CFB Week 7 prediction: What to expect as Michigan and Penn State face off

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The seventh week of college football kicks off from Big Ten country as a pair of conference blue bloods in Michigan and Penn State square off to save their seasons.

Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor feels less like a traditional rivalry and more like two teams trying not to fall further behind. Michigan and Penn State both sit winless in Big Ten play, and the pressure is real. Here’s what you need to know.

So, can Michigan move the ball?

Defensively, the Wolverines have been pretty reliable this season. Overall, they’re allowing just 241 yards per game to opponents and surrender under 3 yards per carry. Opponents convert just a third of their third down attempts, one of the main reasons Michigan is still in most of these games.

The offense is a different story. Bryce Underwood leads the nation’s 116th passing attack and the country’s 102nd scoring offense. He adds needed production on the ground, but the Wolverines just keep giving the football away.

Nine turnovers in five games have left them near the bottom of the country (122nd) in turnover margin. They’re also struggling to finish drives and create chunk plays. After a bye week, the hope is they’ve cleaned some of that up. They’ll need to.

Penn State needs to get more physical

The Nittany Lions looked sharp in non-conference play but have mostly gone quiet since. Their biggest issue right now is the run game.

Over the last two weeks they’ve managed just 58 rushing yards per game combined. That puts everything on Rocco Becht, who’s been productive overall (11 TDs and only 3 picks) but is seeing heavier pressure in Big Ten games.

Penn State’s defense still plays well against the pass and can force turnovers. The problem is finishing. They’re converting red-zone trips into touchdowns at a little better than a 50 percent clip, which isn’t enough when you’re already struggling to move the ball consistently on the ground.

Who wins?

This one should be tight and mostly ugly. Michigan’s defense is the best unit on the field, and playing at home helps. Penn State simply hasn’t shown it can run the ball against decent fronts lately, and that makes everything harder for Becht. 

The Wolverines still have to protect the football better than they have, but the edge goes to the home team in a low-scoring grind. Expect long drives, a few critical stops, and not many big plays.

The Big Lead prediction: Michigan 20, Penn State 13

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