ESPN predicts the final score of Alabama football vs. Georgia

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This year’s SEC Championship Game matchup has become a familiar one. For the fourth time since 2018, and the fifth time overall, the Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Georgia Bulldogs in Atlanta.

A win and the Crimson Tide (10-2, 7-1 SEC) are officially back in the College Football Playoff after a one-year absence in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season in Tuscaloosa.

A loss, and Alabama would leave its playoff fate in the hands of a notoriously unpredictable committee that seems to make up its mind — whether it’s to the Crimson Tide’s advantage or not — from week to week.

Alabama is ranked No. 10 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 9 in the latest CFP rankings after passing committee darling Notre Dame. Georgia (11-1, 7-1) is No. 3 in both the top 25 polls and CFP rankings.

The Crimson Tide are coming off a 27-20 win over rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Ty Simpson hit Isaiah Horton for a 6-yard touchdown and the go-ahead score on fourth-and-2 with 3:50 remaining. Bray Hubbard forced a fumble with Auburn driving at the Alabama 20-yard line with 33 seconds to play.

Georgia defeated Georgia Tech, 16-7, in a defensive struggle on Friday. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was held to 70 yards passing but threw the game’s only touchdown on a third-and-5 pass to Zachariah Branch from the Yellow Jackets’ 7-yard line late in the first half.

Will Alabama beat Georgia again in Atlanta, or will the Bulldogs claim their second straight SEC title and finally tame the Tide in Atlanta?

Will Alabama beat Georgia for SEC championship? ESPN makes prediction?

Ahead of Alabama-Georgia in the 2025 SEC Championship Game, ESPN’s Bill Connelly predicted who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Bulldogs winning by three points over the Crimson Tide, which closely mirrors what oddsmakers are saying.

Connelly’s final score prediction: Georgia 27, Alabama 24.

He gives the Bulldogs a win probability of 57%.

Alabama is seeking its fourth straight win over Georgia, and its fifth win against the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game. Alabama has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in the series dating back to 2008.

Earlier this year, Alabama defeated Georgia, 24-21, on Sept. 27 at Sanford Stadium in Athens. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series vs. the Bulldogs, 45-26-4. Alabama is 4-0 against Georgia in the SEC title game.

Where Alabama football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering SEC championship game

Alabama is No. 12 in the overall ESPN SP+ team rankings, down two spots from last week. The Crimson Tide have an overall rating of 20.6 (down from 21.0 last week). Alabama is one spot ahead of the Oklahoma Sooners (19.3), and one spot behind the Vanderbilt Commodores (20.9) in ESPN’s team rankings.

To break down Alabama’s rating by units, SP+ gives the Crimson Tide a 35.3 rating on offense (No. 22 nationally), and a 14.2 rating on defense (No. 6). In special teams, Alabama is given a -0.5 rating, which ranks 100th nationally (up two spots from a week ago).

Georgia is No. 6 in the SP+ team rankings with an overall rating of 23.4. The metrics give the Bulldogs a 37.2 rating on offense (No. 15 nationally), a 14.6 rating on defense (No. 8), and a 0.7 rating in special teams (No. 4).

Alabama football strength of schedule ranking updated entering SEC championship

In ESPN’s résumé SP+, Alabama is ranked with the nation’s 15th best strength of schedule, down four spots from last week. The Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule is ranked one spot behind that of the Iowa Hawkeyes, and one spot ahead of Oklahoma.

In the overall résumé SP+ ratings, Alabama has a rating of -21.4. For comparison, Indiana tops the ratings with a 5.0 résumé SP+ rating.

Georgia is ranked with the nation’s 36th best strength of schedule in ESPN’s SP+ metrics.

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

“SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does,” he adds.

Alabama football vs. Georgia start time, channel

Kickoff for Alabama-Georgia in the 2025 SEC Championship Game is 3 p.m. CT Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be televised on ABC.

Alabama football schedule 2025

Here’s a game by game look at Alabama’s 2025 schedule.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)
  • Dec. 6: vs. Georgia, 3 p.m.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football vs Georgia final score prediction from ESPN

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