Army vs. Navy prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The greatest rivalry in sports is renewed Saturday in Baltimore when Army takes the field at M&T Stadium against Navy for the 126th time. The Army-Navy game is unique in college football, known for its deep-rooted traditions and the immense pride associated with national service. As the saying goes, "None of the games that happened before this matter" when it comes to this specific matchup.

Navy enters the game with a 9-2 overall record (7-1 in the American Athletic Conference), while Army holds a 6-5 record (4-4 in the AAC). Immeasurable bragging rights and the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy are on the line. The Black Knights have won six of the last nine games in this rivalry, but the Midshipmen won last season's game, 31-13. As a result, Navy leads the all-time series 63-55-7.

Lets dive into the academies, a few of the top players, and the stats that make up each side.

Game Details and How to Watch Army vs. Navy

• Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
• Time: 3:00 PM Eastern
• Site: M&T Stadium
• City: Baltimore, MD
• TV/Streaming: CBS

Game Odds for Army at Navy

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Army (+200), Navy (-245)
• Spread: Navy -6 (-112)
• Total: 38.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Army Black Knights

Head Coach: Jeff Monken
2025 Record: 6-5 (4-4)
Offense Ranking: 100
Defense Ranking: 55
Strength of Schedule: 92

Army is once again a methodical, run-centric outfit that grinded out a 6–5 record despite underlying metrics suggesting closer to a four-win performance (4.2 second-order wins). The Black Knights lean heavily on their triple-option identity, ranking No. 1 nationally in both standard-downs and passing-downs run rate. Their defense remains sturdy enough to keep them competitive, finishing 55th in SP+ despite limited havoc creation. Their year has been defined by narrow margins and volatility, with four one-score wins, several games decided by late swings, and a sizable gap between expected and actual scoring margins. Even with an offense that struggles for explosiveness and a defense that bends but rarely breaks inside the red zone, Army consistently drags opponents into slow, possession-controlled games. Entering the Navy matchup, the Knights remain a resilient, unpredictable team capable of outperforming projections when they dictate tempo and avoid turnover regression.

Army Black Knights Offense

Army’s offense is an extreme run-heavy operation, leading the nation in both standard-downs run rate (90.2%) and passing-downs run rate (72.3%) while operating at one of the slowest tempos in college football at 30.4 seconds per snap. The unit struggles to create big plays, ranking bottom five nationally in marginal explosiveness and yards per successful play, yet still manages steady efficiency with a 41.3% success rate built on staying ahead of the chains. Their passing game is highly selective but surprisingly potent when deployed, ranking Top 10 nationally in adjusted net yards per attempt and producing one of the highest rates of 20+-yard completions despite completing just 51.9% of passes. Ultimately, the offense embodies classic service-academy DNA: low-variance, ball-control football that minimizes mistakes, avoids negative plays, and forces opponents to win a limited-possession game on Army’s terms.

Army Player to Watch on Offense: QB Cale Hellums

Army quarterback Cale Hellums embodies the Black Knights’ ground-first mentality, serving as both their offensive engine and leading rusher. He has piled up 1,085 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 262 carries (4.14 YPC), converting nearly 47.3% of his runs into successful plays while shouldering an enormous workload. As a passer, Hellums has thrown for 504 yards and three touchdowns at 50.7% completion, averaging 14.4 yards per completion with an efficient 11.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). His blend of toughness, vision, and dual-threat versatility allows Army to sustain drives methodically while keeping defenses off balance with timely deep shots.

The Army Black Knights Defense

Army’s defense is a bend-but-don’t-break unit that ranks 55th in SP+ thanks to strong situational play, particularly in the red zone where it allows just 4.0 points per scoring opportunity. While the group struggles with efficiency, giving up a 44.7% success rate (116th) and generating one of the nation’s lowest havoc rates. It compensates by keeping explosive plays in check, ranking 15th in yards allowed per successful play and 23rd in explosive play rate. The secondary limits big passing shots by allowing only a 12.4% explosive completion rate, though opponents remain highly efficient underneath with a 64% completion rate. Overall, the defense rarely overwhelms opponents but consistently forces long drives, shortens games, and gives the offense enough support to keep contests within striking distance.

Army Player to Watch on Defense: OLB Kalib Fortner

Kalib Fortner was a disruptive force off the edge, piling up 75 tackles with an impressive 49 solos while maintaining an 84.3% tackle rate across 10 games. He consistently generated chaos with 11 havoc plays, including 8.5 TFLs and a sack, while also forcing and recovering a fumble to round out his impact profile. Fortner’s 21.3% pressure rate on 61 pass-rush snaps highlights his burst and efficiency as a pass rusher, producing 13 pressures and ranking among the defense’s most productive third-down disruptors with a 30.8% pressure rate. His blend of backfield penetration, run-stopping ability, and pass-rush efficiency made him the defense’s most complete front-seven defender.

