Florida vs Texas Prediction, Odds, Start Time: NCAAF Expert Picks for Week 7

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The Florida Gators take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

Texas is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. Florida, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +330 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.

Here’s my Florida vs. Texas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.

My Texas vs. Florida best bet is on the Longhorns to cover the spread at half. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, also download our Action Network app in order to get the latest picks and College Football analysis.

Florida vs Texas Odds, Line, Spread

• Florida vs Texas Spread: Texas -11.5, Florida +11.5
• Florida vs Texas Over/Under: 51.5 Total Points
• Florida vs Texas Moneyline: Florida ML +340, Texas ML -450

It has been a very up-and-down campaign for the Gators in former Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall’s first season in Gainesville after leading the Green Wave to the College Football Playoff last season.

Florida prevailed in its first four games under Sumrall, notably taking out Auburn on the road, followed by a dominant blowout victory over then-top-five Ole Miss by a whopping 24-point margin.

Now, the Gators have dropped consecutive games to Missouri and South Carolina and must head on the road to Austin to face a Longhorn bunch that will also be highly motivated after a disappointing Week 6 loss to rival Oklahoma.

Despite Florida’s back-to-back losses, quarterback Aaron Philo has largely impressed in his first season in Gainesville after spending his first two years at Georgia Tech.

Philo’s 1,341 passing yards heading into Week 7 rank 40th in college football, with the former Yellow Jacket also ranking 33rd with a QBR of 74.1.

The Gators also boast an elite rushing attack led by running back Jadan Baugh, whose 12 rushing touchdowns lead all of college football after the first six weeks of action.

Florida’s offense sits 12th in the nation in points scored, averaging a whopping 41.7 points per game over its first six games despite scoring just 36 points over its last two contests.

While there’s no doubt what Sumrall’s offense is capable of offensively, the defense has glaring holes that were on full display against LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina. In fact, the Gamecocks scored nearly 40 points on Florida’s defense on the road.

The Gators have allowed their opponents to score nearly 30 PPG on the season thus far, which should definitely be problematic against an Arch Manning-led Texas offense that will undoubtedly give this defense its toughest challenge of the season.

Despite dropping its first game of the season in devastating fashion on Saturday, the Longhorns are still receiving sizable respect in betting markets. Texas currently stands as a double-digit favorite to take down Florida in Week 7.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered his final season in Austin as one of the Heisman Trophy favorites but has been quite inconsistent over the Longhorns’ first six games.

While the senior has thrown for 1,122 passing yards and 10 touchdowns, Manning has been very susceptible to turning the ball over, already throwing five interceptions thus far.

Arch also hasn’t been quite as dominant as he had been rushing the football in previous seasons. He has yet to record a touchdown with his legs despite his dual-threat ability being a key to his game.

Although Manning has had an up-and-down 2026 campaign, the Longhorns’ offensive unit has still thrived for the most part due to it boasting versatile playmakers all over the field.

Auburn transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman leads an impressive Texas receiving corps with 318 yards and five touchdowns, and the WR room also has stars in Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V.

Former NC State running back Hollywood Smothers paces an elite Longhorn rushing attack with 237 yards to go with two rushing touchdowns. He plays alongside Arizona State transfer Raleek Brown, who has recorded four of Texas’ six rushing touchdowns this season.

The Longhorns are even better on the other side of the ball after adding defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Texas’ defense has allowed opponents to score just 16 points per game on the season thus far, ranking 21st in the nation.

The front seven has been remarkably impressive over the first six games of the season, with EDGE Colin Simmons leading the nation with 9.5 sacks. The Horns’ 18 total sacks also rank inside the top 10 in the country.

Texas has allowed opposing offenses less than 265 yards of total offense per game and boasts an elite red-zone touchdown rate of just 33%, which is tied for second nationally.

While the Longhorns undoubtedly have one of the top defenses in all of college football, it has forced just five turnovers in six games, which is certainly an area for improvement heading into a loaded SEC schedule.

Florida and Texas will duke it out on Saturday afternoon in what definitely sets up to be one of the best matchups on the Week 7 slate.

While the Gators boast an unbelievably impressive offense that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian won’t take lightly, their loss to South Carolina revealed some holes.

From a betting perspective, I like backing the Longhorns to cover the -6.5 first-half spread in what I expect to be a very quick start for a highly motivated Texas squad.

This Texas defense will be far and away Florida’s toughest challenge to date, and I’m inclined to back Sarkisian’s bunch to get off to a red-hot start over the game’s first 30 minutes.

Pick: Texas 1H -6.5

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