A Buckeye fan predicts every game of the College Football Playoff
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I was high above Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night in the pressbox for the Hoosiers’ heavyweight 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. When I woke up on Sunday morning, I was disappointed, but I also realized that our beloved Buckeyes got beaten by the better team on the night, but still had numerous opportunities to win, despite clearly not playing their best.
So, after suffering through the bumpy ride on the horribly maintained Indiana portion of I-70 (an appropriate metaphor for the game the night before), I am back in Columbus, getting ready to fly home to Florida. But fortunately, the sporting world gave me something to take my mind off of OSU’s poor performance with the release of the official College Football Playoff. So, I am going to focus on the future by predicting every game of the CFP, whether we know the official matchups or not.
For odds purposes, I am using FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds, but I am not a sports-betting expert, so gamble accordingly.
CFP First Round
No. 9 Alabama (-2.5) at No. 8 Oklahoma | Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
The statistics say that it is extremely difficult to beat a team twice in one season. In the 21st Century, such rematches have happened only 12 times, and in the last nine, the team that won the first game lost the second. And since I am going to reference this stat again later in a more important game, I am going to use it to justify picking the Tide to beat OU, despite the fact that the Sooners beat ’Bama 23-21 on Nov. 15.
Alabama has struggled in recent weeks, but I think that the nearly two weeks off will give them enough time to get some things figured out and back on track.
Predicted winner: No. 9 Alabama
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5) | Saturday, Dec. 20 at 12 noon ET
With all due respect to Texas A&M, for all of the complaints that the national media had about the Buckeyes’ opponents throughout the season, following the Aggies’ Week 2, one-point win over Notre Dame, they didn’t play anyone with a pulse until losing to Texas in their regular-season finale.
On the other hand, while Miami has lost twice this season, the Canes have looked great over the past month. And given how close they were to not making the CFP, I think The U will be extra motivated to prove that they deserved the opportunity.
Predicted winner: No. 10 Miami
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5) | Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
I would love to pick one of the Group of 5 teams to win and recreate some of the excitement from Boise State’s 2007 Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, but I just don’t see it happening. I don’t exactly know what to think of the Rebels coming into this game without their head coach, who has left for LSU, but their offensive coordinator still around to call plays, despite taking the same position at Baton Rouge.
Regardless, I am going Hot Toddy over Green Wave in this one.
Predicted winner: No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-21.5) | Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET
JMU is a great story, and I am genuinely thrilled that they are in the field, but I think the Cinderella story stops here. Oregon’s only loss on the season was against the best team in the country, and otherwise, they have looked very good. Perhaps not as good as last season, but I do imagine they will get their first win in the 12-team CFP this year.
Predicted winner: No. 5 Oregon
CFP Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State | Wednesday, Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
The last time these two teams played in a postseason game, I was there on Jan. 3, 2023, at Sun Devil Stadium to see Jim Tressel and company bring home the program’s first national title in 35 years. That season and that win really jump-started the reformation of the Ohio State program as a national power.
Miami is a very good team with lots of firepower, but I think that — like last year — the Buckeyes will take a frustrating 13-10 loss, which included a late missed field goal, and turn it into the motivation they need to fuel another epic postseason run.
Predicted winner: No. 2 Ohio State
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech | Thursday, Jan. 1 at 12 noon ET
I think that for most of the season, college football fans (myself included) overlooked Texas Tech, because what even is the Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma? Well, my friends, I think that the Oregon Ducks are going to find out just who this Red Raider team is on New Year’s Day. Aside from Indiana, Texas Tech has perhaps the most balanced squad in college football on both sides of the ball. Sure, you can question if they have played a schedule strong enough for us to truly know how good they are, but they are a fast and fun team, led by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who might just deserve a Heisman Trophy invite.
So, I think it will be a competitive game, but ultimately, the Raiders’ dream season will continue into the semis.
Predicted winner: No. 4 Texas Tech
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana | Thursday, Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
One team’s colors are cream and crimson, and the other’s are crimson and white. Well, as they say, the cream always rises to the top. I was really torn on putting ‘Bama through over Oklahoma, but regardless of who wins that SEC rematch, I think that the Hoosiers will thoroughly dominate them. Both the Tide and Sooners are good teams, but are limited in certain aspects, while IU is as ferocious a team on both sides of the ball in the sport.
Predicted winner: No. 1 Indiana
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia | Thursday, Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET
Georgia beat Ole Miss 43-35 in mid-October, and while I hesitate to pick a team to beat the same opponent twice in one year, I think that UGA is rounding into form at the perfect time. Kirby Smart’s squad had some stumbles (even in wins) this season, but they seem to have figured themselves out down the stretch, highlighted by thoroughly beating Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
If you throw in the coaching turnover turmoil in Oxford, I think this lines up really well for the Dawgs.
Predicted winner: No. 3 Georgia
CFP Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State | Thursday, Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State has never beaten Georgia in football, losing the 1992 Citrus Bowl 21-14 and the 2022 Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal 42-41. I believe now is the time for the Buckeyes to buck that trend. It is rare for me to ever look back on a loss and remember it as a success, but I thought that Ryan Day’s playcalling in that Peach Bowl was fantastic; but it was the defensive secondary that let the team down.
I think that Day will use that game as inspiration and as an opportunity to fine-tune things before a national title game. So give me my first, Brutus, in this one.
Predicted winner: No. 2 Ohio State
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana | Friday, Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET
This very well might be my most interesting non-OSU matchup in the bracket. Both of these teams are supremely talented and skilled on both sides of the ball, so it should be a football-lover’s dream. Ultimately, I think that Indiana is just so damn well-coached that they will have the edge.
Predicted winner: No. 1 Indiana
College Football Playoff National Title Game
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Indiana | Monday, Jan. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET
On Sunday, just about 13 hours after losing in Indianapolis, Ryan Day said:
“It was clear that we were not at our best, coaches and players. We need to be moving forward. This is certainly an opportunity for us to learn from that game… The idea of leaving no doubt did not happen the other night.”
The last time we heard him talk like that was after the 2024 Michigan loss, and we saw what happened from there.
Despite being outplayed and outcoached by Indiana, the Buckeyes had multiple opportunities to win that game, and I have full confidence in the coaching staff to regroup, refocus, and fix the things that went wrong. I am certainly not currently as confident as I was before Saturday’s game, but I am not veering from my belief that they will win the national title.
Predicted winner: No. 2 Ohio State
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