Analyst predicts Michigan and Ohio State will leave Big Ten with 24-team playoff
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A 24-team College Football Playoff starting as soon as next season has been all but confirmed, and while there’s been no shortage of criticism for all the obvious reasons, there will undoubtedly be plenty of unintended consequences, too, and ESPN’s Dan Wetzel is predicting a massive one.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has been the primary driving force behind the College Football Playoff expansion push, but Wetzel thinks that the expanded field will have an unintended consequence for his conference and the SEC that will lead each to regret pushing for the expansion.
“College athletics is terrible at seeing problems around the corner. The 24-team playoff is the latest example,” Wetzel wrote on X. “A lot of schools that supported this will regret it because in the end it won’t be about the playoff or even the now diminished regular season.
Wetzel argued that Notre Dame will be the ultimate winner of the increased field, and that other top programs will follow suit.
“Notre Dame now has the best situation in all of football – almost 100 percent guarantee to make the playoff, freedom to schedule as it wishes, maximization of its own media value.
“To use the Big Ten as an example, why wouldn’t Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State follow? If you can, be independent. That’s the future,” he continued. “The 18-team Big Ten is bloated, distant, and winning it carries little intrinsic or competitive value for the biggest brands.
Those three schools can create a scheduling agreement that would increase their media revenue 2-3x and give the same control over everything. No sharing money. No forced TV times. Eight or even nine home games. Select your own schedule. Staying in the Big Ten now makes little and perhaps no economic sense. And yes, I do understand the league-wide research grants and so on, but there is always a way around everything. In terms of athletics, for those schools (and maybe a few more) it’s lost revenue for the sake of loyalty and we know how that usually gets settled.”
Michigan has already threatened to leave the Big Ten, as recently as last November. Once it stops making financial sense, why would the top dogs in the SEC and Big Ten stay?
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