Predicting where Indiana football will land in final CFP bracket
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BLOOMINGTON — Indiana football won’t have much to worry about when the College Football Playoff committee releases its final set of rankings on Sunday, Dec. 7.
The No. 2 Hoosiers (12-0) are on the opposite end of the bracket from where they were last year as a bubble team. They could even lock up the top overall seed by beating Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
Here’s our prediction for where IU will end up in the field:
Indiana football will get first-round bye in the College Football Playoff
Cignetti told reporters on Sunday, Nov. 30 that he didn’t expect his team to be handed anything from the CFP committee without earning it. The statement came in response to a question about whether or not Ohio State and Indiana were deserving of byes regardless of which team wins the conference championship.
“I don’t expect any handouts,” Cignetti said. “We’ve earned everything up to this point and we’ve got to earn it on Saturday.”
Make no mistake, the Hoosiers have already earned a much-deserved bye to the quarterfinals. Their metrics — the key statistics the committee uses to measure success — likely mirror the high marks they had last year and they built an impeachable resume.
They had a perfect regular season, multiple victories over top 10 opponents and three road wins that came in some of the tougher environments in the FBS.
Whether IU hoists a trophy on Saturday night or not, they will be going straight to the quarterfinals.
Indiana football gets the No. 3 seed in this year’s CFP
Forget the history between these two teams — Indiana has dropped 30 straight to OSU — it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Hoosiers punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl this weekend. The winner of the game is guaranteed a spot “The Granddaddy of Them All” as the Big Ten’s top-ranked team.
This one should be a low-scoring affair that goes down to the wire, unlike the 2024 game between the teams.
While Indiana has faced plenty of adversity away from Memorial Stadium this season, it’s hard to ignore how dominant Ohio State’s defense has been.
The Buckeyes don’t produce the kind of havoc numbers (sacks, tackles for loss and turnovers) the Hoosiers are known for, but they just ground opposing teams and limit explosive plays better than anyone in the country.
That gives them a slight advantage in a matchup where it’s hard to find much of any separation between the teams and with the CFP tweaking the rules to blunt the impact of a loss to top competition, Indiana should only drop one spot.
Indiana football will face Alabama in the Cotton Bowl
With the top-ranked SEC or Big 12 team locked into the Sugar Bowl, Indiana heads to the Cotton Bowl since it’s the quarterfinal in the closest proximity to Bloomington.
It’s opponent in this scenario would be the winner of the matchup between the No. 6 and No. 11 seeds.
Here’s how the Hoosiers get Alabama:
- The Tide lose a rematch against Georgia in the SEC title game, but the committee doesn’t punish them for losing the SEC championship. It helps that Alabama has a win over a Vanderbilt team that’s lurking on the bubble.
- Ole Miss will drop in the rankings in the wake of Lane Kiffin’s departure. The committee weighs those variables — it’s like having an injured player — and make Texas A&M the No. 6 team in the final rankings.
- Alabama upsets Texas A&M in the first round of the playoffs.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Indiana football CFP bracket predictions. Where Hoosiers could land
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