USC vs Penn State Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, October 10

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The USC Trojans take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Penn State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -122. The total is set at 54.5 points.

Here’s my USC vs. Penn State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10, 2026.

My Penn State vs. USC best bet is on the Trojans to win straight up. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

USC vs Penn State Odds

• USC vs Penn State point spread: Penn State -1.5 (-112), USC +1.5 (-108)
• USC vs Penn State over/under: 54.5 (-112o / -108u)
• USC vs Penn State moneyline: USC +102, Penn State -122

USC got off to a phenomenal start in head coach Lincoln Riley’s fifth year at the helm, winning its first four matchups of the season in convincing fashion behind the stellar play of its senior QB Jayden Maiava.

The Hawaiian has been lighting it up for this Trojan offense, throwing for 1,744 yards with 15 passing TDs (second and third in the country, respectively).

Behind that quarterback production, USC has been scoring nearly 38 points per game.

In addition to its elite Air Raid attack, sophomore RB King Miller has been spectacular, racking up nearly 500 yards on the ground.

While the efficiency of this Trojan offense has been largely impressive, it’s the defensive unit that’s struggled to maintain any form of consistent play over the last several weeks.

USC is allowing opposing offenses to score 25.5 points per game, and that’s despite playing an extremely weak schedule.

Though in spite of the frequent vulnerability that’s plagued this Trojans’ defense up to this point, Riley’s bunch has also proven that it can come up clutch in big moments.

In Week 5 versus Washington, the Trojans erased an 11-point second-half deficit behind a stout defensive effort that prevented a Demond Williams Jr.-led Husky offense from scoring any points over the final 28 minutes of the game.

If USC can continue to dominate on the offensive side of the football whilst also relying on its defense to step up with the game on the line, the Trojans have a great chance of leaving “Happy Valley” with a huge Big Ten victory.

Following an impressive 3-0 start to Matt Campbell’s first year as Penn State head coach, there’s been quite a rapid decline for the Nittany Lions over the last two weeks of play.

After winning its first three contests by an average victory margin of 35 points per game, Campbell’s bunch dropped its first game of the season to Wisconsin in Week 4 as a double-digit favorite at home.

While the Nittany Lions had an excellent chance to bounce back as a slight favorite on the road this past Friday versus Northwestern, the Wildcats dominated for all four quarters, ultimately prevailing by 31 points.

Penn State will have another big opportunity to reverse its fortune against USC, but that will require a spectacular effort from its offense, a unit led by Iowa State transfer QB Rocco Becht.

The senior followed Campbell from Iowa State for his final year of eligibility — a decision that has yet to make an immediate impact.

While Becht has recorded a relatively impressive 1,108 passing yards over the team’s first five games, he’s been quite inconsistent in Big Ten play, evident through a 53.6 QBR.

Penn State’s pass attack under Becht has regressed to 85th in adjusted EPA/play during conference play, making it very difficult for it to play from behind.

Campbell’s offense has also struggled to run the football, with RB James Peoples recording just 212 yards.

Campbell’s defensive unit has also shown sizable vulnerability, particularly at the line of scrimmage, with the Nittany Lions allowing a whopping 400 rushing yards in Week 5’s blowout loss.

This isn’t very promising heading into a matchup with an elite USC rushing attack led by Miller, who has been running all over opposing defenses.

After surrendering 34 points to Northwestern, the Nittany Lions’ defense will have by far its toughest challenge to date.

While Penn State’s notorious “whiteout” has resulted in some huge home victories over the last decade-plus, the stadium atmosphere has clearly played a far weaker role in 2026.

Though Penn State’s -1.5-point line is somewhat understandable given how historically reliable it has been playing in University Park, the Trojans boast a far superior offense as Maiava continues to play at an extremely high level.

There are undoubtedly holes in this USC defense that could use some major improvement, but I have little faith in Becht’s ability to rise to the occasion.

While I’m expecting a very closely contested matchup that could very well come down to the wire, I feel confident backing the Trojans at +105 in a game I expect Penn State to struggle to contain Maiava in the pocket, in addition to a Miller-led Trojan rush attack.

Pick: USC ML +102

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