and how you need to make them count. It may be worthwhile to consider slowing down on offense while also focusing on the intermediate and short passing game. Explosive plays will still be there with the running game as well as run-after-the-catch opportunities, but fewer possessions make defensive stops that much more impactful. So, if you can keep your offense on track while getting a stop or two, it could help blunt the impact of the issues on defense.

NOTES

• While Louisville really invested in this season financially, FSU barely brought in any players from Power Four programs.
• Austin Daniels has only had a few big games throwing the football in his career. One of those games was when he was the starter at Stanford two years ago.
• Miciah Danzy has literal “track speed”. He set the ACC record in the 400.
• As always, Louisville players are on trash-talk watch when playing against Florida schools. Stanquan Clark, TJ Capers, Isaac Brown, Lawayne McCoy, Daylen Russse, Cam White, and others will be on the field with guys they grew up with or played against in high school.
• You could make a fair argument that FSU has a worse pass defense than Louisville. They don’t have the blown coverages to blame.

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