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As quickly as it came, the 2025 college football regular season has come to a close, and before one of the final playoff rankings are released tomorrow, we wanted to take a look at the teams that are, or are perceived to be, on the bubble of making the second 12-team college football playoffs. We're going to look at Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU and Ole Miss and talk through what's working in their favor and what's working against their final push to the playoffs. Let's first take a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide who are sitting at 10-2 on the season, ranked 10th by the playoff committee and are gearing up to face Georgia in the SEC Championship game. 

What's Working In Their Favor?

Not a lot of teams ranked in the current top 12 have had to face a road to the playoffs like Alabama has had to endure. The Crimson Tide played Georgia on the road, Vanderbilt at home, Missouri on the road and Tennessee at home consecutively. Then they had a break playing a reeling South Carolina team on the road, LSU at home who had just fired their head coach and Oklahoma at home. The wrapped up the regular season in the Iron Bowl on the road and are now gearing up for their SEC Championship matchup against Georgia in a rematch. 

Alabama currently ranks 7th in the FEI, 7th in the Sagarin and 6th in the ESPN football power index. They have the No. 8 strength of record and No. 11 strength of schedule according to ESPN and have one of the more impressive wins of this college football season going into Athens and beating Georgia at home and were the first team to beat the Bulldogs at home since 2019. This is one of the more battle-tested teams in the hunt for the playoffs, especially compared to some of the other teams on the bubble. 

What's Working Against Them?

There are two major things working against the Crimson Tide in their final push to the playoffs. First, their season opening loss to Florida State is a major blemish. The Seminoles dominated the Tide from start to finish in that matchup and looked to have put their woeful 2-10 regular season behind them from 2024. Unfortunately for Seminole fans and many Alabama fans, the Florida State of 2024 reared it's ugly head. After starting the season 3-0 including their home win over Alabama, they dropped seven of their last nine games and are now 5-7 and not bowl eligible. The second issue working against Bama is their performance against some of the teams on their schedule.

Yes, their win against Georgia in Athens was impressive, but I'll argue that was the last impressive thing they did this season. They scored 27 points against a Missouri team that's no longer ranked, 29 in an ugly road win over South Carolina (the second worst team in the conference), 20 points against LSU at home (a team that just fired their head coach and offensive coordinator) and scored 27 points in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Has their schedule been tough and has Alabama had one of the tougher paths to the Top 10? Yes. Have they looked like a championship caliber, or even playoff caliber, team in November? No. 

My Thoughts: If Alabama wins the SEC Championship, they're in regardless so that won't be a part of this discussion. The conversation is around if they lose the SEC Championship game and their odds of making the playoffs. If the Crimson Tide lose this weekend to Georgia, I don't think they deserve a spot in the playoffs. Some of that will depend on what happens with BYU in the Big 12 Championship game. If the Cougars lose, I think Alabama should in over BYU even if the Tide loses to Georgia in a rematch. Above all else, Alabama just hasn't been impressive down the stretch.

They rank 26th in the country in points per game (33.3) and a lot of that is bolstered by what they did to Wisconsin, Eastern Illinois, and Louisiana Monroe. Outside of those three games, Alabama scored over 30 points once against Tennessee at home. They rank 103rd in the country in rushing yards per game and struggled to establish a ground attack against any team not named Eastern Illinois and Louisiana Monroe.  

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