Notre Dame vs. Miami playoff debate has become a tired one, continues to rage on despite probably already having been decided
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Notre Dame football is in a very unique spot when it comes to the College Football Playoff. If the season ended today, head coach Marcus Freeman and his Fighting Irish squad would be in the field, currently sitting at No. 10 in the latest poll. The issue is that the Irish have to sit back and hope a couple of things go their way this weekend during the conference championships.
With five automatic bids for conference champions being guaranteed, No. 10 in the ranking is the lowest a playoff team can be this year, firmly putting Notre Dame on the bubble. Alabama jumped them this past week, making for increased anxiety amongst the Irish fanbase. To make it as simple as possible, Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship and BYU losing to Texas Tech would make their lives a whole lot easier. If just one of those happens, the Irish will probably be good to go, but if both do, it is a near certainty.
The Miami Hurricane fanbase, however, would argue that it isn’t that easy. Although Mario Cristobal’s team sits at No. 12 and also doesn’t have a game this weekend, there is a theory going around that Miami would jump the Irish if they end up next to each other heading into the final rankings on Sunday. Basically, if BYU loses, the Hurricanes would get the nod over Notre Dame due to being in close proximity while having the head-to-head advantage. Several prominent analysts, including Joel Klatt, have backed that hypothetical.
It is pure speculation on my part, but I believe that some are completely misreading the situation, especially when it comes to the Notre Dame vs. Miami conversation. The recent Alabama move needs to be discussed a little further, as do the hypotheticals that Irish fans need to be hoping for this weekend. Miami isn’t even close to where the main concerns should lie.
What has changed in this debate?
When it comes to the Notre Dame vs. Miami debate, let’s discuss real quick. For the playoff committee, they consider four areas of criteria when making the decision who is going to make the field. Those are 1.) strength of schedule, 2.) head-to-head competition, 3.) comparative outcomes of common opponents, and 4.) other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that affect the team’s performance.
When reading that criteria, does the head-to-head section say that it’s only used when teams are close together? Does it say that it is weighted differently when the two are in the same “pod”? That is a part of the criteria that is already baked into the formula. It was considered when the most recent ranking came out.
Am I led to believe that neither football team is going to play a game this weekend after being separated by two slots, get next to one another, and then that’s when the committee will choose they deserve it more? What sense does that make? If the Hurricanes were going to be put over the Irish, it would have happened this past Tuesday night, after considering the last game action for each team.
Making a move now would make no sense and would frankly be unjust. I’m not here to argue that Notre Dame or Miami should have been placed higher than the other to begin with. The point is that the Irish have been higher from the beginning of the playoff ranking process, have continued to frontrun, and with no new data points, changing anything between the two would be ridiculous.
I choose to believe that the playoff committee is pressured by outside noise. I refuse that they would make a move after no new data points or reasons. It wouldn’t make any sense.
Why was Alabama moved up?
Everyone thinks that the Crimson Tide made the jump over Notre Dame following their 7-point victory against 5-7 Auburn to protect them in the playoff race, and I would agree. The committee clearly wants to protect Alabama from any chance of getting jumped and being knocked out of the playoffs. They are a great brand, and there has to be some inherent push for them to make the playoffs more attractive. Most understand how this business works.
One part of the protection that folks aren’t considering enough is that Alabama was placed at No. 9 in case they lost in blowout fashion. There would undoubtedly be some pressure to move the Crimson Tide down with a bad loss. With this cushion, you could move them down to No. 10 and proceed to keep both Alabama and Notre Dame in the playoff, two brands that would create some very easy viewership.
If that is a move the committee had to make, they would place a bumper between the Irish and a team like Miami. It is some extra insurance for the Crimson Tide.
There is also a chance that BYU loses a close game against Texas Tech and chooses to leave them at No. 11. The committee has said that they won’t punish teams much for losing in conference championship games. Therefore, we might never see this Miami hypothetical enacted. It is all a guessing game until Sunday, but I still feel very confident that Notre Dame will make the final field, even if it becomes a Hurricane vs. Fighting Irish debate.
This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Dec 4, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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