Kentucky vs #10 LSU: Final Thoughts and Prediction

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Kentucky football hosts the No. 10 LSU Tigers in the first night game of the season on Saturday, and the atmosphere at Kroger Field will be one of the best of all time. We have previewed Lane Kiffin's offense and Blake Baker's defense, as the Tigers have high level talent all over the field. We also laid out Kentucky's path to victory in this football game. It will take the Wildcats best shot to take down the Tigers, here are my final thoughts and prediction.

A lot of people are overlooking LSU's side of the injury report as they are without two All-American level players in tight end Trey'Dez Green and linebacker Whit Weeks, the Tigers will also be without starting nickel Dashawn Spears. Kentucky is down linebacker depth in a big way, as Alex Afari, Tavion Wallace and Antwan Smith are all out for this game. Kentucky is also down their backup nickel Jaden Smith, but the starting nickel Aaron Gates returns after missing last week. Kentucky is at full strength offensively, running back Jason Patterson and wide receiver DJ Miller are both ready to go.

We have talked all week about the crossover between these two teams; the long relationship between Kentucky offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker. Louisiana product and breakout true freshman Kenny Darby was committed to LSU at one time. Kentucky has multiple players that were at LSU at one point in their career: left tackle Lance Heard, wide receiver Nic Anderson and defensive tackle Ahmad Breaux. There is one crossover we have not mentioned this week…

LSU has a familiar face leading their offensive line, that is coach Eric Wolford. Coach Wolford could not revive the big blue wall during his two stints in Lexington. LSU has a lot of talent on the offensive line, left tackle Jordan Seaton is one of the top NFL Draft prospects at his position. However, that unit has had some rough outings this season (shocking) and the interior offensive line is gettable; Kentucky's defensive line has to win the line of scrimmage and get pressure on quarterback Sam Leavitt.

Another area of the game we have yet to mention is how good Kentucky has been in the "middle 8", these are the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. Kentucky leads the country in points per drive on offense in the middle 8 and this has to continue in this game. The defense for the Wildcats have performed much better in the middle 8 as well. You can look at the graph of full FBS teams below, this is something to watch closely on Saturday.

Kentucky just has to play their style of football to win this game, granted they have to do it almost flawlessly to come away with a massive victory. Kentucky has to win the turnover margin, which is something they have consistently done this season. The defense has been very opportunistic and the Wildcats have done a phenomenal job at staying on schedule offensively. Kentucky can utilize their unique offensive scheme to move the football and score points, but the Wildcats have to create explosives on this Blake Baker defense that allows explosives.

Kentucky has done really well on a few areas defensively. The Wildcats rank 6th in the SEC in EPA per dropback allowed and explosive play rate allowed. Kentucky also ranks 2nd in the conference in turnover forced percentage. If Kentucky can limit explosives for the Tigers and create explosives on offense, they will be in a great position to win this football game.

It is worth noting that Kentucky is 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings against top ten teams, and they have won three of those games outright as underdogs. LSU is not at full strength, down both players that had the honor of wearing the legendary number 7 in the Tigers program. Kentucky is closer to full strength as the starting 22 is healthy and ready to go for this one. This is a game that I originally predicted a loss for the Wildcats, but I think Kentucky has a ton of momentum right now and will benefit from an incredible atmosphere at Kroger Field.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, LSU 28

This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Kentucky vs #10 LSU: Final Thoughts and Prediction

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