No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU – Big 12 Championship – prediction: Odds, expert picks, top players and stats

The No. 4 Red Raiders of Texas Tech (11-1) square off Saturday against the No. 11 BYU Cougars (11-1) in the Big 12 Championship game.

This is Texas Tech's first-ever Big 12 title game. During the regular season they smacked BYU, 29-7, in Lubbock. The story that Saturday was Tech's defense shutting down BYU's potent ground game and forcing three turnovers in the process. Led by LJ Martin, the Cougars must be better running the ball.

It looks like BYU must win to reach the College Football Playoff while a Texas Tech win assures them of a Top 4 seed.

Lets dive into the numbers and names for each school.

Game Details and How to Watch Texas Tech vs. BYU

• Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
• Time: 11:00AM Eastern
• Site: AT&T Stadium
• City: Arlington, TX
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Texas Tech vs. BYU

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Texas Tech (-550), BYU (+410)
• Spread: Texas Tech -12.5 (-115)
• Total: 49.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head Coach: Joey Maguire
2025 Record: 11-1 (8-1)
Offense Ranking: 2
Defense Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: 54

Texas Tech has emerged as one of the nation’s most complete teams, sitting 11-1 with the No. 3 overall SP+ ranking behind a S-tier offense (No. 2 Off. SP+) and vicious defense (No. 4 Def. SP+). HC Joey McGuire’s squad overwhelms opponents with tempo and precision, ranking 4th nationally in plays per game (75.2) while averaging 6.51 yards per play and 3.06 points per drive. Defensively, the Red Raiders have been suffocating, leading the country in yards allowed per drive (19.8) and EPA/play (-0.27), while allowing just 0.84 points per drive, good for second nationally. Texas Tech’s havoc-heavy front seven and opportunistic defense have produced a +13 turnover margin and the No. 1 rushing defense (3.3 yards per carry), powering a Top 5 team on both sides of the ball. With a 31.9-point average scoring margin and a 91.7% cover rate against the spread, Tech is a legitimate National Title contender.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Offense

Texas Tech’s offense is a high-speed, precision machine that ranks 2nd nationally in Offensive SP+ and thrives on tempo, efficiency, and explosiveness. The Red Raiders average 6.51 yards per play and 3.06 points per drive, pairing a 45.9% success rate with the nation’s 5th-highest rate of 20+ yard plays (9.4%). Their offensive line is among the best in college football, allowing pressure on just 1.7% of dropbacks — 4th nationally — which gives their quarterbacks time to post a 66.7% completion rate and 10.5 adjusted net yards per attempt. With a Top 10 third-down conversion rate (51.4%) and a blistering pace (24.0 seconds per play), Texas Tech consistently keeps defenses on their heels and the scoreboard moving.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Offense: QB Behren Morton

Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton has delivered a poised, efficient campaign as the Red Raiders’ primary (albeit brittle) signal-caller, completing 67.8% of his passes for 2,428 yards and a strong 20-to-4 TD-INT ratio. He ranks among the Big 12’s most accurate deep passers, averaging 13.4 yards per completion and 9.9 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) while maintaining a 72.0 Total QBR. Morton’s decision-making under pressure has been excellent, taking sacks on just 5.3% of dropbacks despite a 24.2% sack-to-pressure rate, reflecting both composure and system efficiency. He’s not going to run much (2.56 YPC, 33.3% success rate), but Morton’s steady command of the offense and downfield timing make him a worthy conductor of Texas Tech’s second-ranked offense.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Defense

Texas Tech’s defense is a ruthless, Top 5 unit that combines physical dominance with relentless disruption. The Red Raiders rank 4th nationally in Defensive SP+, leading the country in EPA/play (-0.27) and yards allowed per drive (19.8) while holding opponents to just 0.84 points per drive. Their front seven is suffocating, giving up only 3.3 yards per rush and generating a 39.0% pressure rate and 7.6% sack rate, all while forcing a +13 turnover margin on the season. With an 88.6% tackle success rate and the No. 1 linebacker havoc rate (11.2%), Joey McGuire’s defense punishes mistakes and smothers opponents with elite speed, leverage, and discipline.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Defense: Edge David Bailey

Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey has emerged as one of the most dominant defensive forces in the nation, wreaking havoc with elite production and relentless pressure. Across 11 games, Bailey has totaled 57 tackles, 18.5 TFLs, and a team-best 12.5 sacks, generating a staggering 62 total pressures and a 21.5% pressure rate on 288 pass-rush snaps. His explosiveness off the edge has translated to 13 sacks created, two forced fumbles, and a 2.59-second average to first pressure, making him a constant disruptor in opposing backfields. With a 91.9% tackle rate and rare blend of speed and power, Bailey anchors one of the nation’s most aggressive defenses as its premier playmaker.

