Predicting Every College Football Playoff Game: Who Wins It All?
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Enough with all of the controversy and complaining – what will happen in each of the 11 College Football Playoff games?
We’ll do our deep dive game previews for all of the CFP games over the next few days, and that’s when the final call will come for each one.
But first, without getting into the research, analysis, and breakdowns, here are the gut-reaction picks on each game and who will win the College Football Playoff National Championship. | @PeteFiutak
Early Predictions for All 11 College Football Playoff Games and Who Wins the National Title
(9 Alabama at (8) Oklahoma
No Research Instant Analysis: Alabama was given every possible benefit of every possible doubt to get here over Notre Dame and an 11-win BYU, and now it’s about to justify the College Football Playoff committee’s undying faith in … nope.
The Oklahoma defense will rise up and rock at home in one of the most energized settings Norman has seen in a long, long time. This will be a much different offense than we saw over the last few weeks – watch what John Mateer is like with some real time off.
The Tide will score late to make this closer than it really will be.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Oklahoma 24, Alabama 20
Line: Oklahoma -1.5, o/u: 40.5
(10) Miami at (7) Texas A&M
No Research Instant Analysis: Miami was given every possible benefit of every possible doubt to get here over Notre Dame and an 11-win BYU, and now it’s about to justify the College Football Playoff committee’s undying faith in … yup.
Lost in the CFP’s twisting of logic and reason to shoehorn the Hurricanes is that, yeah, they have everything in place to win the whole thing.
Texas A&M has the lines, the talent, and the home-field advantage, and Miami hasn’t been great on the road, but the Hurricane NFL talent will show up and play very, very large.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Miami 30, Texas A&M 23
Line: Texas A&M -4, o/u: 51.5
(11) Tulane at (6) Ole Miss
No Research Instant Analysis: Ole Miss won the first meeting between the two back in September. It was 45-10, and this one will be only slightly less ugly … for a half. The Green Wave will score first, and that will be it. Ole Miss will be playing against Lane Kiffin more than Tulane as it opens up in the second half.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Ole Miss 41, Tulane 13
Line: Ole Miss -17.5, o/u: 56.5
(12) James Madison at (5) Oregon
No Research Instant Analysis: Green Bay at Chicago starts at 8:20 pm ET on FOX. Enjoy!
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Oregon 52, James Madison 6
Line: Oregon -21, o/u: 50.5
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
These are our projected CFP Quarterfinal matchups based on our guess of what will happen in the first round
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
(10) Miami vs (2) Ohio State
No Research Instant Analysis: Ohio State got too jacked up for Michigan. That was the game it had to have. It played it too close to the vest against Indiana, and now, get ready to see what this team looks like when it FINALLY puts it into third gear from the start.
Miami has the speed and talent to pull this off, but Carson Beck will throw three picks, the Buckeyes will be air-tight, and the “here we go” feeling about this Ohio State team will hit everyone fast.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Ohio State 30, Miami 16
Capital One Orange Bowl
(5) Oregon vs (4) Texas Tech
No Research Instant Analysis: The problem is that we really haven’t seen Texas Tech when it’s playing anyone truly elite. BYU was fine, and Utah solid, but … Oregon is a whole new level of issues.
The Ducks will be coming off the total wipeout of James Madison and playing up to speed. I’m flip-flopping on this, and I might change my tune when I put some real thought into it, but for right now, VERY sheepishly …
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Oregon 26, Texas Tech 24
Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential
(8) Oklahoma vs (1) Indiana
No Research Instant Analysis: It’ll be interesting to see how Indiana plays in the role of Goliath. This is no longer a cute little story.
This is the No. 1 team in America with the minerals, and the (maybe) newly minted Heisman winner, Fernando Mendoza, and they’re expected to win a game like this.
It’s the Rose Bowl, Oklahoma will relish the underdog role, and it’ll be an ugly first half full of big defensive performances. The Hoosiers will get by on defense, but it won’t be anything as gorgeous as the setting.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Indiana 27, Oklahoma 17
Allstate Sugar Bowl
(6) Ole Miss vs (3) Georgia
No Research Instant Analysis: Ole Miss will have its cathartic, Kiffin-cleansing blowout win in Oxford over Tulane, and then reality and the Georgia Bulldogs will come to breakfast.
This will be a no-nonsense, business-like day of dominance for the Bulldogs as they have a much, much easier time than they did in the 43-35 win the first time around. The Bulldog defense will make a statement that the national championship might go through this bunch.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Georgia 34, Ole Miss 16
College Football Playoff Semifinals
These are our projected CFP Semifinal matchups based on our guess of what will happen in the first two rounds
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
(3) Georgia vs (2) Ohio State
No Research Instant Analysis: This is the national championship, and it’ll be fantastic. The two defenses will put on a clinic, both offenses will be suffocated throughout, and it’ll take one side getting out of its shell and take a few chances.
Julian Sayin will get over a rough first half with quick-hitting passes that start to open things up, and then the breakthrough moment will happen with a fourth-and-goal touchdown run from the one to push ahead. A Buckeye interception on the ensuing drive will seal it.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Ohio State 23, Georgia 20
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
(5) Oregon vs (1) Indiana
No Research Instant Analysis: This is when stuff’s going to get super-real for the Hoosiers. They’ll come in with the Cignetti confidence, led by a defense that held up in the 30-20 win in Eugene.
And then Dante Moore will show the NFL scouts that he, and not Fernando Mendoza, might really be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Moore’s only two-pick game of the season came against the Hoosiers, and he’ll make up for it with a razor-sharp fourth quarter to pull out a thriller that will go down as one of the best games of the College Football Playoff era.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Oregon 34, Indiana 30
College Football Playoff National Championship
(5) Oregon vs (2) Ohio State
No Research Instant Analysis: A rematch of the first College Football Playoff National Championship will be an assumed coronation of the Buckeyes as they take their second straight national title, but they’re going to have to earn it.
Oregon will come out smoking, Ohio State won’t go anywhere, and all the energy in Miami will be on the Duck side of the field. Dante Moore will be good, the Oregon defense will be better, and then halftime will end, and a totally different Ohio State team will come back out on the field.
It’ll take about ten minutes for the Buckeyes to take the lead, and one more drive after that to assume full control on the way to the national title … and 20 minutes later, someone will complain that Ryan Day hasn’t won a Big Ten Championship since 2020.
First Thought Bowl Prediction
Ohio State 30, Oregon 23
Related: Bowl Predictions: First-Thought Picks for All 41 Bowl Games
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 9, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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