College football betting, picks, odds: Early best bets for Week 11's biggest games, including surging Texas A&M and Texas Tech
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I can’t believe Alabama-LSU isn’t a big game, either.
After the Tigers' opening week win at Clemson and the Crimson Tide’s loss at Florida State, you’d have a better chance convincing me then that this rivalry was taking a step back for opposite reasons.
That’s college football, folks.
Alabama-LSU is a qualitative depiction of how things can change in this sport. For a quantitative analysis, look no further than another game for this coming Saturday that’s lost its luster: Indiana at Penn State. Before the season, we looked ahead at the Game of the Year line of Penn State -16.5 and essentially said, “Well, that’s a little too high.” Now that we’re here, and it’s Indiana that is more than a two-touchdown favorite in State College, we can count up an unthinkable 31-point shift in perception for that matchup alone.
That’s college football betting, folks.
As we do each week, before getting into the games that most matter, we look back at what happened to shape the rest of the season — who made a big move and who shook up the college football world.
Movers
It’s weird to think of Texas as a team that needs to make a move, and it’s even stranger to credit a win over Vanderbilt as one, but the Longhorns jump back ahead of the Commodores in both the national outlook and the SEC standings by simply winning at home in a game that was a much breezier watch for those who took our advice to back Texas at under a field goal early last week.
While not a surprise, given it was favored by a touchdown over undefeated Navy, North Texas' win over the Midshipmen put it firmly back in the mix for the American Conference, as literally almost half the league has just one conference loss. It’s one of a few leagues that appears headed for an elaborate tiebreaker scenario to decide who goes to the championship game.
Two weeks after Duke blew a golden opportunity to be the favorite in the ACC by losing at home to Georgia Tech — a game it dominated throughout the first half but was unable to convert scoring opportunities — it beat Clemson despite a postgame win expectancy of less than 10%. On top of that, most of the other contenders in the conference were upset Saturday, so now Duke’s on top of the oddsboard at +300, with a palatable remaining schedule.
Shakers
One such contender was Miami, but all of a sudden it's thoroughly shaken by a loss to SMU — its second in three games. Miami’s without an inside track to the College Football Playoff and with an almost impossible route to the ACC championship game.
The Mountain West got thrown into a blender with one shocking home loss by Boise State. The 17-point favorite got beat by Fresno State, and even worse, lost quarterback Maddux Madsen for “a while.” If that time frame is more than “one week,” then an upcoming trip to 5-0 San Diego State might mean a second loss for the Broncos, and the door would be blown wide open for any number of teams to make the Mountain West title game. Given that everyone other than Boise State and San Diego State are still 12-1 or longer to win the conference, you can pick your favorite long shot and likely be engaged throughout November. Even San Jose State (35-1) has a viable path. Wink, wink.
Betting the big games for Week 11
No. 3 Texas A&M (-7, 49.5) at No. 19 Missouri
Speaking of post-bye matchups, Texas A&M hasn’t played since helping Brian Kelly get a $50 million buyout with its second-half surge in Baton Rouge — a game that saw LSU money come in before kickoff and a closing line of Aggies -1.5.
That market move underrates A&M, but it’s one late Arkansas touchdown and one point against Auburn away from six straight covers. Given the Aggies are showing all the signs of a national title contender, the Aggies being a 90 in our estimated rating system isn’t absurd.
The question is what to do with Missouri, which, before its week off, lost starting quarterback Beau Pribula for the season. This line opened -6 and is up to -7. I have Texas A&M as a 4-point favorite with Pribula playing, so there’s only been a downgrade of a figurative field goal despite freshman Matt Zollers taking the reins of the Tigers’ offense.
Maybe the assumption is the Mizzou run game will be able to make up the difference, but with two weeks for Mike Elko to prep his defense, we’re not in the business of fading the Aggies, who excel in all three phases.
Pick: Texas A&M -7
Tulane at No. 22 Memphis (-6.5, 55.5)
Two weeks ago, Memphis was a 3.5-point underdog at home to South Florida even after quarterback Brendon Lewis was ruled in after being questionable. Had he been healthy in the lead-up, and with the benefit of hindsight given that the Tigers needed a big comeback to win, a pick ’em point spread at home against the Bulls seems fair in a hypothetical rematch.
Even with that generous bump for the Tigers, who had lost to UAB the week before, you would still need to apply a significant downgrade to Tulane. It walked into an offensive buzzsaw at UTSA last week, but that’s not enough to get this line up near a full touchdown. However, there’s not much between the aforementioned cluster in the AAC standings, and we should expect a close game and for this line to drop before Friday night.
Pick: Tulane +6.5
No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech (-10, 52.5)
Undefeated BYU took a week off from infuriating teams in the Big 12 and should be fully prepared for a trip to Lubbock — if that’s even possible, on or off the field.
So, why is this line so high? This point spread is reminiscent of Cincinnati-Utah last week where we could barely get our advice to bet on the Utes published fast enough to catch up with a line that opened at -7 and closed above -10 in a game the home team won and covered with ease.
Comparing this season to last, when BYU also started undefeated, the best team the Cougars have faced is either 2024 SMU or 2024 Arizona State. If you think of a team’s power rating in the betting market out of a scale of 100, those playoff teams finished the season rated in the low 70s, which is why they were heavy underdogs in CFP games.
The Red Raiders are currently rated in the 80s, loaded with talent and capable of the same domination that Utah won with last week. Even if that takes a while. At Utah, they won the fourth quarter 24-7. Against other good Big 12 teams, with Behren Morton able to play, they outscored opponents a combined 35-6 in the fourth.
Knowing that every win needs to be convincing for fear of being left out if they don’t win the Big 12, look for the Red Raiders to keep the pedal down if they have a late lead.
Pick: Texas Tech -10
No. 6 Oregon (-6, 43.5) at Iowa
Each team comes off a bye, so they should be rested and ready for a scrap. Oregon got a bit of a taste of that hosting Wisconsin two weeks ago, and it was a bit concerning that the Ducks’ offense was only able to come up with 21 points, and QB Dante Moore had less than 100 yards passing. Meanwhile, Iowa went into its idle week coming off a 41-3 win over Minnesota and a win over Penn State that was far closer on the scoreboard than it was in the box score. An incoming upgrade in the betting market is understandable.
When it comes to both offensive- and defensive-line yard metrics, these two teams overlap, and there isn’t much difference between them when it comes to defensive success rate. Where Oregon outshines Iowa is on the offensive side of the ball, but when you filter for conference games in October, Iowa’s defense pulls away, while the offensive numbers tighten. That suggests the lowering of this point spread — that would have been closer to +10 before the season — is warranted in a possible spot to watch for an outright upset.
Pick:Iowa +6
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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