Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Indiana
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College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
Following a National Championship in 2024, Ohio State was knocked off the pedestal by Indiana in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game, as the Hoosiers then went on to secure a national title of their own. Ryan Day will now be seeking some revenge over Curt Cignetti, traveling to Bloomington for a rematch against the Hoosiers.
While both teams once again find themselves ranked among the nation’s best, the two sides look very different from the last time they met. Can Jeremiah Smith lead Ohio State to victory, or will Cignetti get the best of Day once again?
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 28.2 (Rank: 3)
- Proj. W-L: 10.1-2.6
- Win Out %: 14.9
- 6 Wins %: 100
- Win Conf. %: 44.5
- CFP %: 76.9
- Make NC %: 22.7
- Win NC %: 12.4
Indiana
- FPI: 25.8 (Rank: 6)
- Proj. W-L: 11.4-1.4
- Win Out %: 18.4
- 6 Wins %: 100
- Win Conf. %: 41.4
- CFP %: 88.1
- Make NC %: 20.8
- Win NC %: 9.9
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 51.4%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 1 (up 1 from last week)
- Rating: 29.5
- Offense: 41.3 (1st)
- Defense: 11.7 (1st)
- Special Teams: -0.2 (102nd)
Indiana
- Rank: No. 5 (down 2 from last week)
- Rating: 26.7
- Offense: 39.3 (7th)
- Defense: 12.8 (4th)
- Special Teams: 0.2 (38th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 0.2 points
- Win Probability: 51%
- Projected Score (rounded): 26-26 [26.4-26.2 unrounded]
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 94.69 (3rd)
- Indiana: 91.70 (6th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 25.77 (5th)
- Indiana: 24.53 (6th)
- Matchup Prediction: Indiana will beat Ohio State by 1.7 at home (55% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 9.00 (4th)
- Offense: 69.05 (4th)
- Defense: 43.68 (1st)
- Indiana: 9.06 (3rd)
- Offense: 66.92 (8th)
- Defense: 42.44 (2nd)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 25 (54% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
| Rank | Metric | Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 0.42 | EPA/Pass | 0.08 | 76th |
| 53rd | 0.07 | EPA/Rush | -0.09 | 24th |
| 4th | 65.2% | Available Yards % | 37.5% | 23rd |
| 17th | Own 32 | Starting Field Position | Own 25 | 6th |
| 9th | 0.23 | Early Downs EPA/Play | 0.01 | 48th |
| 21st | 52.3% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 37.5% | 25th |
| 19th | 6.15 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.66 | 31st |
| Rank | Metric | Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 0.46 | EPA/Pass | -0.19 | 7th |
| 19th | 0.16 | EPA/Rush | -0.12 | 15th |
| 13th | 60.1% | Available Yards % | 28.3% | 3rd |
| 23rd | Own 32 | Starting Field Position | Own 27 | 30th |
| 1st | 0.29 | Early Downs EPA/Play | -0.14 | 7th |
| 55th | 46.7% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 36.6% | 22nd |
| 33rd | 6.40 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.42 | 45th |
Prior Meetings
Ohio State owns the all-time series against Indiana 80-13-5, but that doesn’t really tell the story of this current version of the Hoosiers under Curt Cignetti.
Cignetti lost his first battle with the Buckeyes, 38-15 in Columbus in 2024, but he returned the favor in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game with a 13-10 win, snapping a string of 30 straight victories for Ohio State over Indiana.
You’d have to go back to 1988 to find the most recent Indiana win over Ohio State in Bloomington, when Bill Mallory’s Hoosiers knocked off John Cooper’s Buckeyes, 41-7. It was the first time Indiana had defeated Ohio State in back-to-back games since 1904, having also defeated the Buckeyes 31-10 in Columbus in 1987.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
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