What We’ve Learned From Penn State’s First Five Games
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Penn State’s 2026 season isn’t off to the start many fans had hoped for. New head coach Matt Campbell had his team at 3-0 after a weak non-conference schedule against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, but the Nittany Lions are now 0-2 in Big Ten play.
The weaknesses of this Penn State team have been exposed the last two weeks, while its strengths have struggled to stand out. Will this team turn the corner at some point? Tough to tell.
Since it’s nearly the halfway point of the college football season, here are some things that we’ve learned about this Penn State team so far.
What We’ve Learned From Penn State’s First Five Games
Penn State Has Taken a Step Back Talent-Wise
It’s clear just from watching the games that this is the least talented Penn State team in quite some time. The Nittany Lions lost several key players to the transfer portal in the offseason, such as Chaz Coleman (Tennessee), A.J. Harris (Indiana), Luke Reynolds (Virginia Tech), Ethan Grunkemyer (Virginia Tech), Dejuan Lane (Tennessee) and Tyseer Denmark (Virginia Tech).
They also lost out on blue-chip commits (four- and five-star recruits) in wide receiver Jerquaden Guilford (Ohio State), in-state offensive linemen Kevin Brown (West Virginia), athlete Matt Sieg (West Virginia), linebacker Terry Wiggins (Virginia Tech) and running back Messiah Mickens (Virginia Tech).
As a result, Penn State’s blue-chip ratio dropped from 63.9% in 2025 to 29.6% in 2026.
Campbell brought in 40 total transfers, 24 of which were from Iowa State. But some of them have struggled to transition to Big Ten competition.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has completed 54% of his passes for 357 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in the last two games; running back Carson Hansen has rushed eight times for 30 yards and one touchdown in the same time frame; Kooper Ebel has the most missed tackles on the defense, according to Pro Football Focus; Caleb Bacon and Ikenna Ezeogu have one sack between them; and Marcus Neal Jr. has allowed the most receptions, yards and touchdowns in coverage of any Penn State defender this season.
It hasn’t been all bad, though: Chase Sowell, Brett Eskildsen and Zay Robinson have been getting open and making plays when they get the ball; Ben Brahmer leads the team in touchdowns; and Jeremiah Cooper has been solid in coverage.
Matt Campbell Has His Work Cut Out For Him
The narrative around Campbell has been that he’s a great program builder who does more with less. Well, it looks like Penn State is in need of a rebuild, with less talent now occupying the locker room.
Campbell has taken Toledo, a MAC team, and Iowa State, a Big 12 team, and made both very respectable programs on a national level. But can Campbell take Penn State to contend for national championships? This has been the No. 1 question since Campbell was hired.
No matter how the rest of this season goes, Campbell will need to land an impressive transfer portal class, paired with a solid high school recruiting class, to reload the roster for the 2027 season.
Notable Penn State players in their last year of eligibility are: Becht, Sowell, Ezeogu, Bacon, Ebel, Cooper, Hansen, Audavion Collins, Ben Brahmer, James Patton, Zion Tracy, Gabe Burkle, Siale Taupaki, Keanu Williams and Dom Rulli. And that’s not including players who could enter the transfer portal or declare for the NFL Draft early.
Bowl Eligibility Is in Question
A loss this week to No. 19 USC would sit Penn State at 3-3 this season. The Nittany Lions will then have a road trip to a shaky 3-2 Michigan team, then will host 2-3 Purdue, play at 3-2 Washington, host 4-1 Minnesota and 1-4 Rutgers, then finish the season at 2-3 Maryland.
Based on how Penn State has played as of late, four losses against, presumably, USC, Michigan, Washington and Minnesota are legitimate possibilities and would set the Nittany Lions at 6-6. But if Penn State slips up against Purdue, Rutgers or Maryland, a bowl game would be out of the cards in this scenario.
This is a doomsday situation for Penn State, and although still unlikely, it is becoming more and more possible with each loss. Even Bill O’Brien and James Franklin surpassed the six-win mark in their first seasons at Penn State.
The White Out Could Change This Season’s Trajectory
The proposed doomsday scenario likely won’t become a reality with a win on Saturday. A win over a ranked team in the annual White Out game could revive the season.
Michigan looks quite vulnerable after dropping back-to-back games to No. 17 Iowa and Minnesota; Purdue has struggled; Washington has also lost back-to-back games, too; Minnesota is on a three-game winning streak; and Rutgers and Maryland have looked like the two worst teams in the conference. ESPN currently favors Penn State in every game the rest of the season, including against USC.
Here’s something interesting: Penn State is currently favored to win every upcoming matchup this season, according to ESPN Analytics.
vs. USC (62.0%)
at Michigan (50.1%)
vs. Purdue (88.4%)
at Washington (63.5%)
vs. Minnesota (84.1%)
vs. Rutgers (92.9%)
at Maryland (85.5%)— Mitch Corcoran (@MitchCorc18) October 7, 2026
Penn State may not have performed well as of late, but it’s clear that the players and coaches have not given up yet. One big win was enough to turn around Penn State’s Big Ten Championship-winning season a decade ago, and it could be the difference this season.
Main Image: David Banks-Imagn Images
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