Biggest 24-team College Football Playoff issue no one is talking about

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TheCFB landscape could be headed for a major shake-up as the College Football Playoff moves closer to a deal to expand to 24 teams in 2027, but the proposed change could create unintended consequences that fundamentally alter the sport.

College athletics is terrible at seeing problems around the corner. The 24-team playoff is the latest example.

A lot of schools that supported this will regret it because in the end it won’t be about the playoff or even the now diminished regular season.

Notre Dame now has the best situation in all of football – almost 100 percent guarantee to make the playoff, freedom to schedule as it wishes, maximization of its own media value.

To use the Big Ten as an example, why wouldn’t Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State follow? If you can, be independent. That’s the future.

The 18-team Big Ten is bloated, distant and winning it carries little intrinsic or competitive value for the biggest brands.

Those three schools can create a scheduling agreement that would increase their media revenue 2-3x and give the same control over everything. No sharing money. No forced TV times. Eight or even nine home games. Select your own schedule.

Staying in the Big Ten now makes little and perhaps no economic sense. And yes, I do understand the league-wide research grants and so on, but there is always a way around everything.

In terms of athletics, for those schools (and maybe a few more) it’s lost revenue for the sake of loyalty and we know how that usually gets settled.

All these middle and lower schools — even in the P2 — that supported this because they’ll get in the "participation playoff" with an 8-4 record are facing significant risk in the future.

There will come a day when they will now get a share of the Ohio State-Michigan windfall; only Ohio State and Michigan will.

Maybe not tomorrow, but I believe a 24-team playoff makes it closer than ever.

Thoughts?

— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) October 16, 2026

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While expansion promises to give more programs an opportunity to compete for a national championship, one major concern has received less attention: the possibility that powerhouse programs could abandon their conferences altogether. If the expanded playoff changes the financial and competitive incentives of college football, some of the sport’s biggest brands may decide that conference membership is no longer worth the cost.

Could College Football’s biggest programs go independent?

Notre Dame’s independent status provides a potential blueprint for other major programs seeking greater control over their schedules and media rights.

Without traditional conference obligations, Notre Dame can negotiate its own scheduling arrangements and pursue media opportunities that suit its interests. An expanded 24-team playoff could make that model increasingly attractive to other national powers.

Programs such as Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State could theoretically explore similar arrangements if they believed independence would maximize their revenue and preserve a viable path to the postseason.

Leaving the Big Ten would be an enormous decision, given the conference’s media contracts, rivalries and financial resources. However, if schools could secure lucrative independent media deals while maintaining access to high-profile opponents, the economics of conference membership could look very different.

The expanded playoff could therefore produce an unexpected outcome: rather than strengthening conferences, it could encourage their most valuable members to pursue greater independence.

Of course, leaving a conference would carry substantial risks, including losing shared media revenue and established scheduling arrangements. Independence would not automatically guarantee a playoff berth.

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Smaller programs could regret supporting expansion

The potential consequences extend beyond the sport’s biggest brands.

Many lower- and middle-tier programs could support expansion because a 24-team field would seemingly improve their chances of reaching the postseason. More available spots would create additional opportunities for teams that might otherwise be excluded from the national championship conversation.

However, if major programs gain greater scheduling freedom and use their financial advantages to strengthen their playoff résumés, smaller schools could find themselves facing an even steeper climb.

An expanded field does not necessarily guarantee broader access if the sport’s power dynamics shift in favor of its richest programs.

Ultimately, the biggest question surrounding a 24-team College Football Playoff may not be how many teams get in, but how expansion reshapes the structure of college football itself. If conference realignment accelerates once again, the consequences could extend far beyond the playoff bracket.

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