Giving Away Money: LSU-Alabama game analysis and point spread pick

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Conventional wisdom has it that after a coach is fired, the team goes into doldrums, plays worse, begins looking for their next destination; you face a dispirited lot. Like so much conventional wisdom, it happens to be wrong. I analyze every game, for every team, every week, and have done so for 13 years now. And what we have seen emerge the last several seasons is an undeniable trend moving the other direction — teams are showing up after their boss gets an early tee time in Malibu. Post-firing, over the last three years, interim-led underdog squads are covering 64% of the time.

That makes the visitors this week an exceptionally dangerous unit for the No. 4 Crimson Tide. In this quasi-rivalry of sorts, the LSU Tigers bring a wealth of talent, a salty defense, some underrated backs, and a senior quarterback onto Saban Field, hoping to exact some retribution for last year’s dismantling in Bryant-Denny West.

Will they play any better? Who knows. But aside from one half of being manhandled by A&M, it’s not like the Tigers have been exactly outclassed. They lost two road games to Top 10 teams by a combined 12 points. A&M just so happened to be the worst sort of matchup for LSU — a physical team with a very good pass rush, hellbent on controlling the LOS and imposing their will on the ground.

These things are, you will notice, no longer Alabama ‘s M.O.

LSU +9.5 @ Alabama

This game has dropped steadily since Sunday evening, with the line opening at -10.5, and eventually settling in with the Tide at -10 or 9.5. Today’s sponsor, FanDuel, has ‘Bama at -9.5

And, whatever you select, you’re apt to walk away a happy Gump on Saturday evening.

This game really does come down to a few simple things, at least as pertains to covering the spread. Let’s go over them:

• The Tigers are 4th in the SEC in YPG allowed through the air, and on paper resemble Alabama’s in a number of ways. Both are sub-200 YPG squads, surrendering just over 3 yards per attempt. Along with Alabama and Auburn, LSU is the only SEC team to notch more interceptions than passing TDs allowed. Both are in the 110s in passer rating surrendered. Seems dispiriting, doesn’t it? Well, that’s where the data analysis ends at the surface, and we delve deeper.
• Whereas Alabama’s defense is 6th nationally in drive efficiency surrendered, adjusting for opponent, LSU’s vaunted defense plunges to 42nd per-drive. (Balloons, this is where FEI is your friend, and SP+ is not). Sure, the Tigers are 4th in the country on a per-play basis, but the simple fact is, you can drive the field on them, despite their great scoring defense. Why is that? Glad you asked.
• Because while the Tigers interior defensive line is absolutely its critical weakness, and opens up LSU to exploitation on the ground (doubly so with an always-injured Whit Weeks), the dirtier secret is that teams have had their way converting third downs through the air as well. The Tigers are the worst team in the entire conference on third down, and third from the bottom in FD surrendered via pass. That is keeping them on the field against quality competition, and those drives that should have ended simply are not. When you look at two of the Tigers’ losses, where a drive here or there were all that separated LSU from being a Top 5 team, that inability to get off the field is killing them. And, dear reader, Alabama may be just decent on first down. And, yes, this staff is in love with second and long runs, taking years off my life. But it is very good on third downs — 50% on the season (4th SEC), yet even better in conference games (52%, 2nd SEC). Only Arkansas has been better.
• Likewise, LSU can’t stay on the field to sustain drives of their own. The RB tandem of Berry and Durham are actually underrated. They consistently churn out 5, 6, 7 yard averages. But it’s an inconsistent production, and with Nussmeier’s noted inaccuracies putting the Tigers behind the chains, LSU just can’t rely on the running game. Just as LSU is the worst SEC defense on third down, so too is it the worst SEC offense on third down as well — a disgusting 28.8% conversion rate.
• Alabama has surrendered more third downs than we’d like this year, but teams simply aren’t cashing in on them. Opponents are not getting into the red zone very often, and when they do, they’re not scoring. That’s even worse news for LSU: the Tigers are 14th in the SEC in getting TDs under 25 yards (Alabama is second, BTW). And, defensively, the Tide is first in RZ conversions allowed — just 70%, with teams scoring a TD just 55% of those trips.
• Even that stated LSU strength, turnovers, evaporates when you eyeball it a bit more. If you remove one awful DJ Lagway game, the Tigers go from a Top 3 SEC unit at forcing turnovers into one in the bottom third.
• There are other advantages that multiply against the Tigers, such as being worse at surrendering negative plays and sacks, as well as being the more heavily penalized unit, Alabama’s excellent home play in general (and undefeated under DeBoer). But, really, those are just gilding the lily. The game is going to be won and lost on third down and through ball control — and Alabama is significantly better on both sides of the ball.

Bottom Line:

A decade ago, you could pencil the Tide in for a four-touchdown throttling with these sort of deficiencies and mostly favorable matchups. But this is a smaller and more athletic ‘Bama defense keyed to stopping the pass, and an offensive line and running game that have been a bit of mess for the better part of four years. So, that kind of full-bore destruction becomes a far iffier proposition. (Doubly so without the one-man wrecking crew of Jalen Milroe to control the game on the ground. He was built for this sort of game).

That doesn’t mean that this iteration of the Tide can’t or won’t win, no matter how hard the Tigers play. LSU does have some favorable matchups that I expect them to exploit, such as passingly good games by Durham and Berry out of the backfield, the occasional miscommunication in the secondary, perhaps an interception as well. But where Alabama is better, they are much better. More importantly, the Tide are better in the ways that win meaningful ball games.

Expect another lower-scoring game, with ’Bama finishing +1 in turnover margin. But it should be a highly efficient day through the air for Simpson, especially on third down, as Alabama wins and covers. Though, it may not be decided until late, when Grubb takes the air out of the ball.

Our Call:
Alabama -13.818, something like 31-17

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Go forth and prosper, and we’ll be back to our regular schedule next week.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site:(Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month.

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