Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Maryland
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College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
Ohio State’s lone home game in the month of October comes against Maryland. The Buckeyes are about to embark on a three-game stretch against ranked opponents, but first must get past Mike Locksley and the Terrapins.
Ryan Day has handled the Terps rather handily in their prior meetings, and Ohio State has never lost to Maryland since the East Coast program joined the Big Ten in 2014.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 28.8 (Rank: 1)
- Proj. W-L: 10.1-2.6
- Win Out %: 21.6
- 6 Wins %: 100
- Win Conf. %: 44.8
- CFP %: 77.1
- Make NC %: 23.7
- Win NC %: 13.3
Maryland
- FPI: -2.5 (Rank: 78)
- Proj. W-L: 3.9-8.1
- Win Out %: 0
- 6 Wins %: 8.1
- Win Conf. %: 0
- CFP %: 0
- Make NC %: 0
- Win NC %: 0
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 99%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 2 (no change from last week)
- Rating: 30.3
- Offense: 42.0 (2nd)
- Defense: 11.6 (2nd)
- Special Teams: -0.1 (100th)
Maryland
- Rank: No. 61 (down 5 from last week)
- Rating: 2.2
- Offense: 28.5 (57th)
- Defense: 26.3 (70th)
- Special Teams: 0.1 (58th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 30.5 points
- Win Probability: 97%
- Projected Score (rounded): 42-12
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 94.66 (3rd)
- Maryland: 67.53 (78th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 27.76 (1st)
- Maryland: -1.28 (69th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Maryland by 31.9 at home (98% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 8.99 (6th)
- Offense: 69.60 (4th)
- Defense: 44.16 (1st)
- Maryland: 7.23 (75th)
- Offense: 56.70 (70th)
- Defense: 28.48 (78th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 38, Maryland 10 (97% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
| Rank | Metric | Ohio State Offense vs. Maryland Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 0.49 | EPA/Pass | 0.09 | 75th |
| 67th | 0.03 | EPA/Rush | 0.09 | 91st |
| 4th | 66% | Available Yards % | 47.5% | 72nd |
| 40th | Own 32 | Starting Field Position | Own 31 | 89th |
| 5th | 0.27 | Early Downs EPA/Play | 0.10 | 89th |
| 23rd | 51.4% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 43.9% | 74th |
| 37th | 6.47 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.02 | 72nd |
| Rank | Metric | Maryland Offense vs. Ohio State Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114th | -0.14 | EPA/Pass | -0.17 | 16th |
| 103rd | -0.07 | EPA/Rush | -0.11 | 27th |
| 87th | 42.6% | Available Yards % | 32.9% | 7th |
| 14th | Own 34 | Starting Field Position | Own 32 | 103rd |
| 109th | -0.03 | Early Downs EPA/Play | -0.13 | 11th |
| 123rd | 32.8% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 38.8% | 43rd |
| 112th | 7.82 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.39 | 51st |
Advanced Metrics Explainer
EPA (Expected Points Added)
- How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation
- Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
- A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20
- EPA is probability-based, not exact
- An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points
- On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation
- EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring
Available Yards %
- Measured from starting field position to end zone
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%
Prior Meetings
Ohio State has won all nine meetings against Maryland dating back to 2014, when the Terrapins first joined the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes have faced off against Maryland four times under Ryan Day, scoring an average of just under 55 points per game in those meetings with an average margin of victory of over 35 points. The most lopsided of those four came in 2019, when Ohio State won 73-14.
The closest contest between the two programs came in 2018, when Ohio State needed overtime to escape with a 52-51 victory in College Park. The Buckeyes’ largest margin of victory against the Terps is 59 points, which they did in both 2019 (73-14) and in 2016 (62-3).
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
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