Navy Midshipmen

Head Coach: Brian Newberry
2025 Record: 9-2 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 27
Defense Ranking: 89
Strength of Schedule: 71

Navy is sporting a commendable 9–2 record despite their second-order win total suggesting closer to seven wins (7.3). The Midshipmen pair one of the nation’s most efficient rushing attacks, ranking Top 10 in rushing success rate, yards per rush, and EPA per rush, with a shockingly potent downfield passing game that leads the country averaging 14.2 adjusted net yards per attempt. Their defense remains volatile but opportunistic, giving up yards yet creating timely stops and allowing Navy to win shootouts and low-possession grinders alike. Even through narrow escapes against Air Force, Temple, and USF, Navy consistently maximizes scoring opportunities and responds with explosive plays when games tighten. The result is a team whose profile blends old-school option DNA with new-era efficiency and explosiveness, making them a top-flight AAC program despite some statistical overperformance.

Navy Midshipmen Offense

Navy’s offense is one of the most efficient and explosive units in the country, ranking Top 15 nationally in success rate while pairing elite rushing efficiency with a devastating downfield passing game. The Midshipmen average 6.2 yards per rush (5th) and sit first in adjusted net yards per attempt, turning limited pass volume into massive chunk gains and nation-leading yards per successful dropback. Their option-heavy structure still shows through with the No. 2 standard-down run rate and No. 6 passing-down run rate, but unlike traditional service academies, they punish defenses vertically with a gaudy 27.8% explosive completion rate. The result is a balanced, big-play offense that stays ahead of schedule, converts scoring chances at a high level, and forces opponents to defend every blade of grass.

Navy Player to Watch on Offense: QB Blake Horvath

Blake Horvath is the catalyst of Navy’s offense with efficient passing and elite production as a runner in a system built to maximize his dual-threat skill set. Through 10 starts, he completes 61.8% of his throws for 1,390 yards with a strong 12.3 ANY/A, thriving on explosive gains at 17.2 yards per completion while keeping mistakes manageable. On the ground he is a force-multiplier, rushing for 1,075 yards and 14 touchdowns at 6.32 yards per carry with a 52.4% success rate and nearly 20% of his runs gaining 10+ yards. His blend of decision-making, explosiveness, and consistency makes him one of the most impactful option-hybrid quarterbacks in the country.

Navy Midshipmen Defense

Navy’s defense is a high-variance unit that bends frequently but comes up with enough timely stops to keep opponents from fully capitalizing, ranking 89th in SP+ while allowing a 42.7% success rate. The Midshipmen struggle to limit efficiency and explosive gains, giving up 6.07 yards per play (112th) and ranking 119th in EPA per play allowed, yet they compensate by tightening in scoring situations and generating enough havoc at the linebacker level to be feisty. Their pass defense is particularly vulnerable, surrendering big windows and high efficiency underneath, while allowing one of the nation’s highest explosive rates through the air. Still, the unit’s ability to force offenses into long drives, create occasional negative plays, and perform situationally in the red zone gives Navy just enough defensive stability to complement its elite offense.

Navy Player to Watch on Defense: DT Landon Robinson

Landon Robinson is the anchor of the defensive front, combining elite run-stopping consistency with disruptive interior penetration across 11 games. He racked up 56 tackles with an exceptional 96.6% tackle rate and leads the team with 11 havoc plays, including 9.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks, remarkable production for a defensive tackle. As a pass rusher, Robinson generated 25 pressures on 310 rushes, creating six sacks with a steady 8.1% pressure rate while delivering 20 first pressures to set up teammates. His blend of power, block destruction, and reliability make him the defense’s most complete and impactful interior defenders.

Army vs. Navy: Team Stats and Betting Trends

• Army is 5-5-1 ATS overall this season
• Navy is 4-7 ATS overall this season
• The OVER has cashed in 8 of Navy's 11 games (8-3)
• The OVER has cashed in 4 of Army's 11 games (4-7)

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Eli Heidenreich OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards

A true swiss-army knife of a football player, Eli Heidenreich lines up at WR, RB, FB or half back on any particular play, allowing QB Blake Horvath to get the ball in his hands in myriad ways. However, he’s most potent in the receiving game, where he has rung up 805 receiving yards on 40 receptions (60 targets) for a robust 20.1 YPC average. When service academies battle the traditional option-run approach can get bogged down, as both defenses are intimately familiar with the run concepts which is why I’m taking Heidenreich to clear his 48.5 receiving yards mark, a line he has beaten in 5 of his last 6 non-Notre Dame contests. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Army and Navy

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on Navy -6.0.
• Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 39.5.

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