Eye of the Tiger: Pivotal position matchups LSU vs. Kentucky

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Since dropping their third game of the season at Ole Miss, LSU has bounced back with two very impressive performances.

One was against a reeling Texas A&M team who was coming off of a major upset at the hands of the same Kentucky Wildcats that the Tigers will face this weekend, while the other was against a severely over-matched opponent in McNeese.

Lane Kiffin’s squad responded about as perfectly as he could have hoped for following an early September loss. LSU now sits at 4-1 with a 1-1 record in the SEC, going in to their second road conference game. They are ranked #10 in both the AP and Coaches polls, while Kentucky sits at #24 in the Coaches Poll and unranked in the AP. They were at #24, but dropped to #26, just two votes shy of staying in the top-25 following an overtime victory against South Carolina. The Wildcats are also 4-1, but have played an extra SEC game and sit at 2-1.

We went unconventional last week by looking at position groups that I was hoping to see some extended depth and youth at. This week, we’ll get back to normal…mostly. This first battle that we will look at may not be exactly positions, but it could end up being the story of the entire game.

LSU 3rd down offense vs. Kentucky 3rd down defense

These two are polar opposites. LSU is 12th in the country (2nd in SEC) in 3rd down conversion rate at 51.9%. That’s exceptional. What’s not exceptional is what Kentucky’s defense is allowing on 3rd downs. Defensive coordinator, Jay Bateman, has seen his team allow opposing offenses to convert at a rate of 45.9% on 3rd downs. that’s 122nd out of 138 division 1 teams and dead last in the SEC.

If the Wildcats hope to slow down Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones, they must be able to get off of the field. The Kiffin/Weis offense is one of the last units that you want to constantly give a fresh set of downs to. I expect that LSU will use this to their advantage and try to wear down Kentucky. I do not believe we’ll see a firework type of gameplan from the offense. Look for Charlie Weis Jr. to call plays that allow his offense to stay in manageable down and distances, due to their confidence level in picking up 1st downs on 3rd or even 4th downs against a defense that struggles in those situations.

If those numbers look similar to what they do entering the game, the Tigers win by double digits.

LSU cornerbacks vs. Kentucky wide receivers

This is a fun match up because there’s LSU connections all around. PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett have been with the program for multiple years, meaning they’ve played with and practiced against Kentucky wide receiver, Nic Anderson. True freshman receiver Kenny Darby is another name that will be very familiar. While they may not have practiced against him, Darby was a long time LSU commit to Brian Kelly. Once Kiffin took over and Corey Barber Jr. flipped from Ole Miss to LSU, Darby was sent looking for a new home.

Kentucky became that new home and he is off to a phenomenal start. He leads the Wildcats with 25 receptions for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns. The lead in each of those 3 categories belongs to the freshman. While the numbers are smaller, former Tiger, Nic Anderson, is still off to a solid start in his new uniform. The 6’4 receiver has 9 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown.

Both players will certainly be motivated to prove why it was a mistake to let them go elsewhere. Darby is a Louisiana kid who spent years picturing himself in an LSU uniform, so the last second change before signing day was not idea. Anderson knows Woodland and Pickett very well and vice versa, so we should be in for a fun matchup.

LSU LB/S coverage vs. Kentucky tight ends

Not to harp too much on Kentucky’s pass catchers against Blake Baker’s defense, but it’s that important. Head Coach Will Stein’s offense utilizes multiple tight ends and both have produced very well. Willie Rodriguez is just a few catches behind Darby with 22 for 194 and a touchdown. His 8.8 yards per catch average may be small, but he’s the safety blanket for quarterback, Kenny Minchey.

Henry Boyer’s receptions and yards are more pedestrian at 8 for 116, but he’s tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns at 3 with Darby. He’s a weapon in the red zone and if/when the Wildcats get down there, keep an eye out for big #87 at 6’6, 270 pounds.

TJ Dottery has a season-long coverage grade of 90.5, ranking him near the top of linebackers in the SEC. Dahvon Keys has seen his struggles in the past when forced in coverage, so it will be interesting to see how Baker utilizes him and if Stein and former LSU offensive coordinator, Joe Sloan, try to attack him. Ty Benefield at the STAR position will also be a factor in this matchup and everyone is well aware of his abilities.

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