College football Week 7 picks, odds: Best bets for BYU-Notre Dame, weekend's games

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The two best games of Saturday night are both out West, and the market has spent the week taking points off the scoreboard in each of them.

Oregon is a seven-point favorite at home against Nebraska without knowing who will start at quarterback, and the total has fallen six points since the lookahead number went up. No. 2 Notre Dame goes to Provo as a 10.5-point favorite against No. 8 BYU, and that total has slid from 48.5 to 46.5 on the idea that two great defenses and two slow offenses can only produce a rock fight.

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I like a bet on the total in each game.

Nebraska at Oregon (-7.5, 52.5)

Dante Moore is out for the second straight week with the concussion he suffered against USC on Sept. 26, and head coach Dan Lanning hasn't named a starter for Saturday.

Dylan Raiola spent two seasons at Nebraska and threw for 3,819 yards and 31 touchdowns there, and he came off the bench to throw for 289 and two scores when Moore went down at USC. Then, Raiola made his first start last week against UCLA and completed six passes for 43 yards with two interceptions before Lanning went to third-stringer Brock Thomas in the fourth quarter. Oregon turned it over seven times and lost 17-15 after getting stopped on a 2-point conversion that would have tied it. "Of course, it's going to be an emotional game for Dylan, being the place he came from," Lanning said this week.

The over has a real case, and I want to give it its due. Oregon's first four games all cleared this number (61, 70, 84 and 68), and Nebraska has played in three that finished at 63 or higher. Thomas threw for 156 yards and a touchdown in relief against UCLA, and if Raiola walks into this game and plays like he did at USC, the Ducks have the talent to put up 35 on anybody.

However, the Oregon offense was sliding before the QB carousel started. Against FBS teams, the Ducks are producing 2.3 points per drive with a 38% success rate, and only nine offenses in the country have been marked down more in our ratings since the season started — and most of that was with Moore taking the snaps. That's the unit that has to carry its end of a 52.5 total, against a Nebraska defense that ranks No. 30 on our board and hasn't given up more than 23 points to an FBS team all season.

Nebraska's offense isn't built to bail out the over, either. QB Anthony Colandrea was 25-of-43 passing against Indiana and sacked five times, and our deserved-points model says the 5-1 Huskers have earned every point of their margin. That tells me this is a good, sturdy team rather than an explosive one.

We make it closer to a 45-point game, especially with the weather a non-factor (mid-50s and calm at an 8 p.m. local kick). The two books that hung a lookahead number before the UCLA game had this Oregon -12.5 with a total of 58.5, and the full market opened Sunday night at Oregon -7 and 52.5 — it's been 52.5 almost everywhere since. A team that turned it over seven times a week ago has to pick a quarterback by Saturday, and I don't need to know which one it chooses to like the under.

Bet: Under 52.5 (-109)

No. 2 Notre Dame (-10.5, 46.5) at No. 8 BYU

Two unbeatens meet on Provo on a Saturday night. The under is the easy read here, and I understand why the number has been walking down all week: 48.5 on the lookahead, 47.5 when the full market posted Sunday night and 46.5 by Tuesday afternoon.

BYU plays slower than all but three teams on our board, Notre Dame ranks No. 95 in tempo, we have both defenses in the top eight in the country (Notre Dame No. 5, BYU No. 8) and BYU's last two games were a 17-10 win at TCU and a 24-10 win over Iowa State.

The Cougars are also without LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, and right tackle Andrew Gentry. My issue with the under is Notre Dame's offense, which this number isn't treating like the No. 2 unit on our board. The Irish have scored at least 27 in every game, and against FBS teams they're scoring almost four points per drive with a 55% success rate and 7.1 yards per play. A great defense slows that down, but it doesn't take it down to 20 points.

BYU's side of it is better than the last two games look, and against FBS teams, BYU is gaining 7.3 YPP, a hair better than Notre Dame, which is a lot of offense to put in a game the market is pricing like a punting contest. Our projection lands at Notre Dame 31, BYU 19, a 50-point game, and that's after accounting for Martin and after our deserved-points model knocks about three points a game off Notre Dame's scoreboard margin, most of it from the 52-0 win over Rice.

Bet the Notre-Dame BYU over at sportsbooks

Bill Connelly's SP+ gets to the over a different way, with a closer game at 28-24, but it gets there. With a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff and a dry, calm forecast, there's nothing in the conditions to help the under. If Notre Dame gets the 31 points we have it scoring, BYU needs 16 to cash this, and it found 24 against Iowa State while leaving two touchdowns on the field.

Bet: Over 46.5 (-109)

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