Big Ten Football: Best bets for Indiana-Ohio State, Michigan-Penn State, more
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For the first time in a month, the Big Ten was not kind to us. While we correctly identified Purdue covering (and then some) against Minnesota, and Ohio State vs. Maryland hitting the over, we also had arguably our worst miss of the season: the over in the Oregon vs. UCLA game. On the week, we went just 3-5. Fortunately, we’ve built up some goodwill so we’re still above .500 at 40-34-1 on the year.
Let’s get back on track. In Week 7, we get arguably the game of the year in the Big Ten as Ohio State travels to Bloomington to face Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers. Elsewhere, Michigan and Penn State look to halt losing streaks, while UCLA figures it out sans-Nico Iamaleava. It should be a great weekend of football.
As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Washington at Purdue (-3.5), O/U 51.5, 8 p.m. ET Friday
It’s amazing how 3-3 can feel so different for two separate teams. Washington is 3-3 and has had an abject disaster of a season, whereas Purdue is 3-3 and on cloud nine. The Boilermakers are as hot as any team right now and the spread reflects that, as it has moved from 1.5 to 3.5 in Purdue’s favor. While Purdue is just 3-3 ATS this season, Washington is a putrid 1-5, so I’ll go with Purdue to keep the good times rolling.
The pick: Purdue -3.5
Ohio State (-3.5) at Indiana, O/U 51.5, Noon ET Saturday
According to The Action Network, 79 percent of all bets in this matchup are on the Buckeyes, and the spread has followed. It’s not often the road team is a 3.5-point favorite in a top-five matchup. While I’m tempted by the under as last season’s Big Ten Championship was a defensive slugfest, I have to unfortunately go with Ohio State here. It helps that the Buckeyes are 4-2 ATS while Indiana is just 1-5.
The pick: Ohio State -3.5
Northwestern (-7.5) at Michigan State, O/U 48.5, Noon ET
This is a tough matchup to pick. Northwestern nearly always hits the over (4-0-1) while Michigan State often goes under (2-4). The Wildcats have been phenomenal ATS at 4-1, which is tempting. However, despite more than three-quarters of all bets being on Northwestern, the spread has dropped from 10 down to 7.5. I don’t love it, but I’m taking the Spartans to bounce back after a shocking loss last week.
The pick: Michigan State +7.5
Rutgers at Maryland (-4.5), O/U 57.5, 12:30 p.m. ET
Only true college football junkies are watching this game. Both teams are very average against the spread — Rutgers is 2-3 and Maryland is 3-3 — but both teams are excellent at hitting the over, as Rutgers is 4-1 and Maryland is 5-1. In the past five matchups between these teams, only once have they combined to score less than 48 points; 57.5 is a lofty total, but both these teams play very little defense.
The pick: Over 57.5
Penn State at Michigan (-6.5), O/U 42.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
I’ve been burned so many times this season picking Michigan, but Penn State has been equally as disappointing. Both teams are around .500 ATS, but both are prone to go under the total — Michigan is 1-4 against the total while Penn State is 2-3-1 overall and 0-1-1 on the road. Given that Michigan’s coaching staff appears stubborn towards changing the offensive scheme or making a change at quarterback, I expect this game to be ugly and low-scoring.
The pick: Under 42.5
Wisconsin at UCLA (-2.5), O/U 42.5, 7:30 p.m. ET
When Iamaleava’s season-ending injury was announced, this spread surprisingly shifted in UCLA’s favor up to 4. Since then, it has sharply corrected in Wisconsin’s favor as it is now back to UCLA -2.5 despite 77 percent of the general public betting on UCLA. There’s big money on Wisconsin in this matchup, which could portend a Badgers upset. This game has UCLA let-down written all over it after a huge win over Oregon last week.
The pick: Wisconsin +2.5
Nebraska at Oregon (-7.5), O/U 52.5, 11 p.m. ET
Dylan Raiola hosts his former team in Eugene this weekend in what should be one of the most fascinating games of the slate. Raiola was benched following a blizzard of turnovers against UCLA — will he even get the chance at revenge against the Cornhuskers? The spread has understandably shifted rapidly, as it dropped from 22 down to 7.5 following last week’s debacle. Based purely on vibes, it feels to me like Nebraska gave Indiana its best shot. I expect Dan Lanning and the Oregon coaching staff to figure some things out throughout the week this week.
The pick: Oregon -7.5
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