Major College Football Coach Potentially Facing 'Playoff or Bust' in 2026
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When Lincoln Riley was hired as the head coach of the USC Trojans, many people considered it a significant success. This was largely due to his impressive five-year tenure with the Oklahoma Sooners, during which he won four Big 12 championships and led the team to three consecutive playoff appearances.
USC aimed to replicate the luck and success it had enjoyed in the past. In Year 1, Riley guided the team to an 11-3 record and the Pac-12 Championship Game, where it faced the Utah Utes for the second time that season, ultimately losing. However, the situation deteriorated each subsequent year.
In 2023, the Trojans started the season ranked No. 6 but ended with an 8-5 record. In 2024, USC had a disappointing season, finishing with a 7-6 record. However, this year marked a comeback for the team, as it finished the regular season with a 9-3 record and ranked No. 16 in the final CFP rankings. Despite this improvement, Adam Spencer from Saturday Down South believes that Riley is one of the five coaches who could be on the hot seat in the upcoming year.
“It’s probably playoff or bust for Lincoln Riley at USC in 2026,” Spencer wrote. “The Trojans came up short of a CFP berth this year, with only themselves to blame after dropping a road game at Illinois at the buzzer. The Trojans have the No. 1 recruiting class coming in for 2026, and boosters will expect to see an immediate return on their investment. Much like Michigan … though, USC has a brutal schedule. The Trojans have to face Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon and Notre Dame next season. Penn State is perhaps the ‘easiest’ game in that bunch, but it’s at Beaver Stadium. If Riley can’t get to the playoff in 2026, it’ll probably spell the end of his tenure in Los Angeles.”
USC is a private institution, so the details of Riley’s contract are unclear. However, it is reportedly a 10-year deal, and his buyout is just over $80 million if he were to be let go.
As USC moves toward 2026, the expectations surrounding Riley have never been clearer. The Trojans boast elite talent, a top-ranked recruiting class and a fanbase eager for a return to national prominence. Whether Riley can transform potential into playoff results will determine not just the team’s future, but his own standing in Los Angeles.
USC will take on the TCU Horned Frogs at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN on Dec. 30 in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 10, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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