BYU vs. Texas Tech Big 12 Championship Prediction and Game Preview
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
College football’s championship weekend continues with BYU and Texas Tech meeting in the Big 12 title game on Saturday. This is the first appearance for both the Cougars and the Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship. Additionally, it’s a rematch of a regular season matchup that Texas Tech won easily 29-7.
After a busy offseason of staff upgrades and roster improvements from the portal, coach Joey McGuire has guided Texas Tech to a place among the nation’s best entering Saturday’s contest. The Red Raiders ranked No. 4 in this week’s College Football Playoff selection committee top 25 and are likely to claim a first-round bye with a victory on Saturday. Dominant is the best way to sum up Texas Tech’s ‘25 season. The Red Raiders won all 11 of their games by 20 or more points, with the team’s only defeat coming on the road at Arizona State (26-22 on Oct. 18). Even with a loss to BYU in the Big 12 title game, Texas Tech is safely into the 12-team field. But the stakes are high, as a win would position McGuire’s team with a chance to be a win away from a semifinal appearance.
Although Saturday’s matchup has a ton at stake for Texas Tech, BYU has even more to gain with a victory. The Cougars (11-1) ranked No. 11 in this week’s playoff selection committee top 25 and need a win to make the 12-team field. With a loss, BYU doesn’t have a viable path to the playoff. A victory would also cap a week of good news in Provo, as coach Kalani Sitake inked an extension with the school after interest from Penn State. The Cougars’ only defeat in the regular season came at Texas Tech. The program’s 11 victories included quality wins over BYU, Arizona, East Carolina, and Iowa State.
Texas Tech holds a 2-1 series edge over BYU. Prior to this season, the only previous meetings between these two teams took place in ’23 and 1940.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Odds and Info (Big 12 Championship)
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 6 at Noon ET
TV: ABC
Spread: Texas Tech -12.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Kris Budden, Katie George
BYU vs. Texas Tech Keys to Victory
Why Texas Tech Will Win
It’s dangerous to assume the rematch between these two teams will play out exactly like the first one. However, that matchup showcased just how hard it will be for BYU to pull off the upset.
In that first meeting, Texas Tech’s standout defensive front anchored by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height limited BYU’s rushing attack to just 67 yards. By holding the Cougars in check, all of the pressure to win fell on the right arm of freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Although Bachmeier is a rising star, it’s a tough ask against this defense. Additionally, while Texas Tech recorded only one sack in that matchup, its defense was able to generate solid pressure Bachmeier throughout the game and never allowed BYU’s offense to get any rhythm or consistency.
Texas Tech’s defense ranks fifth nationally in success rate and is holding opponents to just 11.3 points a contest. If BYU loses the battle up front once again, the Red Raiders will keep this offense in check and the rematch will play out a lot like the first game.
In addition to McGuire’s defense, the Cougars have to contend with Texas Tech’s high-powered offense. Despite dealing with a leg injury for a chunk of the second half of ‘25, quarterback Behren Morton has passed for 2,428 yards and 20 touchdowns and guides an offense that averages 43.2 points a contest.
In addition to Morton, Texas Tech has a deep cast of playmakers that includes running backs Cameron Dickey (1,023 yards) and J’Koby Williams (707). On the outside, receivers Caleb Douglas (53 catches), Reggie Virgil and Coy Eakin and tight end Terrance Carter provide a deep cast of playmakers to test a BYU secondary ranked No. 41 nationally in success rate.
With Texas Tech’s dominant defense and a prolific offense playing at a high level entering the Big 12 title, BYU will have to play a perfect game on Saturday to pull off the upset.
Why BYU Will Win
Could the first loss provide a blueprint for how BYU can attack Texas Tech this time around? On paper, the Red Raiders are the better team. However, the Cougars should be able to tweak their approach to have a better chance at the upset.
Any path to a victory on Saturday for Sitake’s team has to start with winning in the trenches and better play by the offensive line. In the first meeting, Bachmeier faced too much pressure, and the rushing attack was limited to a season-low 67 yards. Running back LJ Martin (1,229 yards in ’25) needs to get on track early to limit the pressure on Bachmeier and not put the offense in long-yardage situations on third down.
In the first meeting, Bachmeier completed 23 of 38 passes for 188 yards, a touchdown, and one interception. Additionally, only one completion went longer than 20 yards in that game. Although Bachmeier has room to improve in overall play, the freshman needs a consistent ground attack, which would help setup shots downfield to create big plays.
BYU’s defense held its own in the first meeting and limited the Red Raiders to 4.9 yards a play. Sitake’s group sacked quarterback Behren Morton four times and held in the red zone by forcing Texas Tech to kick five field goals.
A similar formula would be key on Saturday. If BYU’s defense can hold on the ground and pressure Morton again on third downs, they can limit Texas Tech’s explosive offense to three points (and not seven) on scoring drives.
Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech 31, BYU 17
Both teams have plenty at stake. BYU needs a win to make the playoff, while Texas Tech can lock up a first-round bye with a victory. The Cougars will have a better plan of attack for the rematch. However, the Red Raiders simply have too much on both sides of the ball and pull away in the second half.
ATS: Texas Tech -12.5
Over/Under: Under 49.5
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2025-26
Related: Heisman Trophy Rankings: Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin Finally Meet in Big Ten Title Game
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 6, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos