Northwestern at Michigan State: Lock of the Week

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Last Week: Illinois Team Total Over 23.5 Points (Correct)

Overall Record: 3-3

For the second week in a row, the Lock of the Week was Michigan State’s opponent going over 23.5 team total points.

The Fighting Illini beat that mark by two touchdowns, finishing with 38 points in their 38-37 overtime victory over Michigan State.

This second straight win has brought us back from the dead, but there’s no time to pop the champagne just yet. All we’ve done is get back to .500 on the year, and we had to take a low bet last week to do so.

Now that we have a winning streak, the first of the season, under our belts, we’re ready to keep it rolling into a third consecutive week.

Northwestern at Michigan State: Week 7

In the Chiles-Fitzgerald Bowl, revenge fills the air like Avengers: Endgame.

In one corner stands the Spartans’ new head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, returning to his alma mater, where he played for four years and coached for 17.

Fitzgerald was let go by Northwestern after allegations emerged, but ultimately, nothing came down on him. After taking a few years off from coaching college football, Fitzgerald returned to help bring the Spartans’ football program back to the relevance it had when he was coaching the Wildcats.

In the other corner stands Michigan State’s former quarterback, Aidan Chiles, who was benched for the final four games of last season and had to watch as his starting role was handed over to a redshirt freshman who truly outproduced him in that short time.

Now Chiles has vengeance oozing out of every pore and has parlayed his benching and new home into a tremendous start to the season. He’s playing so well that he’s helped get Northwestern back into the Top 25 for the first time since Fitzgerald was coaching the Wildcats.

Now the two square off at Spartan Stadium. Despite all the news outlets harping on these storylines, I’m just here to preface the game with them.

The real factor in this game is the injuries.

Michigan State’s slew of injuries includes its top four cornerbacks, top two linebackers and starting left tackle. All have been deemed out for Saturday’s matchup.

My best bets favored Chiles in both passing and rushing, and alluded to the fact that Michigan State could be down a lot of players and need to throw.

All of those factors play a major role in this week’s Lock of the Week. Michigan State will be shorthanded and could be passing a lot to catch up. Northwestern relies on its run game, which happens to play into Michigan State’s strength on defense: stopping the run.

That means we might see more passes this weekend than anyone is expecting.

Lock of the Week

Northwestern Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-145)

Michigan State’s opponents have scored 27 or more points in each of the last four games, with Notre Dame’s 27 being the only total below 31. The Spartans have allowed 31 or more in each of the last three games and will have a hard time stopping an offense that is rolling, especially with so many key defensive players sidelined.

It could get ugly. I’ll take Northwestern’s team total over 27.5 points.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos