Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction: The Red River Turning Point
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Oklahoma is struggling at 2-2, No. 1 Texas is 4-0, and it doesn’t matter.
Ohio State vs. Michigan and Auburn vs. Alabama have a certain existential quality to them as make-or-break moments at the end of a regular season. This week when Alabama plays Georgia, that’s going to have some bearing on the SEC and national championship races no matter what.
Oklahoma vs. Texas in the Red River Rivalry is one of those rivalries that tends to be its own thing that carves out its own place in the middle of a college football season.
Texas beat Oklahoma 23-6 last season. Oklahoma went to the College Football Playoff, and Texas didn’t. Oklahoma won 34-30 in 2023. Texas went to the College Football Playoff, and Oklahoma didn’t.
Oklahoma was amazing in 2021 and Texas was awful, but it took a miraculous second half from Caleb Williams to carry the Sooners to a 55-48 win. In 2015, Texas went 5-7, but it handed an Oklahoma team its only loss on the way to the CFP, and … we could do this for days.
Texas vs Oklahoma: Quick Hits
- Oklahoma hosts Kentucky after this, before going to Mississippi State.
- Texas has a run after dealing with the Sooners: Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri, at LSU.
- Texas leads the rivalry 65-51-5. It won the last two meetings, and it won the first one 28-2 in 1900.
How To Watch Texas vs Oklahoma
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
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Why Oklahoma Will Win
John Mateer is overfreakingdue for a massive performance.
The Oklahoma quarterback has been okay so far this season, but the interceptions against Michigan and Georgia were disastrous, and he’s not doing much of anything for one of the nation’s worst ground games. Last year he played hurt against the Longhorns and threw three picks in the 23-6 loss.
The Sooner defense has been great – don’t get into a twist over the 41-13 score against Georgia; OU only gave up 306 yards, and a big fumble return for a touchdown turned the game on its head.
Why Texas Will Win
No offense to Oklahoma and how big this game is, but you want to talk battle-tested? Texas came through in the clutch against Ohio State, and hung on when pressed against Tennessee on the road. The team is ready for everything Oklahoma will throw its way.
Texas has to avoid trying anything too crazy. Its defense is amazing, but so is Oklahoma’s. Yeah, Arch Manning has been underwhelming, but so far his role has been to let the defense and ground game do the work. But again, on the passing tests thing, when he had to come up large against Ohio State, he did. And remember …
Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction, Betting Lines
Who has had to deal with more pressure than 16 on Texas over the last few years? It got lost a bit in the overall narrative – because he was lousy a week later in a tight 16-13 win over Kentucky – but Manning went 21-of-27 for 166 yards and a touchdown and ran for 34 yards in the 23-6 win over OU.
The Sooner pass rush will keep the score low as it rolls through a leaky Texas offensive front, but like the Ohio State and Tennessee wins, the Longhorns will manage to come through in enough key moments to get by.
Texas 24, Oklahoma 16
Latest Consensus Line: Texas -7.5, o/u: 39.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2.5
Must See Rating (out of 5): 5
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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