College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction & Odds to Make the CFP – Championship Week
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The College Football Playoff selection committee’s weekly rankings finally matter.
Their Tuesday night release should be a significant precursor to the final Playoff field. Up until now, these shows have served no purpose other than boosting ESPN’s ratings.
At this point, though, they can educate us as to what the 2025 postseason will look like.
My projection for the Playoff bracket features an SEC championship upset…
College Football Playoff bracket prediction
- 5) Georgia vs. 12) North Texas
- 8) Mississippi vs. 9) Oklahoma
- 6) Texas A&M vs. 11) Virginia
- 7) Oregon vs. 10) Notre Dame
- BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Indiana, 3) Alabama, 4) Texas Tech
CFP Bracket analysis
Thanks to Texas A&M losing at Texas, it is easy to see Ohio State and Indiana staying in the top two seeds of the Playoff, no matter the result of the Big Ten title game.
Those are the only two teams in the country to reach 12-0. They should be rewarded for it.
But how could Alabama jump to No. 3 when a week ago the Tide were No. 10 in the rankings? By winning the SEC championship and strengthening an already unimpeachable argument.
Alabama may have the best Playoff résumé in the country, boasting wins against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. Beating the Bulldogs for a second time would elevate the Tide further.
And given the desperation that should be inherent for Alabama, betting on that slight upset makes sense. Should the Tide be knocked out of the Playoff field if they lose in the SEC championship game?
No. The selection committee has explicitly said it will not unduly punish teams for losing in conference championship games.
“If you lose it, theoretically it’s not supposed to hurt you,” former committee chair Mack Rhoades said earlier this season. (Rhoades has since been removed from both the committee and as Baylor’s AD due to personal reasons.) “Could it hurt you? If it was a game where it wasn’t competitive and you completely got blown away, then that would be a conversation, candidly, in the room amongst the committee.”
That lends further credibility to an already obvious and rhetorical wonder of how much anyone could really knock Georgia for suffering just two losses this season, both of them to Alabama. Texas Tech figures to delight from a conference championship, but keep the Bulldogs at No. 5 beyond that.
The biggest wonder in this Playoff field is clearly if Miami will leap into consideration ahead of Notre Dame.
Current @FDSportsbook odds to make the Playoff, far from the most accurate assessment when looking at a committee, but still notable:
Notre Dame -375
Miami +540
Texas +1800Oklahoma making the Playoff isn't even listed. Missing is at +2200. https://t.co/8sP9Rz0MGw
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 2, 2025
To anyone trying to tell you, “ND is out,” please encourage them to shout at trees, as you are too smart to engage in their irrational ranting.
The committee has made it clear that losing to ho-hum teams will be punished. Miami losing to SMU and Louisville thus costs the Hurricanes.
If that bothers Miami, there is an approach it should take next season: Beat the bad teams on the schedule.
Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Team | Conference |  |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State Buckeyes | Big Ten | <<-130>> |
| Indiana Hoosiers | Big Ten | <<+150>> |
| Georgia Bulldogs | SEC | <<+290>> |
| Oregon Ducks | Big Ten | <<+400>> |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | Big 12 | <<+430>> |
| Texas A&M Aggies | SEC | <<+470>> |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Independent | <<+550>> |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | SEC | <<+600>> |
| Mississippi Rebels | SEC | <<+1000>> |
| Oklahoma Sooners | SEC | <<+2700>> |
| Miami Hurricanes | ACC | <<+6000>> |
| North Texas Mean Green | AAC | <<+10000>> |
| Virginia Cavaliers | ACC | <<+12500>> |
| BYU Cougars | Big 12 | <<+20000>> |
| Tulane Green Wave | AAC | <<+22500>> |
Important dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 19-20 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. the winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. the winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs. the winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs. the winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 8 | Fiesta Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 9 | Peach Bowl |
| Championship | January 19 | CFP National Championship Game |
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
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