BYU Cougars

Head Coach: Kalani Sitake
2025 Record: 11-1 (8-1)
Offense Ranking: 20
Defense Ranking: 20
Strength of Schedule: 27

BYU is in the midst of a stellar 2025 campaign, sitting at 11-1 and ranked 14th in SP+ with a Top 20 offense and defense. Kalani Sitake’s squad thrives on efficiency rather than explosiveness, ranking 37th in offensive success rate and 32nd defensively, while generating one of the nation’s best turnover margins (+12). The Cougars’ ground game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, anchors an offense that ranks 28th in points per drive and dominates time of possession behind a disciplined offensive line that allows pressure on just 2.2% of dropbacks. Defensively, Jay Hill’s unit is stingy in scoring situations, allowing only 3.55 points per scoring opportunity (10th nationally) and a red-zone touchdown rate of 41.9% (6th). With a résumé bolstered by wins over Utah, Arizona, and TCU, BYU positions itself as a dark-horse CFP contender heading into the Texas Tech rematch.

The BYU Cougars Offense

BYU’s offense operates with surgical efficiency, ranking 20th nationally in SP+ offense and thriving through consistency rather than tempo or explosiveness. The Cougars average 6.1 yards per play and convert 76.5% of downs, driven by a rushing attack that gains 5.1 yards per carry and ranks 22nd in EPA per rush. Quarterback play behind true freshman signal caller Bear Bachmeier has been both efficient and explosive, recording 10.1 adjusted net yards per attempt with a 1.2% interception rate that ranks among the nation’s elite. Despite their plodding pace (120th in seconds per play), Aaron Roderick’s offense methodically controls drives, scoring 2.83 points per possession and ranking 45th nationally in finishing drives — a testament to the Cougars’ precision, discipline, and physicality up front.

BYU Player to Watch on Offense: RB LJ Martin

LJ Martin powers BYU’s offense with a blend of physicality and efficiency, serving as the Cougars’ workhorse back and a reliable safety valve in the passing game. He’s totaled 1,229 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 217 carries, averaging 5.66 yards per rush with a 50.2% success rate and 0 fumbles, showing both durability and ball security. Martin consistently creates yards after contact — averaging 3.86 per rush — while converting over a third of his carries into first downs (35.9%). As a receiver, he catches 93.5% of his targets for 224 yards, giving BYU’s offense a dependable outlet who extends drives and thrives in short-yardage and red-zone situations.

The BYU Cougars Defense

BYU’s defense has evolved into a disciplined, opportunistic unit that ranks 20th in Defensive SP+ and 16th nationally in points allowed per drive (1.53). Jay Hill’s group is holding opponents to a 38.2% success rate and a red-zone touchdown rate of just 41.9%, both among the Top 10 in the country. The Cougars generate steady disruption with a 33.0% pressure rate and a +12 turnover margin, complementing their bend-but-don’t-break philosophy with timely havoc plays. Anchored by strong situational football and Top 15 metrics in both EPA/play (-0.08) and finishing drives, BYU’s defense consistently flips field position and keeps opponents out of rhythm all game long.

BYU Player to Watch on Defense: LB Jack Kelly

Jack Kelly is the heartbeat of BYU’s defense, combining elite production with relentless playmaking instincts from his inside linebacker spot. He leads the Cougars with 60 tackles and an incredible 18 havoc plays, highlighted by 13.5 tackles for loss and 9 sacks, all while maintaining an 83.3% tackle rate that underscores his dependability. Kelly’s 23.9% pressure rate on 71 rushes ranks among the best in the nation for a linebacker, and his ability to force negative plays — including two forced fumbles and five run stops — anchors Jay Hill’s aggressive front. His blend of speed, timing, and discipline makes him the engine of BYU’s defense and one of the most disruptive second-level defenders in college football.

Texas Tech and BYU: Team stats, Betting trends

• Texas Tech has won 17 of its last 20 home games
• Texas Tech is 11-1 ATS this season
• The OVER has cashed in 5 of Texas Tech’s 12 games this season (5-7)
• BYU is 9-3 ATS this season
• The OVER has cashed in 6 of BYU’s 12 games this season (6-6)

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Behren Morton UNDER 248.5 Passing Yards

BYU Pass D is sound, averaging 15th EPA/dropback, while Texas Tech ripped them for 196 yards on the ground on 38 carries (5.2). QB Behren Morton was inefficient going 17-32 for 219 yards and a 53rd% Pass Grade, 5 sacks and 2 TWP’s that weren’t Intercepted. I think Tech can move the ball incrementally down the field on the ground against an inferior BYU front and needs to keep the extremely brittle Morton healthy for the Playoff, when they simply cannot afford to trot out Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis in a high-profile setting. With Morton throwing for Under 250 yards in five of the 7 Big 12 contests he’s played in, I am taking his Under 248.5 Passing Yards line.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Texas Tech and BYU

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the BYU Cougars at +12.5.
• Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 49.5.

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